300 Georgia Dr · Davison, MI 48446

$139,999

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,067 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 1940 6,098 sqft lot $131/sqft · 21% below area Est $167k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Just a stones throw away from Potters Lake with Resident Lake Privileges! Adorable home with 4 bedrooms and 1 Full Bath! Attached 1 Car Garage. Updated Roof and Well! Come check out the opportunity this home holds! Lots to love in this affordable home! Land Contract terms available!

Key facts

• Updated well
• Updated roof
• 6,098 sq ft lot

Tags

• RESIDENT LAKE PRIVILEGES
• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED WELL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property type; Approximately 1,067 square feet of above-grade finished area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry; Located in the Potters Lake Park subdivision
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Lake privileges (Potters Lake); Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 109 x 74 x 120 x 20

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: Total of 7 rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans; No central cooling
• Interior features: Free-standing electric oven; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: No specific laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 1.9% in Davison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#45 in MI, #950 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, commute F.
• Lapeer Community Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #202 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 195 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 13 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $140k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $135,799 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.00%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $166,803
• List price: $139,999
• Delta: -4.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5883 Davison Rd	0.33mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (+1%)	22mo	$169,900	$157	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,830
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $25,389
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48446

• Active inventory: 195
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,681 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,505/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,267

Max offer price $139,999

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $366	+0% $327	+5% $287	+10% $247
Rent	-10% $194	-5% $260	+0% $327	+5% $393	+10% $460
Rate	-1.0pp $397	-0.5pp $362	base $327	+0.5pp $290	+1.0pp $254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,999 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   status $139,999 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $139,999 Pending 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,999 Active Under Contract 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,999 Active Under Contract 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,999 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $139,999 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active Under Contract 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active Under Contract 24 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active Under Contract 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-15
    historical Accepting Backup Offers 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Just a stones throw away from Potters Lake with Resident Lake Privileges! Adorable home with 4 bedrooms and 1 Full Bath! Attached 1 Car Garage. Updated Roof and Well! Come check out the opportunity this home holds! Lots to love in this affordable home! Land Contract terms available!

14. 2026-05-15
    historical Active Under Contract 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Just a stones throw away from Potters Lake with Resident Lake Privileges! Adorable home with 4 bedrooms and 1 Full Bath! Attached 1 Car Garage. Updated Roof and Well! Come check out the opportunity this home holds! Lots to love in this affordable home! Land Contract terms available!

15. 2026-05-08
    listed $139,999 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Just a stones throw away from Potters Lake with Resident Lake Privileges! Adorable home with 4 bedrooms and 1 Full Bath! Attached 1 Car Garage. Updated Roof and Well! Come check out the opportunity this home holds! Lots to love in this affordable home! Land Contract terms available!

16. 2026-05-08
    listed $139,999 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    Just a stones throw away from Potters Lake with Resident Lake Privileges! Adorable home with 4 bedrooms and 1 Full Bath! Attached 1 Car Garage. Updated Roof and Well! Come check out the opportunity this home holds! Lots to love in this affordable home! Land Contract terms available!

17. 2026-05-07
    historical
18. 2026-05-07
    historical
19. 2026-04-30
    listed $160,000 Active
20. 2026-04-30
    listed $160,000 Active
21. 2025-01-08
    soldstatus $84,000
22. 2022-11-04
    soldstatus $84,000 Sold
23. 2022-11-04
    soldstatus $84,000 Closed
24. 2022-10-25
    status Pending
25. 2022-10-25
    status Pending
26. 2022-10-01
    price $89,900
27. 2022-09-30
    price $89,900
28. 2022-09-30
    status Active
29. 2022-09-30
    status Active
30. 2022-09-25
    status Pending
31. 2022-09-25
    status Pending
32. 2022-09-15
    listed $99,900 Active
33. 2022-09-15
    listed $99,900 Active
34. 2022-09-13
    historical
35. 2022-09-13
    historical
36. 2022-08-31
    price $125,000
37. 2022-08-31
    price $125,000
38. 2022-08-26
    price $134,900
39. 2022-08-26
    price $134,900
40. 2022-08-19
    price $138,900
41. 2022-08-18
    price $138,900
42. 2022-07-31
    price $139,900
43. 2022-07-31
    price $139,900
44. 2022-07-22
    price $146,900
45. 2022-07-22
    price $146,900
46. 2022-06-22
    price $149,900
47. 2022-06-22
    price $149,900
48. 2022-06-17
    price $154,900
49. 2022-06-16
    price $154,900
50. 2022-06-01
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,505 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,505 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,505
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,614
• − Management: −$1,614
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $1,824
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$438
• After-tax cash flow: $3,483/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lapeer Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621180
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,749
• Composite: 34.79/100
• National rank: #5113
• State rank: #202 of 540 in MI

Livability — Davison

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #950

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lapeer County · 30,581 people
• City population: 33,757
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 30,581
• Household income: $66,062
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (Lapeer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,826 people
• By 2030: 89,535 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 86,695 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 80,566 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 65,783 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 46,584 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lapeer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 29.5% · R 69.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+38.3 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.58%
• Current HPI: 212.3665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+300.0% since first listed

49 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-06-12 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-15 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-08 Listed $139,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $139,999 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-30 Listed $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $160,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-04 Sold (MLS) $84,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-11-04 Sold (MLS) $84,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-10-25 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-10-25 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-10-01 Price Changed $89,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-09-30 Price Changed $89,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-09-30 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-09-30 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2022-09-25 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-09-25 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-09-15 Listed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-09-15 Listed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-09-13 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-09-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $125,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-31 Price Changed $125,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-08-26 Price Changed $134,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-26 Price Changed $134,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-08-19 Price Changed $138,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-08-18 Price Changed $138,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-07-31 Price Changed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-31 Price Changed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-07-22 Price Changed $146,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-22 Price Changed $146,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-06-22 Price Changed $149,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-22 Price Changed $149,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-06-17 Price Changed $154,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-16 Price Changed $154,900 REALCOMP
• 2022-06-01 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-01 Listed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2021-12-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2021-12-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-30 Price Changed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-30 Price Changed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2021-11-19 Listed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-11-19 Listed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-09-24 Sold (MLS) $31,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-08-05 Listed $35,000 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,505 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.