408 Alexander Ave · Susanville, CA 96130

$140,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1946 Est $163k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment opportunity in town!

Key facts

• Built 1946
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (2.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (2.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.8% in Susanville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#421 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, health & safety A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Susanville Elementary (town): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #350 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 236 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6 units permitted in Lassen County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lassen County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $140k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,135 (2.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.18%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $163,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
449 Prospect Ave Ave	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,019 (-5%)	3mo	$65,000	$64	79
1500 Cornell St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,066 (-1%)	2mo	$140,000	$131	79
14 Upland St	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,146 (+7%)	5mo	$139,000	$121	73
428 Alexander Avenue Ave	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-13%)	8mo	$153,500	$164	65
85 Foss St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	987 (-8%)	7mo	$160,000	$162	61
220 Park Street St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-6%)	3mo	$179,000	$178	56
360 Adaline St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-6%)	2mo	$199,000	$197	50
155 N Sacramento St	0.68mi	3/1.0	974 (-9%)	4mo	$119,000	$122	50
1418 Fourth St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,149 (+7%)	4mo	$95,000	$83	49
330 Ash St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (-8%)	6mo	$40,000	$41	45
130 S S Spring St	0.58mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,218 (+13%)	3mo	$185,000	$152	43
227 Maple St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+12%)	2mo	$226,000	$188	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-7,805
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $12,221
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96130

• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $677/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,075

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $314	-5% $274	+0% $234	+5% $195	+10% $155
Rent	-10% $126	-5% $180	+0% $234	+5% $289	+10% $343
Rate	-1.0pp $305	-0.5pp $270	base $234	+0.5pp $198	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
413 Pardee Ave Susanville, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,400	$1.52	22d	1	0.02mi
200 Carroll St Unit 18 Susanville, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	22d	1	0.45mi
55 S Sacramento St Susanville, CA	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	22d	1	0.62mi
525 Hall St Susanville, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	22d	1	0.83mi
1070 Paiute Ln Susanville, CA	2.0	1.0	828	$1,062	$1.28	22d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $140,000 Active
18. 2025-02-19
    price $168,000
19. 2020-12-28
    soldstatus $62,000 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in town!

20. 2020-12-28
    soldstatus $62,000

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in town!

21. 2020-10-04
    listed $74,500 37-char remark

    Show marketing remark (37 chars)

    Great investment opportunity in town!

22. 2019-12-27
    soldstatus $46,225
23. 2019-12-20
    soldstatus $46,000
24. 2018-12-12
    listed $46,225
25. 1991-04-22
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $677 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,064 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$387/yr (+$32/mo · 57.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$677
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $532
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$128
• After-tax cash flow: $2,686/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Susanville Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638550
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $49,068
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7387
• State rank: #350 of 517 in CA

Livability — Susanville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #14210

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Susanville, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,892

Population outlook (Lassen County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,112 people
• By 2030: 26,732 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 25,536 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 23,262 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 18,620 · -31.3%
• By 2100: 14,679 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Black 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lassen

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.0) · D 21.8% · R 75.8% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -34.2pp · 2024: -54.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.0 2020: R+51.5 2016: R+51.3 2012: R+39.8 2008: R+34.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.12%
• Current HPI: 136.1585
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+211.1% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $140,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $168,000 LAORMLS
• 2020-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-28 Sold (MLS) $62,000 LAORMLS
• 2020-10-04 Listed $74,500 LAORMLS
• 2019-12-27 Sold (MLS) $46,225 LAORMLS
• 2019-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2018-12-12 Listed $46,225 LAORMLS
• 1991-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $677 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.