3230 Village Green Dr #1032 · Southgate, FL 34239

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,419 sqft · Condo public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1971 $550/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a classic Florida home that perfectly blends comfort, style, and functionality. With its solid construction and timeless character, the home blends classic design with the potential for modern updates, making it perfect for buyers looking to personalize their space. Spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and a functional layout create an inviting atmosphere ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas, making it all the more inviting. Village Green is a 55+ community that has a ton of amenities. Right on the other side of the neighborhood is even an executive golf course that can meet all your golfing needs.

Key facts

• Solid construction
• Classic design
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• SOLID CONSTRUCTION
• CLASSIC DESIGN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• EXECUTIVE GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($576/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#397 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 292 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $180k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.14%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-26,620
• Equity at exit: $26,839

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-21,326
• Equity at exit: $15,563

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34239

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$253 /mo · $3,030/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$550
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,306

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $150	-5% $99	+0% $48	+5% $-3	+10% $-54
Rent	-10% $-139	-5% $-45	+0% $48	+5% $141	+10% $235
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $94	base $48	+0.5pp $1	+1.0pp $-46

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $550 · $6,600/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $180,000 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $180,000 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-04-21
    price $189,000 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Welcome to a classic Florida home that perfectly blends comfort, style, and functionality. With its solid construction and timeless character, the home blends classic design with the potential for modern updates, making it perfect for buyers looking to personalize their space. Spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and a functional layout create an inviting atmosphere ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas, making it all the more inviting. Village Green is a 55+ community that has a ton of amenities. Right on the other side of the neighborhood is even an executive golf course that can meet all your golfing needs.

18. 2026-02-20
    listed $195,000 Active 725-char remark

    Show marketing remark (725 chars)

    Welcome to a classic Florida home that perfectly blends comfort, style, and functionality. With its solid construction and timeless character, the home blends classic design with the potential for modern updates, making it perfect for buyers looking to personalize their space. Spacious living areas, abundant natural light, and a functional layout create an inviting atmosphere ideal for both relaxing and entertaining. The open-concept layout creates a seamless flow between the kitchen, dining, and living areas, making it all the more inviting. Village Green is a 55+ community that has a ton of amenities. Right on the other side of the neighborhood is even an executive golf course that can meet all your golfing needs.

19. 2001-01-17
    soldstatus $97,500
20. 1997-11-17
    soldstatus $84,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,030 · $253/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,030 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$3,030
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,272
• − Management: −$2,272
• − HOA: −$6,600
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$1,996
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$479
• After-tax cash flow: $1,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Southgate

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #7021

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southgate, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 14,795
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,635
• Household income: $80,923
• Rent vs Own: 24.0% rent · 76.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 444.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -623.50%
• Current HPI: 377.4184
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+125.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $189,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-20 Listed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-01-17 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 1997-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,030 · +142.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.