37248 Kinkaid Dr · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$114,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1970 5,722 sqft lot Est $123k · 6% under $18/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come live in one of the most affordable and cozy parks in Zephyrhills! This doublewide with an open floor plan makes for spacious living. There is a large master bedroom and an enclosed Florida Room in this comfortable home. Pretty landscaping and lota plus! $48,900.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Screened room
• Open layout

Tags

• PRIME ZEPHYRHILLS LOCATION
• OPEN LAYOUT
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• NEW ROOF
• SCREENED ROOM
• FRONT SITTING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.13 acres); Lot dimensions approximately 72 x 82; Zoning: RMH; MFR/building area listed in public records
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $220 / $18.33 monthly); Association fee required; Association: Rick Hillman; Community clubhouse; Community mailbox; Deed restrictions; Buyer approval required; Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Double wide; One story; Faces north; Completed condition
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Other roof type; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide mobile home
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Side porch; Screened porch; Storage; Vinyl fencing; Cleared lot; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room/dining room combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Outside laundry area; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $678 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Chester W. Taylor Jr. Elementary School (math 33% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,697 of 2,144 statewide, top 80%, 654 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 48% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $115k implies a 167% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.27%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37350 Tropical Dr	0.14mi	3/1.5	964 (+0%)	3mo	$54,000	$56	88
5015 Shirley Cir	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	976 (+2%)	3mo	$95,000	$97	74
37100 8th Ave	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	1mo	$138,000	$144	73
37229 Sandra Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	931 (-3%)	1mo	$106,900	$115	71
37024 8th Ave	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	2mo	$45,000	$47	71
5250 Betmar Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5	936 (-2%)	3mo	$143,000	$153	69
37135 Pauls Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	924 (-4%)	1mo	$244,000	$264	60
37240 Beverly Ave	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	898 (-6%)	2mo	$130,500	$145	57
36801 Judee Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	1mo	$159,900	$185	50
4639 Coral St	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$76,000	$72	48
36946 Grace Ave	0.59mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,063 (+11%)	0mo	$135,000	$127	47
37913 Sago Palm Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	1mo	$135,000	$128	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $19,402
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $52,626
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,739 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $334/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$18
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $678

Break-even live

Break-even rent $881

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	22d	1	0.51mi
37819 Alissa Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	18d	1	0.59mi
4639 Coral St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,250	$1.18	24d	1	0.61mi
4833 Royal Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$1,090	$1.62	24d	1	0.66mi
37925 Date Palm Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.5	720	$1,300	$1.81	24d	1	0.70mi
37902 7th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,775	$1.97	24d	1	0.73mi
5521 Barbara St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	24d	1	0.75mi
5237 1st St Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	964	$1,700	$1.76	24d	1	0.85mi
36801 Camelia Ct Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	864	$1,350	$1.56	24d	1	0.93mi
4940 4th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	24d	1	1.06mi
5022 5th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.5	974	$1,595	$1.64	24d	1	1.11mi
38236 Fir Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,350	$1.42	24d	1	1.12mi
37812 15th Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	24d	1	1.12mi
5441 6th St Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1014	$1,650	$1.63	24d	1	1.15mi
38031 Meyer Ave Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	24d	1	1.26mi
35940 Inspiration Dr Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,988	$1.92	2d	21	1.44mi
38702 South Ave Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,600	$2.00	24d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $18 · $216/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,900 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $114,900 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $114,900 Active
15. 2008-10-03
    soldstatus $43,000 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Come live in one of the most affordable and cozy parks in Zephyrhills! This doublewide with an open floor plan makes for spacious living. There is a large master bedroom and an enclosed Florida Room in this comfortable home. Pretty landscaping and lota plus! $48,900.

16. 2008-07-07
    listed $48,900 269-char remark

    Show marketing remark (269 chars)

    Come live in one of the most affordable and cozy parks in Zephyrhills! This doublewide with an open floor plan makes for spacious living. There is a large master bedroom and an enclosed Florida Room in this comfortable home. Pretty landscaping and lota plus! $48,900.

17. 1995-08-22
    soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$619/yr (+$52/mo · 185.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,868
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$334
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,669
• − Management: −$1,669
• − HOA: −$216
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $6,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,590
• After-tax cash flow: $6,540/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills West, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+317.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-03 Sold (MLS) $43,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-07 Listed $48,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.