1002 Mills Ave · Warrington, FL 32507

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2009 0.26 ac lot Est $165k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY NICE 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH WITH A LARGE INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM. OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND KITCHEN COMBINATION. SPLIT BEDROOMS. MASTER BEDROOM HAS LARGE WALK IN CLOSET WITH BATHROOM THAT HAS A TUB AND SEPARATE SHOWER, ALSO DOUBLE SINKS! THERE IS AN OPEN DECK ON THE BACK WITH A WHEEL CHAIR RAMP THAT IS ONLY 3 YEARS OLD. FENCED BACK YARD WITH A 10X20 STORAGE SHED. FRONT HAS A SCREENED IN PORCH. THERE IS ALSO A WHEEL CHAIR RAMP IN THE FRONT. MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TO SEE THIS WONDERFUL HOME TODAY.

Key facts

• Mulberry trees
• Blueberry bush
• Back deck

Tags

• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• FENCED BACKYARD
• EDIBLE LANDSCAPE
• MULBERRY TREES
• BLUEBERRY BUSH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.3% in Warrington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#631 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $170k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.36%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1002 Mills Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$98	95

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,232
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $21,621
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32507

• Home prices YoY: -4.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,320

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $547	-5% $499	+0% $451	+5% $402	+10% $354
Rent	-10% $301	-5% $376	+0% $451	+5% $525	+10% $600
Rate	-1.0pp $536	-0.5pp $494	base $451	+0.5pp $406	+1.0pp $362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1401 Maritime Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,750	$1.13	14d	1	0.17mi
1405 Maritime Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	24d	1	0.17mi
1306 Leeway Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,750	$1.13	14d	1	0.19mi
1306 Leeway Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,800	$1.17	24d	1	0.19mi
1308 Leeway Dr Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1537	$1,950	$1.27	24d	1	0.19mi
103 NW Kalash Rd Pensacola, FL	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,400	$1.12	24d	1	0.47mi
300 Gibbs Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1377	$1,999	$1.45	24d	1	0.51mi
206 Berry Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,000	$1.34	24d	1	0.77mi
727 Bremen Ave Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,650	$1.09	22d	1	0.79mi
570 Quigley Rd Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,525	$1.28	24d	1	0.92mi
210 S 2nd St Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,900	$1.54	24d	1	0.98mi
7071 Lake Joanne Dr Unit 2A Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	24d	1	1.38mi
7071 Lake Joanne Dr Unit 2C Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	14d	1	1.38mi
542 S 72nd Ave Unit C Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	24d	1	1.42mi
5705 Admiral Doyle Rd Pensacola, FL	4.0	3.0	1988	$2,200	$1.11	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-04-20
   listed $170,000 Active
4. 2023-09-18
   historical
5. 2023-08-21
   price $180,000
6. 2023-07-28
   status Active
7. 2023-07-26
   historical Contingent
8. 2023-07-21
   status Active
9. 2023-07-21
   price $185,000
10. 2023-06-15
    historical Contingent
11. 2023-06-02
    status Active
12. 2023-05-23
    historical
13. 2023-04-05
    price $192,000
14. 2023-03-02
    listed $198,000 Active
15. 2020-06-02
    soldstatus $92,000
16. 2020-05-26
    soldstatus $92,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    VERY NICE 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH WITH A LARGE INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM. OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND KITCHEN COMBINATION. SPLIT BEDROOMS. MASTER BEDROOM HAS LARGE WALK IN CLOSET WITH BATHROOM THAT HAS A TUB AND SEPARATE SHOWER, ALSO DOUBLE SINKS! THERE IS AN OPEN DECK ON THE BACK WITH A WHEEL CHAIR RAMP THAT IS ONLY 3 YEARS OLD. FENCED BACK YARD WITH A 10X20 STORAGE SHED. FRONT HAS A SCREENED IN PORCH. THERE IS ALSO A WHEEL CHAIR RAMP IN THE FRONT. MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TO SEE THIS WONDERFUL HOME TODAY.

17. 2020-02-03
    listed $97,000 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    VERY NICE 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH WITH A LARGE INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM. OPEN FLOOR PLAN WITH LIVING ROOM, DINING ROOM AND KITCHEN COMBINATION. SPLIT BEDROOMS. MASTER BEDROOM HAS LARGE WALK IN CLOSET WITH BATHROOM THAT HAS A TUB AND SEPARATE SHOWER, ALSO DOUBLE SINKS! THERE IS AN OPEN DECK ON THE BACK WITH A WHEEL CHAIR RAMP THAT IS ONLY 3 YEARS OLD. FENCED BACK YARD WITH A 10X20 STORAGE SHED. FRONT HAS A SCREENED IN PORCH. THERE IS ALSO A WHEEL CHAIR RAMP IN THE FRONT. MAKE YOUR APPOINTMENT TO SEE THIS WONDERFUL HOME TODAY.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$444/yr (+$37/mo · 45.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,685
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,815
• − Management: −$1,815
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $2,771
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$665
• After-tax cash flow: $4,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warrington

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #631
• US rank: #12396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warrington, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,226
• Household income: $73,540
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1175.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.23%
• Current HPI: 548.03
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.22%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+75.3% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $170,000 PARMLS
• 2023-09-18 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2023-08-21 Price Changed $180,000 PARMLS
• 2023-07-28 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-07-26 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-07-21 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-07-21 Price Changed $185,000 PARMLS
• 2023-06-15 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2023-06-02 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2023-05-23 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2023-04-05 Price Changed $192,000 PARMLS
• 2023-03-02 Listed $198,000 PARMLS
• 2020-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $92,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-26 Sold (MLS) $92,000 PARMLS
• 2020-02-03 Listed $97,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+25.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $967 · +20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.