416 N Hilton St · Baltimore, MD 21229

$45,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,578 sqft · Townhouse public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1920 1,980 sqft lot $29/sqft · 79% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity in this 4 bedroom 1 bath home! Covered front porch, hardwood floors, formal dining room, fenced in yard and more! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Versatile bonus room
• 1,980 sq ft lot

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• BRIGHT AND SPACIOUS FLOW
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• DESIGNATED LAUNDRY AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Owned as fee simple; Total below-grade area 705 (per assessor); Above-grade finished area 1,578 (per assessor)

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: Detached property; Located in city limits (Baltimore City)
• Construction: Brick construction; Foundation described as other; Year built recorded by assessor
• Exterior features: Detached structure; No tidal water on the lot; Above-grade and below-grade structures present

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Basement is unfinished; Property has at least two access/exit points

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $45k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 41.5% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 252 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.4% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,650 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 125.63%
• DSCR: 6.59
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $212,234
• List price: $45,000
• Delta: -78.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3716 Edmondson Ave	0.36mi	4/1.0	1,512 (-4%)	2mo	$130,000	$86	75
517 N Edgewood St	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,430 (-9%)	2mo	$90,000	$63	70
743 Linnard St	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,693 (+7%)	1mo	$199,000	$118	69
733 Lyndhurst St	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,550 (-2%)	2mo	$85,000	$55	64
509 Normandy Ave	0.45mi	4/2.5	1,458 (-8%)	1mo	$212,000	$145	59
120 Allendale St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+10%)	2mo	$225,000	$130	58
12 N Rosedale St	0.46mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,740 (+10%)	0mo	$160,000	$92	54
2822 Harlem Ave	0.55mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,483 (-6%)	1mo	$220,000	$148	50
2927 Ellicott Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	1,540 (-2%)	2mo	$230,000	$149	50
3707 Colborne Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-11%)	1mo	$220,000	$157	48
3118 Normount Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,725 (+9%)	1mo	$174,990	$101	41
2738 W Mosher St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,765 (+12%)	1mo	$37,000	$21	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.38% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.51×
• Total profit: $82,011
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.06×
• Total profit: $202,352
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21229

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,129 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,300/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $1,319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $460

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1408	$2,950	$2.10	4d	1	0.12mi
202 N Edgewood St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,250	$1.32	23d	1	0.20mi
3507 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1428	$2,300	$1.61	43d	1	0.20mi
3607 W Lexington St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,895	$1.80	4d	1	0.25mi
41 N Kossuth St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	23d	1	0.27mi
3619 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	3.5	1962	$2,800	$1.43	43d	1	0.28mi
623 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1250	$2,000	$1.60	23d	1	0.30mi
730 Linnard St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1360	$1,750	$1.29	23d	1	0.32mi
780 Linnard St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,590	$1.30	43d	1	0.36mi
787 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,575	$1.41	23d	1	0.38mi
715 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	5.0	3.0	1542	$2,550	$1.65	43d	1	0.40mi
3336 W Caton Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,625	$1.31	23d	1	0.40mi
798 N Grantley St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,295	$1.69	23d	1	0.40mi
3015 Rayner Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	43d	1	0.42mi
3712 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.43mi
2922 Edmondson Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,900	$1.17	43d	1	0.43mi
409 Normandy Ave Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	23d	1	0.44mi
3700 Woodridge Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1955	$1,950	$1.00	43d	1	0.50mi
4020 Gelston Dr Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,875	$1.48	43d	1	0.60mi
3238 Westmont Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1280	$1,600	$1.25	43d	1	0.64mi
2636 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1232	$1,900	$1.54	43d	1	0.69mi
2609 Lauretta Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1286	$1,675	$1.30	23d	1	0.72mi
117 Collins Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1617	$2,350	$1.45	43d	1	0.75mi
2744 W Mosher St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1412	$2,100	$1.49	23d	1	0.75mi
2806 Riggs Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1412	$1,900	$1.35	3d	1	0.77mi
212 S Loudon Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1310	$1,550	$1.18	43d	1	0.79mi
4018 Massachusetts Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,400	$1.33	23d	1	0.79mi
2728 Winchester St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,800	$1.43	3d	1	0.87mi
4113 Mountwood Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1520	$1,795	$1.18	43d	1	0.87mi
3130 Stafford St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	20d	1	0.88mi
3309 Brighton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1134	$1,700	$1.50	43d	1	0.89mi
1513 N Ellamont St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.0	1700	$1,700	$1.00	23d	1	0.89mi
1402 Poplar Grove St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.5	1540	$800	$0.52	43d	1	0.90mi
917 Kevin Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1151	$1,795	$1.56	2d	1	0.91mi
2537 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	23d	1	0.91mi
2516 Hollins St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.93mi
1530 N Rosedale St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,895	$1.15	14d	1	0.94mi
111 Upmanor Rd Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1224	$2,163	$1.77	43d	1	0.95mi
2800 Presstman St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,799	$1.23	23d	1	1.01mi
1633 N Hilton St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,600	$1.35	17d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $45,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $45,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $45,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-08
    listed $45,000 Active 1247-char remark
15. 2025-12-30
    historical $1,650
16. 2025-11-29
    listed $1,650
17. 2025-05-01
    historical
18. 2025-04-04
    price $179,000
19. 2025-03-10
    listed $199,000 Active
20. 2025-03-05
    historical
21. 2025-01-16
    historical $1,650
22. 2024-12-18
    listed $1,650
23. 2024-12-18
    historical $1,850
24. 2024-12-17
    listed $1,850
25. 2022-09-26
    soldstatus $57,500
26. 2014-12-12
    historical

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Great opportunity in this 4 bedroom 1 bath home! Covered front porch, hardwood floors, formal dining room, fenced in yard and more! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

27. 2014-12-12
    soldstatus $22,100 Sold

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Great opportunity in this 4 bedroom 1 bath home! Covered front porch, hardwood floors, formal dining room, fenced in yard and more! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

28. 2014-12-12
    soldstatus $22,100

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Great opportunity in this 4 bedroom 1 bath home! Covered front porch, hardwood floors, formal dining room, fenced in yard and more! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

29. 2014-11-17
    status Contract

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Great opportunity in this 4 bedroom 1 bath home! Covered front porch, hardwood floors, formal dining room, fenced in yard and more! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

30. 2014-11-16
    historical
31. 2014-10-27
    price $22,900

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Great opportunity in this 4 bedroom 1 bath home! Covered front porch, hardwood floors, formal dining room, fenced in yard and more! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

32. 2014-09-29
    listed $25,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Great opportunity in this 4 bedroom 1 bath home! Covered front porch, hardwood floors, formal dining room, fenced in yard and more! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

33. 2014-09-29
    listed $22,900

    Show marketing remark (171 chars)

    Great opportunity in this 4 bedroom 1 bath home! Covered front porch, hardwood floors, formal dining room, fenced in yard and more! This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,300 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,300 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,552
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$1,300
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,044
• − Management: −$2,044
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $16,110
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,866
• After-tax cash flow: $11,964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 46,679
• Household income: $60,047
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2776.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 73% White 15% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -259.07%
• Current HPI: 226.896
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+96.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-30 Rental Removed $1,650 BRIGHTMLS
• 2025-11-29 Listed for Rent $1,650 BRIGHTMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $179,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-10 Listed $199,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-05 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-01-16 Rental Removed $1,650 BRIGHTMLS
• 2024-12-18 Listed for Rent $1,650 BRIGHTMLS
• 2024-12-18 Rental Removed $1,850 RENTSPREE
• 2024-12-17 Listed for Rent $1,850 RENTSPREE
• 2022-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 2014-12-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 2014-12-12 Sold (MLS) $22,100 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-12-12 Sold (MLS) $22,100 MRIS
• 2014-11-17 Pending — MRIS
• 2014-11-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-10-27 Price Changed $22,900 MRIS
• 2014-09-29 Listed $25,000 MRIS
• 2014-09-29 Listed $22,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,300 · -28.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.