8401 Forest Rdg · San Antonio, TX 78239

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 969 sqft · Townhouse public records · 331 Days on market

Built 1985 4,356 sqft lot $124/sqft · 36% below area Est $189k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY NICE 2 BEDROOM, Excellent rental making 1300.00 monthly Divorce Sale, must sell. Property leased until Dec 2025, Please do not disturb tenants Investors welcomed

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $110 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 202 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 331 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 331 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.93%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,672
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -36.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8330 Forest Rdg #80	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+7%)	15mo	$150,000	$144	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-16,069
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-18,998
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78239

• Home prices YoY: -5.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 202
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,258 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$204 /mo · $2,449/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,118

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8406 Forest Ridge Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1121	$1,500	$1.34	44d	1	0.05mi
8416 Dixon Ridge Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,225	$1.11	3d	1	0.11mi
8439 Forest Ridge Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$1,095	$1.16	44d	1	0.16mi
8448 Dixon Ridge Dr San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	4d	1	0.20mi
531 Erna Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1002	$1,350	$1.35	11d	1	0.54mi
509 Meadow Frg Unit B Converse, TX	3.0	1.0	950	$925	$0.97	15d	1	0.89mi
509 Meadow Frg Unit A Converse, TX	3.0	1.5	950	$925	$0.97	15d	1	0.89mi
517 Oak Dr Converse, TX	3.0	1.5	894	$1,500	$1.68	24d	1	0.91mi
7115 Glen Ter Apt 3 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	625	$825	$1.32	12d	1	0.98mi
7115 Glen Ter Apt 3 San Antonio, TX	2.0	1.0	625	$825	$1.32	44d	1	0.98mi
7115 Glen Ter Unit 4 San Antonio, TX	1.0	1.0	576	$700	$1.22	4d	1	0.98mi
320 Station St Unit 101 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	877	$825	$0.94	13d	1	1.00mi
8355 Crestway Dr Unit 610 Converse, TX	1.0	1.0	556	$747	$1.34	3d	1	1.02mi
8355 Crestway Dr Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	865	$947	$1.09	3d	1	1.02mi
7467 Kitty Hawk Rd Converse, TX	1.0	1.0	735	$1,020	$1.39	44d	1	1.07mi
115 N Meadow St Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1048	$1,650	$1.57	44d	1	1.09mi
202 Ash Dr Unit 103 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$995	$1.11	24d	1	1.13mi
7347 Kitty Hawk Rd Converse, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	990	$1,323	$1.34	4d	1	1.15mi
7461 Kitty Hawk Rd Converse, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,342	$1.54	2d	27	1.16mi
810 Station St Apt 3 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$825	$0.76	4d	1	1.18mi
810 Station St Unit 1 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$899	$0.83	24d	1	1.18mi
7614 Glen Hurst San Antonio, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,400	$1.27	2d	1	1.19mi
301 Converse Center St Converse, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,184	$1.21	44d	1	1.19mi
812 Station St Converse, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	24d	1	1.19mi
7643 Glen Shire San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	868	$1,475	$1.70	24d	1	1.22mi
7128 Elm Cv San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	661	$1,097	$1.66	4d	1	1.23mi
7006 Glen Grv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,495	$1.44	44d	1	1.23mi
7037 Elm Cv San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	661	$1,203	$1.82	4d	1	1.24mi
7125 Elm Cv San Antonio, TX	2.0	2.0	664	$1,150	$1.73	11d	1	1.25mi
9205 Farm to Market Road 78 Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$1,051	$1.17	3d	1	1.27mi
9205 Farm to Market Road 78 Unit 610 Converse, TX	1.0	1.0	597	$941	$1.58	3d	1	1.27mi
7923 Langport San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1095	$1,800	$1.64	44d	1	1.31mi
7603 Glen Vis San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,200	$1.22	8d	1	1.32mi
9060 FM 78 Converse, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	769	$1,150	$1.50	2d	11	1.45mi
9180 Shadow Creek Ln Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	848	$1,169	$1.38	3d	1	1.46mi
7855 Kitty Hawk Rd Converse, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$1,425	$1.63	20d	17	1.46mi
7855 Kitty Hawk Rd Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	948	$1,177	$1.24	3d	1	1.47mi
7855 Kitty Hawk Rd Unit 610 Converse, TX	1.0	1.0	702	$1,067	$1.52	3d	1	1.47mi
7810 Walzem Rd San Antonio, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1052	$1,060	$1.01	2d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 331 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 330 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 329 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 328 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 326 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 322 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 321 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 320 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 317 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 316 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $120,000 Active 315 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Price Change 314 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Price Change 313 DOM
14. 2025-07-22
    listed $135,000 New 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    VERY NICE 2 BEDROOM, Excellent rental making 1300.00 monthly Divorce Sale, must sell. Property leased until Dec 2025, Please do not disturb tenants Investors welcomed

15. 2025-02-07
    historical $1,250
16. 2024-11-14
    price $1,250
17. 2024-10-26
    listed $1,300
18. 2023-07-01
    historical
19. 2020-10-01
    soldstatus
20. 2020-09-30
    soldstatus Sold 33-char remark

    Show marketing remark (33 chars)

    Property Sell AS IT ! No repair !

21. 2020-09-17
    status Pending 33-char remark

    Show marketing remark (33 chars)

    Property Sell AS IT ! No repair !

22. 2020-08-03
    listed $88,000 New 33-char remark

    Show marketing remark (33 chars)

    Property Sell AS IT ! No repair !

23. 2019-12-13
    historical
24. 2019-08-13
    listed $85,000 New
25. 2019-07-15
    historical
26. 2019-05-28
    price $90,000
27. 2019-04-18
    listed $95,000 New
28. 2012-01-25
    soldstatus
29. 2011-07-25
    soldstatus
30. 2011-07-13
    soldstatus
31. 2011-06-17
    historical
32. 2011-05-28
    listed $24,000
33. 2011-01-31
    soldstatus
34. 1986-05-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,090
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,449
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$586
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$141
• After-tax cash flow: $1,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,609
• Household income: $70,098
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 488.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% White 30% Two or more races 20% Black 16% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.13%
• Current HPI: 242.1272
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+462.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-22 Listed $135,000 LERA
• 2025-02-07 Rental Removed $1,250 SABOR
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $1,250 SABOR
• 2024-10-26 Listed for Rent $1,300 SABOR
• 2023-07-01 Rental Removed — SABOR
• 2020-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-09-30 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2020-09-17 Pending — LERA
• 2020-08-03 Listed $88,000 LERA
• 2019-12-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2019-08-13 Listed $85,000 LERA
• 2019-07-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2019-05-28 Price Changed $90,000 LERA
• 2019-04-18 Listed $95,000 LERA
• 2012-01-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-13 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2011-06-17 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2011-05-28 Listed $24,000 LERA
• 2011-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+15.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,449 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.