624 Fern St · Jacksonville, FL 32206

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,011 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 141 Days on market

Built 1938 5,227 sqft lot Est $111k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL INVESTMENT HOME. CLOSE TO TRANSPORTATION, SHOPPING AND MORE. A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH.

Key facts

• 2018 roof
• 0.12-acre lot
• Space for parking

Tags

• 2018 ROOF
• 0.12-ACRE LOT
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR ROUTES
• SPACE FOR PARKING
• SPACE FOR GARDENING
• DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Glass-enclosed porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Primary bathroom with tub and shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 194 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($39k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask is 20% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.21%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $111,210
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4562 Notter Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,052 (+4%)	4mo	$139,000	$132	79
334 Birch St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-0%)	4mo	$50,000	$50	69
429 W 46th St	0.54mi	2/1.0	1,020 (+1%)	2mo	$167,000	$164	68
28 W 35th St	0.45mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,034 (+2%)	4mo	$110,000	$106	65
625 W 46th St	0.53mi	2/1.0	1,031 (+2%)	5mo	$40,000	$39	64
705 Oak Arbor Cir	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,094 (+8%)	1mo	$160,000	$146	61
4808 Silver St	0.35mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+11%)	1mo	$135,000	$121	56
733 Escambia St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	975 (-4%)	0mo	$90,000	$92	54
569 W 49th St	0.56mi	2/1.0	924 (-9%)	2mo	$57,000	$62	54
557 Chestnut Dr	0.61mi	2/1.0	943 (-7%)	4mo	$125,000	$133	53
1004 W 26th St	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-7%)	2mo	$102,500	$110	44
1125 W 29th St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-14%)	4mo	$73,000	$84	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-12,572
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-8,501
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32206

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 194
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$113 /mo · $1,354/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,003

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
643 Linwood Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,325	$1.08	2d	1	0.11mi
666 Basswood St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,400	$1.40	23d	1	0.14mi
451 Long Branch Blvd Unit 451 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	23d	1	0.16mi
511 Ivy St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	23d	1	0.19mi
4721 E Castlewood Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,250	$1.24	23d	1	0.19mi
3914 Springfield Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	858	$1,050	$1.22	23d	1	0.22mi
3914 Springfield Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	858	$1,050	$1.22	4d	1	0.22mi
3927 Notter Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	738	$850	$1.15	21d	1	0.23mi
3927 Notter Ave Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	738	$850	$1.15	13d	1	0.23mi
326 Basswood St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1317	$1,550	$1.18	23d	1	0.28mi
4918 N Pearl St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$895	$1.05	23d	1	0.29mi
3732 Lehigh St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	14d	1	0.38mi
3730 Lehigh St Unit 3730 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	14d	1	0.38mi
154 W 28th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	818	$1,138	$1.39	17d	1	0.43mi
849 W 30th St Apt 3 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$965	$1.29	23d	1	0.43mi
22 W 38th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	23d	1	0.47mi
118 W 28th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,250	$0.94	23d	1	0.47mi
3728 Silver St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	916	$1,100	$1.20	23d	1	0.48mi
5514 Long St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	941	$1,250	$1.33	1d	1	0.48mi
528 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	944	$1,100	$1.17	23d	1	0.51mi
141 W 43rd St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1022	$1,231	$1.20	2d	1	0.53mi
5616 Calvin Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,195	$1.19	7d	1	0.54mi
562 W 49th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,195	$1.10	23d	1	0.57mi
539 W 23rd St #3 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	795	$775	$0.97	23d	1	0.58mi
347 W 23rd St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1176	$1,112	$0.95	7d	1	0.59mi
425 W 47th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1083	$1,193	$1.10	7d	1	0.62mi
18 W 43rd St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$795	$1.06	4d	1	0.62mi
5035 N Main St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	816	$1,181	$1.45	23d	69	0.64mi
204 W 23rd St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	960	$1,225	$1.28	1d	1	0.65mi
916 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,025	$1.26	17d	1	0.66mi
134 W 23rd St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,050	$1.37	23d	1	0.66mi
3902 Stuart St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1114	$1,050	$0.94	23d	1	0.67mi
664 Escambia St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,500	$1.11	17d	1	0.68mi
646 Escambia St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	21d	1	0.68mi
319 W 49th St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	977	$1,200	$1.23	23d	1	0.69mi
1031 W 26th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1261	$1,445	$1.15	23d	1	0.70mi
34 W 23rd St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	962	$1,400	$1.46	23d	1	0.70mi
522 W 21st St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1045	$1,350	$1.29	23d	1	0.70mi
851 Broxton St Unit 851 Jacksonville, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$875	$1.25	17d	1	0.76mi
3020 N Laura St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1162	$1,300	$1.12	23d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $120,000 Pending 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active Under Contract 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active Under Contract 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active Under Contract 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $120,000 Active Under Contract 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $120,000 Active Under Contract 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $120,000 Active Under Contract 132 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $120,000 Active Under Contract 131 DOM
9. 2026-05-21
   historical Active Under Contract
10. 2026-05-14
    status Active
11. 2026-05-14
    price $120,000
12. 2026-02-16
    status Active
13. 2026-02-12
    status Pending
14. 2026-02-12
    historical
15. 2026-02-03
    price $82,000
16. 2026-01-27
    price $83,000
17. 2026-01-14
    price $84,000
18. 2026-01-06
    price $85,000
19. 2025-12-09
    price $86,000
20. 2025-12-04
    price $87,500
21. 2025-11-18
    price $89,000
22. 2025-11-13
    price $90,000
23. 2025-11-04
    price $95,000
24. 2025-10-21
    listed $100,000 Active
25. 2025-08-26
    soldstatus $1,750,000
26. 2025-04-29
    soldstatus $432,040
27. 2016-12-01
    historical 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL INVESTMENT HOME. CLOSE TO TRANSPORTATION, SHOPPING AND MORE. A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH.

28. 2016-11-14
    status Active 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL INVESTMENT HOME. CLOSE TO TRANSPORTATION, SHOPPING AND MORE. A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH.

29. 2016-06-15
    status Pending 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL INVESTMENT HOME. CLOSE TO TRANSPORTATION, SHOPPING AND MORE. A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH.

30. 2016-04-25
    historical Active - Contingent 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL INVESTMENT HOME. CLOSE TO TRANSPORTATION, SHOPPING AND MORE. A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH.

31. 2015-07-17
    listed $10,000 Active 94-char remark

    Show marketing remark (94 chars)

    BEAUTIFUL INVESTMENT HOME. CLOSE TO TRANSPORTATION, SHOPPING AND MORE. A DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH.

32. 2013-06-14
    listed $14,000 119-char remark

    Show marketing remark (119 chars)

    MARVELOUS INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. CHECK OUT THIS 3/2. ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH. CLOSE TO TRANSPORTATION, SHOPPING AND MORE!

33. 2011-09-02
    historical
34. 2011-03-03
    listed $20,000
35. 1985-04-01
    soldstatus $30,000
36. 1980-05-13
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,354 · $113/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,354 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,354
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,140
• − Management: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$199
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$48
• After-tax cash flow: $1,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,105
• Household income: $39,242
• Rent vs Own: 53.7% rent · 46.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 22% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.55%
• Current HPI: 208.1852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.94%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+400.0% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Contingent — realMLS
• 2026-05-14 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $120,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-16 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-02-12 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-02-12 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $82,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $83,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $84,000 realMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $85,000 realMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $86,000 realMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $87,500 realMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $89,000 realMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $90,000 realMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $95,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $100,000 realMLS
• 2025-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $1,750,000 Public Records
• 2025-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $432,040 Public Records
• 2016-12-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2016-11-14 Relisted — realMLS
• 2016-06-15 Pending — realMLS
• 2016-04-25 Contingent — realMLS
• 2015-07-17 Listed $10,000 realMLS
• 2013-06-14 Listed $14,000 realMLS
• 2011-09-02 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2011-03-03 Listed $20,000 realMLS
• 1985-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1980-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,354 · +23.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.