9 Duncan Rd · Saratoga Springs, NY 12831

$369,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 2001 1.85 ac lot $253/sqft · 10% below area Est $409k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Impeccable sprawling ranch situated on a scenic 1.85 acres close to every major activity. This young home features a new kitchen and baths. Custom cabinetry with tall upper cabinets, gorgeous quartz counters with stone back splash, upgraded appliances with stainless steel and custom hood over the range. Bathrooms are spacious and bright. All nicely sized rooms with the master bedroom private from the secondary bedrooms. Owners will LOVE the huge full basement, oversized garage which is perfect for a workshop or all the toys. The breezeway/porch has soaring wood planked tongue and groove ceiling and stamped concrete and is the perfect getaway to sit and relax and enjoy the peace and quiet this home offers. Excellent Condition

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Private wooded acres
• Composite deck

Tags

• PRIVATE WOODED ACRES
• UPDATED EAT IN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COMPOSITE DECK
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage; Room for six total vehicles; Driveway; Garage door opener; Heated garage
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Level and wooded lot
• Construction: Shingle siding and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Composite deck and additional deck; Porch; Split rail fencing in backyard; Paved driveway with lighting; Shed(s) and garage(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Additional bedrooms on first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Solar heating
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Full finished basement with interior entry and walk-out access; Wood stove in basement; Living room; Dining room; Mud room; Total of 7 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer; Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $369k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $311k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Schuylerville Central School District (rural): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #201 of 590 in NY (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Schuylerville Elementary School (math 60% / reading 66%, grade B, #669 of 2,108 statewide, top 32%, 597 students, 36% FRL); Schuylerville High School (math 92% / reading 70%, grade A, #495 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 482 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $270k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $271,698 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.81%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $409,178
• List price: $369,000
• Delta: -9.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 San Luis Rd	0.22mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,500 (+3%)	16mo	$315,000	$210	64
27 St Johns Dr	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,350 (-7%)	24mo	$335,000	$248	53
466 Colebrook Rd	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,658 (+14%)	20mo	$385,000	$232	43
7 N Gates Ave	0.66mi	3/3.0	1,536 (+6%)	15mo	$399,900	$260	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-80,668
• Equity at exit: $55,019

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-97,139
• Equity at exit: $31,904

Cash invested: $103,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12831

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax from tax record: −$385 /mo · $4,623/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,132

Max offer price $311,119

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,250
• Closing costs: $11,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4713 New York 50 Gansevoort, NY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,650	$1.74	14d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $369,000 Active 1614-char remark
2. 2020-10-28
   soldstatus $270,000
3. 2020-09-10
   soldstatus $270,000 Closed (Final Sale) 734-char remark

   Show marketing remark (734 chars)

   Impeccable sprawling ranch situated on a scenic 1.85 acres close to every major activity. This young home features a new kitchen and baths. Custom cabinetry with tall upper cabinets, gorgeous quartz counters with stone back splash, upgraded appliances with stainless steel and custom hood over the range. Bathrooms are spacious and bright. All nicely sized rooms with the master bedroom private from the secondary bedrooms. Owners will LOVE the huge full basement, oversized garage which is perfect for a workshop or all the toys. The breezeway/porch has soaring wood planked tongue and groove ceiling and stamped concrete and is the perfect getaway to sit and relax and enjoy the peace and quiet this home offers. Excellent Condition

4. 2020-07-06
   status Pend (Under Cntr) 734-char remark

   Show marketing remark (734 chars)

   Impeccable sprawling ranch situated on a scenic 1.85 acres close to every major activity. This young home features a new kitchen and baths. Custom cabinetry with tall upper cabinets, gorgeous quartz counters with stone back splash, upgraded appliances with stainless steel and custom hood over the range. Bathrooms are spacious and bright. All nicely sized rooms with the master bedroom private from the secondary bedrooms. Owners will LOVE the huge full basement, oversized garage which is perfect for a workshop or all the toys. The breezeway/porch has soaring wood planked tongue and groove ceiling and stamped concrete and is the perfect getaway to sit and relax and enjoy the peace and quiet this home offers. Excellent Condition

5. 2020-07-03
   listed $259,900 New 734-char remark

   Show marketing remark (734 chars)

   Impeccable sprawling ranch situated on a scenic 1.85 acres close to every major activity. This young home features a new kitchen and baths. Custom cabinetry with tall upper cabinets, gorgeous quartz counters with stone back splash, upgraded appliances with stainless steel and custom hood over the range. Bathrooms are spacious and bright. All nicely sized rooms with the master bedroom private from the secondary bedrooms. Owners will LOVE the huge full basement, oversized garage which is perfect for a workshop or all the toys. The breezeway/porch has soaring wood planked tongue and groove ceiling and stamped concrete and is the perfect getaway to sit and relax and enjoy the peace and quiet this home offers. Excellent Condition

6. 2001-03-01
   soldstatus $13,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,623 · $385/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,429 · $452/mo
• Expected delta: +$807/yr (+$67/mo · 17.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,670
• − Property taxes: −$4,623
• − Insurance: −$1,845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,608
• − Management: −$2,608
• − Depreciation: −$10,735
• Taxable loss: −$10,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,516
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Schuylerville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626160
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,011
• Composite: 53.71/100
• National rank: #1423
• State rank: #201 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 18,025
• Household income: $100,024
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 497.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.79%
• Current HPI: 351.6972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2738.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $369,000 Global MLS
• 2020-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-10 Sold (MLS) $270,000 Global MLS
• 2020-07-06 Pending — Global MLS
• 2020-07-03 Listed $259,900 Global MLS
• 2001-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,623 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.