1304 Blue Heron Dr · Denton, MD 21629

$220,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2004 1,100 sqft lot $141/sqft · at area comps Est $220k · at est. $104/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1304 Blue Heron Drive in Denton, Maryland — a move-in ready three-story townhome offering space, style, and comfort. This well-maintained home features LVP flooring throughout the main living area, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a layout designed for everyday living. The spacious bedrooms provide plenty of room to spread out, including a private third-floor primary suite complete with its own full bathroom, creating the perfect retreat at the end of the day. Whether you’re looking for low-maintenance living, your first home, or simply more space, this home offers a great combination of modern finishes and functionality in a convenient Denton location.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Modern finishes
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FULL BATHROOM
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• MODERN FINISHES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-10 ($-124/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (9.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#260 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, schools D-.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $165k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000 (9.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,000
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1304 Blue Heron Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,560 (0%)	0mo	$220,000	$141	100
1404 Blue Heron Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,693 (+8%)	1mo	$232,000	$137	83
1403 Blue Heron Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,680 (+8%)	4mo	$220,000	$131	82
1706 Blue Heron Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,560 (0%)	19mo	$230,000	$147	81
1412 Blue Heron Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,709 (+10%)	3mo	$240,000	$140	80
1306 Blue Heron Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,620 (+4%)	22mo	$247,000	$152	75
1202 Blue Heron Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,753 (+12%)	4mo	$230,000	$131	75
1302 Blue Heron Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,753 (+12%)	11mo	$222,500	$127	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.94×
• Total profit: $119,232
• Equity at exit: $198,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $351,783
• Equity at exit: $427,412

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21629

• Home prices YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,892/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$104
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-10

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,013

Max offer price $218,173

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1402 Blue Heron Dr Denton, MD	3.0	2.5	1752	$2,000	$1.14	44d	1	0.01mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $104 · $1,248/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Welcome to 1304 Blue Heron Drive in Denton, Maryland — a move-in ready three-story townhome offering space, style, and comfort. This well-maintained home features LVP flooring throughout the main living area, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a layout designed for everyday living. The spacious bedrooms provide plenty of room to spread out, including a private third-floor primary suite complete with its own full bathroom, creating the perfect retreat at the end of the day. Whether you’re looking for low-maintenance living, your first home, or simply more space, this home offers a great combination of modern finishes and functionality in a convenient Denton location.

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $220,000 Active 704-char remark

   Show marketing remark (704 chars)

   Welcome to 1304 Blue Heron Drive in Denton, Maryland — a move-in ready three-story townhome offering space, style, and comfort. This well-maintained home features LVP flooring throughout the main living area, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a layout designed for everyday living. The spacious bedrooms provide plenty of room to spread out, including a private third-floor primary suite complete with its own full bathroom, creating the perfect retreat at the end of the day. Whether you’re looking for low-maintenance living, your first home, or simply more space, this home offers a great combination of modern finishes and functionality in a convenient Denton location.

3. 2020-09-02
   soldstatus $164,987
4. 2020-08-28
   soldstatus $164,987 Closed 624-char remark

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   * * * A MUST SEE * * * Newly renovated in the desirable Mallard Landing community. This unit has been freshly painted and carpeted & is sure to appeal to your pickiest buyer. On the main level you will find a spacious family room with brand new stylish flooring. The kitchen was freshly remodeled kitchen new appliances flooring and granite counter tops. Middle Level has 2 good sized rooms with full bath & laundry area. The entire upper level is the owners suite with a super bathroom and great closets! Cheaper to buy then rent this unit plus a very desirable location with tons of community amenities.

5. 2020-07-08
   status Pending 624-char remark

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   * * * A MUST SEE * * * Newly renovated in the desirable Mallard Landing community. This unit has been freshly painted and carpeted & is sure to appeal to your pickiest buyer. On the main level you will find a spacious family room with brand new stylish flooring. The kitchen was freshly remodeled kitchen new appliances flooring and granite counter tops. Middle Level has 2 good sized rooms with full bath & laundry area. The entire upper level is the owners suite with a super bathroom and great closets! Cheaper to buy then rent this unit plus a very desirable location with tons of community amenities.

6. 2020-07-02
   historical 624-char remark

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   * * * A MUST SEE * * * Newly renovated in the desirable Mallard Landing community. This unit has been freshly painted and carpeted & is sure to appeal to your pickiest buyer. On the main level you will find a spacious family room with brand new stylish flooring. The kitchen was freshly remodeled kitchen new appliances flooring and granite counter tops. Middle Level has 2 good sized rooms with full bath & laundry area. The entire upper level is the owners suite with a super bathroom and great closets! Cheaper to buy then rent this unit plus a very desirable location with tons of community amenities.

7. 2020-07-02
   price $165,000 624-char remark

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   * * * A MUST SEE * * * Newly renovated in the desirable Mallard Landing community. This unit has been freshly painted and carpeted & is sure to appeal to your pickiest buyer. On the main level you will find a spacious family room with brand new stylish flooring. The kitchen was freshly remodeled kitchen new appliances flooring and granite counter tops. Middle Level has 2 good sized rooms with full bath & laundry area. The entire upper level is the owners suite with a super bathroom and great closets! Cheaper to buy then rent this unit plus a very desirable location with tons of community amenities.

8. 2020-07-02
   listed $165,000 624-char remark

   Show marketing remark (624 chars)

   * * * A MUST SEE * * * Newly renovated in the desirable Mallard Landing community. This unit has been freshly painted and carpeted & is sure to appeal to your pickiest buyer. On the main level you will find a spacious family room with brand new stylish flooring. The kitchen was freshly remodeled kitchen new appliances flooring and granite counter tops. Middle Level has 2 good sized rooms with full bath & laundry area. The entire upper level is the owners suite with a super bathroom and great closets! Cheaper to buy then rent this unit plus a very desirable location with tons of community amenities.

9. 2018-01-18
   soldstatus $74,000
10. 2015-07-15
    soldstatus $125,000
11. 2013-07-15
    historical Withdrawn
12. 2013-07-15
    historical
13. 2013-06-27
    listed Active
14. 2013-06-27
    listed $129,987
15. 2008-02-09
    historical
16. 2007-12-20
    listed
17. 2007-01-21
    historical
18. 2006-10-03
    listed
19. 2004-07-13
    historical
20. 2004-05-13
    soldstatus $138,656
21. 2004-05-12
    listed
22. 2004-04-30
    soldstatus $138,656
23. 2003-08-22
    listed $138,656
24. 2003-08-22
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,892 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,892 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,892
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,803
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$913
• After-tax cash flow: $789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400180
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $55,076
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8823
• State rank: #17 of 24 in MD

Livability — Denton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #13277

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, MD
• City population: 10,285
• Population (ZIP): 10,285

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,205 people
• By 2030: 30,204 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 27,866 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 25,342 · -18.8%
• By 2075: 20,554 · -34.1%
• By 2100: 17,415 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 29.9% · R 67.9% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.0pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+32.9 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+23.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.95%
• Current HPI: 356.683
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+58.7% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $164,987 Public Records
• 2020-08-28 Sold (MLS) $164,987 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-02 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-02 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-07-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-01-18 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 2015-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 2013-07-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-06-27 Listed — MRIS
• 2013-06-27 Listed $129,987 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-02-09 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-12-20 Listed — MRIS
• 2007-01-21 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-10-03 Listed — MRIS
• 2004-07-13 Delisted — MRIS
• 2004-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $138,656 Public Records
• 2004-05-12 Listed — MRIS
• 2004-04-30 Sold (MLS) $138,656 MRIS
• 2003-08-22 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-08-22 Listed $138,656 MRIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,892 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.