12803 Lake Vista Dr · Gibsonton, FL 33534

$319,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,844 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2002 4,973 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special with incredible upside! This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a rare opportunity to create your dream property or next profitable project, all set against a stunning lake view backdrop. With solid bones and a highly desirable location, this property is ready for a full transformation. The spacious layout provides endless potential for redesign and modernization, while large windows frame beautiful water views that can be maximized with the right vision. Whether you’re looking to renovate and resell, hold as a rental, or build equity through improvements, this property is a prime canvas. Home requires extensive rehabilitation and is priced accordingly. Sold as is, with the right to inspect. Cash buyers and experienced investors preferred. Don’t miss your chance to unlock the full potential of this lakeview gem!

Key facts

• Large windows
• Solid bones
• Lake view

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• SOLID BONES
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION
• LARGE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-187 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (10.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#479 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Corr Elementary School (math 38% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 611 students, 66% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 107 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,007 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.51%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-48,261
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $12,315
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33534

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,863 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$568 /mo · $6,816/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-187

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,100

Max offer price $286,007

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-6	-5% $-96	+0% $-187	+5% $-277	+10% $-367
Rent	-10% $-413	-5% $-300	+0% $-187	+5% $-74	+10% $39
Rate	-1.0pp $-26	-0.5pp $-106	base $-187	+0.5pp $-269	+1.0pp $-354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12734 Kings Lake Dr Gibsonton, FL	4.0	3.0	2408	$2,366	$0.98	1d	1	0.10mi
12627 Lake Vista Dr Gibsonton, FL	4.0	3.5	2592	$2,881	$1.11	7d	1	0.25mi
6725 Guilford Crest Dr Apollo Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	2646	$3,100	$1.17	7d	1	1.35mi
12716 Lemon Pepper Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2264	$2,800	$1.24	26d	1	1.47mi
12623 Lemon Pepper Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1939	$2,400	$1.24	19d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $319,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $319,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,100 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $374,100 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $374,100 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $374,100 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,100 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,100 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,100 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,100 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $374,100 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Investor special with incredible upside! This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a rare opportunity to create your dream property or next profitable project, all set against a stunning lake view backdrop. With solid bones and a highly desirable location, this property is ready for a full transformation. The spacious layout provides endless potential for redesign and modernization, while large windows frame beautiful water views that can be maximized with the right vision. Whether you’re looking to renovate and resell, hold as a rental, or build equity through improvements, this property is a prime canvas. Home requires extensive rehabilitation and is priced accordingly. Sold as is, with the right to inspect. Cash buyers and experienced investors preferred. Don’t miss your chance to unlock the full potential of this lakeview gem!

17. 2026-04-30
    price $384,000 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Investor special with incredible upside! This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a rare opportunity to create your dream property or next profitable project, all set against a stunning lake view backdrop. With solid bones and a highly desirable location, this property is ready for a full transformation. The spacious layout provides endless potential for redesign and modernization, while large windows frame beautiful water views that can be maximized with the right vision. Whether you’re looking to renovate and resell, hold as a rental, or build equity through improvements, this property is a prime canvas. Home requires extensive rehabilitation and is priced accordingly. Sold as is, with the right to inspect. Cash buyers and experienced investors preferred. Don’t miss your chance to unlock the full potential of this lakeview gem!

18. 2026-04-29
    price $284,000 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Investor special with incredible upside! This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a rare opportunity to create your dream property or next profitable project, all set against a stunning lake view backdrop. With solid bones and a highly desirable location, this property is ready for a full transformation. The spacious layout provides endless potential for redesign and modernization, while large windows frame beautiful water views that can be maximized with the right vision. Whether you’re looking to renovate and resell, hold as a rental, or build equity through improvements, this property is a prime canvas. Home requires extensive rehabilitation and is priced accordingly. Sold as is, with the right to inspect. Cash buyers and experienced investors preferred. Don’t miss your chance to unlock the full potential of this lakeview gem!

19. 2026-04-10
    price $391,500 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Investor special with incredible upside! This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a rare opportunity to create your dream property or next profitable project, all set against a stunning lake view backdrop. With solid bones and a highly desirable location, this property is ready for a full transformation. The spacious layout provides endless potential for redesign and modernization, while large windows frame beautiful water views that can be maximized with the right vision. Whether you’re looking to renovate and resell, hold as a rental, or build equity through improvements, this property is a prime canvas. Home requires extensive rehabilitation and is priced accordingly. Sold as is, with the right to inspect. Cash buyers and experienced investors preferred. Don’t miss your chance to unlock the full potential of this lakeview gem!

20. 2026-03-23
    listed $399,000 Active 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Investor special with incredible upside! This 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers a rare opportunity to create your dream property or next profitable project, all set against a stunning lake view backdrop. With solid bones and a highly desirable location, this property is ready for a full transformation. The spacious layout provides endless potential for redesign and modernization, while large windows frame beautiful water views that can be maximized with the right vision. Whether you’re looking to renovate and resell, hold as a rental, or build equity through improvements, this property is a prime canvas. Home requires extensive rehabilitation and is priced accordingly. Sold as is, with the right to inspect. Cash buyers and experienced investors preferred. Don’t miss your chance to unlock the full potential of this lakeview gem!

21. 2022-12-14
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,816 · $568/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,816 · $568/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$6,816
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,749
• − Management: −$2,749
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$7,598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,823
• After-tax cash flow: $-418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gibsonton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #479
• US rank: #8752

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gibsonton, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 17,740
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,740
• Household income: $80,484
• Rent vs Own: 33.7% rent · 66.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% White 36% Two or more races 23% Black 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Guatemala, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.07%
• Current HPI: 323.4367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.05%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $374,100 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $384,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $284,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $391,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $399,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-14 Rental Removed — STELLARMLS

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,816 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.