6828 W Pierce St #126 · Phoenix, AZ 85043

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 518 Days on market

Built 1971 Est $96k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home, sweet home! Presenting this charming 3-bed, 2-bath residence with carport spaces! Be surprised by the welcoming interior offering dual pane windows, ceiling fans, wood-look flooring, and a large living & dining room filled with lots of natural light. Functional appliances, granite counters, tile backsplash, plenty of cabinet space, a center island with a breakfast bar, and sliding glass doors to the side patio complete this delightful kitchen. In the primary bedroom, you'll discover plush carpet, a mirrored door closet, and a private ensuite with granite vanity. After a hard day's work, enjoy your glass of wine on the cozy side patio. What are you waiting for? Hurry, this beauty won't last long!

Key facts

• Full patio
• Eat at island
• Granite countertops

Tags

• UPDATED LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• EAT AT ISLAND
• FULL PATIO
• HEATED POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area reported by owner
• HOA & community: Land lease: $1,040 monthly; No association fees included; Community pool; Gated community; Heated community spa; Transportation services; Near bus stop; Community media room; Community laundry; Tennis courts; Playground; Fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered parking spaces; 3 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: East/West exposure; Gravel/stone front yard; Gravel/stone backyard; Synthetic grass in front; Private maintained road

Interior

• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Granite counters; No interior steps; 3/4 bath in master bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.9% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Tolleson Union High School District (4288) (suburban): math 14% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #188 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Sierra Linda High School (math 10% / reading 14%, grade F, #287 of 381 statewide, top 76%, 1,975 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 120 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 518 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (58%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 518 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 105.68%
• DSCR: 5.70
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $96,480
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
451 N 68th Ln #168	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	16mo	$70,000	$47	77
6810 W Mckinley St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$115,000	$86	77
6705 W Fillmore St W #305	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,450 (+1%)	14mo	$95,500	$66	74
401 N 68th Ave #247	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	15mo	$89,500	$60	74
6723 W Fillmore St #301	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	12mo	$70,000	$52	72
649 N 67th Dr #25	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$130,000	$97	72
500 N 67th Ave #129	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	17mo	$30,000	$23	69
6839 W Taylor St #209	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	13mo	$110,000	$82	68
605 N 68th Dr #131	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+14%)	19mo	$125,000	$76	59
6704 W Mckinley St #26	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (+14%)	15mo	$110,000	$67	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $64,602
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.63×
• Total profit: $134,866
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85043

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $1,233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7044 W Taylor St Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1588	$1,869	$1.18	10d	1	0.30mi
6628 W Monroe St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1656	$2,100	$1.27	1d	1	0.55mi
6901 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1043	$1,593	$1.53	1d	1	0.58mi
6901 W McDowell Rd Unit M 12-106 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1043	$2,045	$1.96	1d	1	0.60mi
7077 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$1,620	$2.07	1d	14	0.65mi
7205 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1291	$1,940	$1.50	1d	6	0.72mi
6515 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$1,738	$1.75	1d	7	0.72mi
6441 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	733	$1,231	$1.68	1d	18	0.77mi
1653 N 69th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0	1026	$1,949	$1.90	1d	1	0.81mi
6231 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	752	$1,681	$2.23	1d	49	0.96mi
1801 N 63rd Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1770	$1,845	$1.04	14d	1	1.03mi
7361 W Coronado Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,795	$1.20	10d	1	1.05mi
6161 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	952	$1,867	$1.96	23d	1	1.12mi
6161 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,955	$1.98	1d	38	1.12mi
7725 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,705	$2.21	1d	50	1.21mi
6343 W Cypress St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,780	$1.39	1d	1	1.26mi
5821 W McDowell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$2,324	$2.33	1d	11	1.40mi
1947 N 77th Gln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.5	1383	$2,100	$1.52	1d	1	1.45mi
7809 W Palm Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,450	$1.39	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-04
   days on market $50,000 Active 518 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $50,000 Active 517 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $50,000 Active 516 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $75,000 Active 515 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $75,000 Active 514 DOM
6. 2026-05-08
   price $75,000
7. 2026-02-12
   price $80,000
8. 2025-12-23
   price $90,000
9. 2025-08-12
   price $95,000
10. 2025-04-08
    price $100,000
11. 2025-03-23
    price $110,000
12. 2024-12-30
    listed $120,000 Active
13. 2024-09-24
    historical
14. 2024-07-12
    listed $120,000 Active
15. 2023-10-26
    soldstatus $118,190 Closed 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Home, sweet home! Presenting this charming 3-bed, 2-bath residence with carport spaces! Be surprised by the welcoming interior offering dual pane windows, ceiling fans, wood-look flooring, and a large living & dining room filled with lots of natural light. Functional appliances, granite counters, tile backsplash, plenty of cabinet space, a center island with a breakfast bar, and sliding glass doors to the side patio complete this delightful kitchen. In the primary bedroom, you'll discover plush carpet, a mirrored door closet, and a private ensuite with granite vanity. After a hard day's work, enjoy your glass of wine on the cozy side patio. What are you waiting for? Hurry, this beauty won't last long!

16. 2023-10-07
    status Pending 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Home, sweet home! Presenting this charming 3-bed, 2-bath residence with carport spaces! Be surprised by the welcoming interior offering dual pane windows, ceiling fans, wood-look flooring, and a large living & dining room filled with lots of natural light. Functional appliances, granite counters, tile backsplash, plenty of cabinet space, a center island with a breakfast bar, and sliding glass doors to the side patio complete this delightful kitchen. In the primary bedroom, you'll discover plush carpet, a mirrored door closet, and a private ensuite with granite vanity. After a hard day's work, enjoy your glass of wine on the cozy side patio. What are you waiting for? Hurry, this beauty won't last long!

17. 2023-09-01
    price $120,000 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Home, sweet home! Presenting this charming 3-bed, 2-bath residence with carport spaces! Be surprised by the welcoming interior offering dual pane windows, ceiling fans, wood-look flooring, and a large living & dining room filled with lots of natural light. Functional appliances, granite counters, tile backsplash, plenty of cabinet space, a center island with a breakfast bar, and sliding glass doors to the side patio complete this delightful kitchen. In the primary bedroom, you'll discover plush carpet, a mirrored door closet, and a private ensuite with granite vanity. After a hard day's work, enjoy your glass of wine on the cozy side patio. What are you waiting for? Hurry, this beauty won't last long!

18. 2023-07-15
    price $125,000 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Home, sweet home! Presenting this charming 3-bed, 2-bath residence with carport spaces! Be surprised by the welcoming interior offering dual pane windows, ceiling fans, wood-look flooring, and a large living & dining room filled with lots of natural light. Functional appliances, granite counters, tile backsplash, plenty of cabinet space, a center island with a breakfast bar, and sliding glass doors to the side patio complete this delightful kitchen. In the primary bedroom, you'll discover plush carpet, a mirrored door closet, and a private ensuite with granite vanity. After a hard day's work, enjoy your glass of wine on the cozy side patio. What are you waiting for? Hurry, this beauty won't last long!

19. 2023-06-26
    price $130,000 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Home, sweet home! Presenting this charming 3-bed, 2-bath residence with carport spaces! Be surprised by the welcoming interior offering dual pane windows, ceiling fans, wood-look flooring, and a large living & dining room filled with lots of natural light. Functional appliances, granite counters, tile backsplash, plenty of cabinet space, a center island with a breakfast bar, and sliding glass doors to the side patio complete this delightful kitchen. In the primary bedroom, you'll discover plush carpet, a mirrored door closet, and a private ensuite with granite vanity. After a hard day's work, enjoy your glass of wine on the cozy side patio. What are you waiting for? Hurry, this beauty won't last long!

20. 2023-06-04
    listed $135,000 Active 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Home, sweet home! Presenting this charming 3-bed, 2-bath residence with carport spaces! Be surprised by the welcoming interior offering dual pane windows, ceiling fans, wood-look flooring, and a large living & dining room filled with lots of natural light. Functional appliances, granite counters, tile backsplash, plenty of cabinet space, a center island with a breakfast bar, and sliding glass doors to the side patio complete this delightful kitchen. In the primary bedroom, you'll discover plush carpet, a mirrored door closet, and a private ensuite with granite vanity. After a hard day's work, enjoy your glass of wine on the cozy side patio. What are you waiting for? Hurry, this beauty won't last long!

21. 2021-11-27
    historical
22. 2021-11-26
    price $55,000
23. 2021-10-19
    listed $70,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $14,886
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,573
• After-tax cash flow: $11,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tolleson Union High School District (4288)
• NCES district ID: 0408520
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $51,925
• Composite: 16.41/100
• National rank: #9193
• State rank: #188 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 41,331
• Household income: $78,257
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1019.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 75% Two or more races 33% White 11% Black 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 72%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 57%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.22%
• Current HPI: 309.495
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+7.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $80,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $90,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $100,000 ARMLS
• 2025-03-23 Price Changed $110,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-30 Listed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2024-09-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-12 Listed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2023-10-26 Sold (MLS) $118,190 ARMLS
• 2023-10-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-09-01 Price Changed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2023-07-15 Price Changed $125,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-26 Price Changed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2023-06-04 Listed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2021-11-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-11-26 Price Changed $55,000 ARMLS
• 2021-10-19 Listed $70,000 ARMLS