3435 Swindell Rd · Lakeland, FL 33810

$239,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,138 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1971 7,701 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this wonderful 4 Bedroom 2 Bath Home. FULLY REMODELED!!! New Floors, Granite Counters, New Light Fixtures, Fenced backyard and much much more. Whether your a small family or large this house will fit your needs. Don't miss out!!! It won't last long!!!

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Tile flooring
• Granite countertops

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• ISLAND WITH BAR SEATING
• JACK-AND-JILL BATHROOM
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Generator included; Homestead property
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Home faces south; Residential zoning (R-2)
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot approximately 70x110 (0.18 acres)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Wood fencing; In-county location; Paved lot; Unincorporated area; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Stone countertops; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Inside utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Socrum Elementary School (math 44% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 546 students, 65% FRL); Kathleen Middle School (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #486 of 571 statewide, top 86%, 821 students, 68% FRL); Kathleen Senior High School (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #501 of 667 statewide, top 75%, 2,051 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 64% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,223 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.03%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-60,510
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-81,722
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,276/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,058

Max offer price $179,562

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-201	-5% $-269	+0% $-336	+5% $-404	+10% $-472
Rent	-10% $-465	-5% $-401	+0% $-336	+5% $-272	+10% $-208
Rate	-1.0pp $-216	-0.5pp $-276	base $-336	+0.5pp $-398	+1.0pp $-461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3552 Doreen Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1105	$1,730	$1.57	25d	1	0.23mi
712 Bryon Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1026	$1,095	$1.07	21d	1	0.44mi
2559 Chestnut Woods Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$1,500	$1.50	16d	1	1.34mi
2463 Chestnut Woods Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	910	$1,500	$1.65	25d	1	1.44mi
2259 Chestnut Woods Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$1,400	$1.40	16d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $239,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $239,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,587
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,276
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,567
• − Management: −$1,567
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$8,359
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,006
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,032/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+626.4% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $239,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $269,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $29,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-18 Listed $279,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2021-11-08 Sold (MLS) $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-10-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-31 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-30 Listed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records
• 2021-06-30 Sold (MLS) $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-05-27 Listed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-27 Sold (MLS) $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-28 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-23 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-25 Listed $108,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-21 Sold (MLS) $34,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-07 Listed $32,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,276 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.