527 Wisteria St · Oak Point, TX 75068

$559,730

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,894 sqft · Land · 83 Days on market

Built 2026 $193/sqft · 78% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.5/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Citron at 527 Wisteria Street in South Oak! Step inside to a welcoming foyer that leads past the study and a guest bedroom with a full bathroom before opening into the great room and casual dining room, both overlooked by the gourmet kitchen. A large covered back patio invites you to enjoy the outdoors. The secluded primary bedroom sits at the back of the home and features an attached bathroom with a dual sink vanity, a soaking tub, a separate shower, and a walk-in closet with direct access to the laundry room for added convenience. Upstairs, a spacious game room overlooks the great room and connects to two secondary bedrooms. Come home to a lakeside lifestyle at South Oak 50s. Enjoy community walking trails, catch-and-release fishing, and a clubhouse with a resort-style pool, aerobics and weight rooms, lounge areas, and a catering kitchen. Plus, a brand-new elementary school is being built less than two miles away, adding even more convenience for families. Additional Highlights Include: a covered back patio, pop-up ceiling in the primary bedroom, and a slide-in tub in the primary bathroom. Photos are for representative photos only. MLS# 21203265

Key facts

• Attached bathroom
• Soaking tub
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• ATTACHED BATHROOM
• DUAL SINK VANITY
• SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath land listed at $560k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $388k (30.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $339k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#887 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Elm ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #327 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 1306 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($526k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $338,986 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.11%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 13.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,507,556
• List price: $559,730
• Delta: -77.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-176,387
• Equity at exit: $83,458

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.85×
• Total profit: $-289,388
• Equity at exit: $48,395

Cash invested: $156,724 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75068

• Home prices YoY: -25.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 1306
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,390 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$700 /mo · $8,396/yr
• Insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$712
• Net cashflow: $-1,190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,896

Max offer price $387,509

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-803	-5% $-997	+0% $-1,190	+5% $-1,384	+10% $-1,577
Rent	-10% $-1,458	-5% $-1,324	+0% $-1,190	+5% $-1,056	+10% $-922
Rate	-1.0pp $-908	-0.5pp $-1,048	base $-1,190	+0.5pp $-1,335	+1.0pp $-1,483

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $139,932
• Closing costs: $16,792
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
329 Magnolia St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	2536	$4,300	$1.70	19d	1	0.25mi
329 Magnolia St Little Elm, TX	5.0	4.5	2536	$3,650	$1.44	0d	1	0.25mi
228 Glenwood Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2047	$2,650	$1.29	8d	1	0.36mi
3803 Fishermans Cv Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2953	$3,000	$1.02	25d	1	0.44mi
825 Carrie Ln Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	3560	$15,000	$4.21	22d	1	1.14mi
825 Carrie Ln Unit 1028451P Lakewood Village, TX	4.0	3.5	3552	$21,302	$6.00	22d	1	1.14mi
3432 Fashion St Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2075	$2,375	$1.14	44d	1	1.15mi
3413 Fashion St Little Elm, TX	4.0	2.0	2000	$2,239	$1.12	44d	1	1.20mi
2340 Willow Garden Dr Little Elm, TX	4.0	3.5	2630	$2,850	$1.08	19d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $559,730 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $559,730 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-04-18
   price $559,730 1180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

   Welcome to the Citron at 527 Wisteria Street in South Oak! Step inside to a welcoming foyer that leads past the study and a guest bedroom with a full bathroom before opening into the great room and casual dining room, both overlooked by the gourmet kitchen. A large covered back patio invites you to enjoy the outdoors. The secluded primary bedroom sits at the back of the home and features an attached bathroom with a dual sink vanity, a soaking tub, a separate shower, and a walk-in closet with direct access to the laundry room for added convenience. Upstairs, a spacious game room overlooks the great room and connects to two secondary bedrooms. Come home to a lakeside lifestyle at South Oak 50s. Enjoy community walking trails, catch-and-release fishing, and a clubhouse with a resort-style pool, aerobics and weight rooms, lounge areas, and a catering kitchen. Plus, a brand-new elementary school is being built less than two miles away, adding even more convenience for families. Additional Highlights Include: a covered back patio, pop-up ceiling in the primary bedroom, and a slide-in tub in the primary bathroom. Photos are for representative photos only. MLS# 21203265

4. 2026-03-10
   listed $559,410 Active 1180-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1180 chars)

   Welcome to the Citron at 527 Wisteria Street in South Oak! Step inside to a welcoming foyer that leads past the study and a guest bedroom with a full bathroom before opening into the great room and casual dining room, both overlooked by the gourmet kitchen. A large covered back patio invites you to enjoy the outdoors. The secluded primary bedroom sits at the back of the home and features an attached bathroom with a dual sink vanity, a soaking tub, a separate shower, and a walk-in closet with direct access to the laundry room for added convenience. Upstairs, a spacious game room overlooks the great room and connects to two secondary bedrooms. Come home to a lakeside lifestyle at South Oak 50s. Enjoy community walking trails, catch-and-release fishing, and a clubhouse with a resort-style pool, aerobics and weight rooms, lounge areas, and a catering kitchen. Plus, a brand-new elementary school is being built less than two miles away, adding even more convenience for families. Additional Highlights Include: a covered back patio, pop-up ceiling in the primary bedroom, and a slide-in tub in the primary bathroom. Photos are for representative photos only. MLS# 21203265

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,354
• − Property taxes: −$8,396
• − Insurance: −$2,799
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,254
• − Management: −$3,254
• − Depreciation: −$16,283
• Taxable loss: −$24,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,919
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Elm ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827720
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $76,400
• Composite: 36.17/100
• National rank: #4734
• State rank: #327 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Point

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #15941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 72,710
• Household income: $126,635
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 829.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.74)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 19% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.41%
• Current HPI: 249.755
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.50%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $559,730 Zillow
• 2026-03-10 Listed $559,410 Zillow