2349 Shell Oil Rd · Robinhood, MS 39042

$115,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1996 9.80 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a fireplace in the living room and sits on acreage, offering plenty of space for outdoor use. The front yard provides additional open space for a variety of uses. A solid opportunity for buyers looking for land and room to make it their own.

Key facts

• 9.8 acre lot
• Built 1996
• Listed 44 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $777 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#182 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.96%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $39,506
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $136,744
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39042

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $777

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $857	-5% $817	+0% $777	+5% $737	+10% $698
Rent	-10% $620	-5% $699	+0% $777	+5% $856	+10% $934
Rate	-1.0pp $835	-0.5pp $806	base $777	+0.5pp $747	+1.0pp $717

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a fireplace in the living room and sits on acreage, offering plenty of space for outdoor use. The front yard provides additional open space for a variety of uses. A solid opportunity for buyers looking for land and room to make it their own.

2. 2026-04-01
   listed $115,000 Active 282-char remark

   Show marketing remark (282 chars)

   This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home features a fireplace in the living room and sits on acreage, offering plenty of space for outdoor use. The front yard provides additional open space for a variety of uses. A solid opportunity for buyers looking for land and room to make it their own.

3. 2021-10-02
   historical
4. 2017-06-26
   soldstatus
5. 2016-10-13
   listed $115,000
6. 2014-08-18
   listed $119,900
7. 2007-08-29
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $7,970
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,913
• After-tax cash flow: $7,413/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Robinhood

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #16959

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 39,142
• Household income: $88,597
• Rent vs Own: 17.4% rent · 82.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 474.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.04%
• Current HPI: 172.5248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.13%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-01 Listed $115,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2017-06-26 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2016-10-13 Listed $115,000 MLSU
• 2014-08-18 Listed $119,900 MLSU
• 2007-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $187 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.