8421 Lawler St · Houston, TX 77051

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 164 Days on market

Built 2009 5,000 sqft lot $157/sqft · at area comps Est $245k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a charming neighborhood, this property boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining. The open-concept living area features a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and easy access to nearby parks and schools. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home!

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Cozy fireplace
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• MODERN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COZY FIREPLACE
• EASY ACCESS TO PARKS
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($588/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,337/mo this rent would consume 75% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 1446% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask is 97900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,266
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -0.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8110 Parnell St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	12mo	$205,000	$136	69
8017 Comal St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-2%)	9mo	$170,000	$111	67
8324 Grandview St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-9%)	13mo	$244,900	$173	66
8436 Lawler St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-14%)	9mo	$177,900	$133	66
8230 Woodward St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,347 (-14%)	10mo	$155,000	$115	61
3928 Mckinley St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,478 (-5%)	13mo	$235,000	$159	61
8002 Colonial Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,447 (-7%)	9mo	$235,000	$162	60
4215 Sterling St	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,645 (+5%)	10mo	$228,000	$139	54
9007 Comal St	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,703 (+9%)	4mo	$289,000	$170	52
9009 Comal St	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,717 (+10%)	11mo	$299,900	$175	44
4403 Aledo St	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,751 (+12%)	8mo	$299,950	$171	39
8607 Edgar St	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,751 (+12%)	9mo	$289,950	$166	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $140,889
• Equity at exit: $220,715

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $421,876
• Equity at exit: $475,981

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77051

• Home prices YoY: 9.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,337 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$411 /mo · $4,927/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,275

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8328 Corinth St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,800	$1.87	20d	1	0.12mi
3620 Du Bois St Unit 1302349P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1797	$2,945	$1.64	2d	1	0.22mi
8010 Livingston St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	43d	1	0.36mi
4117 Shelby Cir Unit 1230900P Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1367	$5,355	$3.92	1d	1	0.41mi
3137 W Bellfort Ave Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,802	$1.55	43d	1	0.54mi
7806 Comal St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	43d	1	0.56mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	16d	1	0.68mi
2889 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,648	$1.65	2d	2	0.83mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	24d	1	0.86mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	14d	1	0.91mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	43d	1	0.95mi
2725 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	911	$975	$1.07	43d	1	0.98mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	12d	1	1.00mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	11d	1	1.00mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	12d	1	1.00mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	43d	1	1.02mi
4530 Mayflower St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,800	$1.38	43d	1	1.05mi
2910 Reed Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	967	$1,280	$1.32	1d	5	1.05mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	43d	1	1.08mi
3846 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1833	$2,300	$1.25	43d	1	1.08mi
3732 Seabrook St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1727	$2,350	$1.36	24d	1	1.08mi
3710 Rockingham St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1890	$1,700	$0.90	43d	1	1.09mi
8181 El Mundo St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1241	$2,041	$1.64	24d	18	1.09mi
8181 El Mundo St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1356	$2,262	$1.67	1d	47	1.09mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	24d	1	1.10mi
3655 Seabrook St Unit 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,000	$0.62	43d	1	1.12mi
7507 Springhill St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2000	$4,500	$2.25	43d	1	1.12mi
4835 Sunflower St Unit 1546466P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1883	$4,516	$2.40	14d	1	1.14mi
7321 Conley St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1869	$2,025	$1.08	20d	1	1.15mi
7321 Conley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,025	$1.35	20d	1	1.15mi
8383 El Mundo St Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,521	$1.38	2d	1	1.17mi
8383 El Mundo St Unit 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,529	$1.38	7d	1	1.17mi
8383 El Mundo St Unit 2174 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,553	$1.41	10d	1	1.17mi
8383 El Mundo St Unit 8440 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,558	$1.41	43d	1	1.17mi
3088 Holly Hall St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1600	$1,750	$1.09	14d	1	1.20mi
9610 Buffum St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1605	$1,799	$1.12	43d	1	1.20mi
2968 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	43d	1	1.20mi
2924 Holly Hall St Houston, TX	2.0	3.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	43d	1	1.24mi
9606 Ashville Dr Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1610	$1,570	$0.98	43d	1	1.25mi
2700 Holly Hall St Unit 2737 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1720	$1,724	$1.00	2d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-21
   price $245,000 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Nestled in a charming neighborhood, this property boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining. The open-concept living area features a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and easy access to nearby parks and schools. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home!

2. 2025-12-17
   price $250,000 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Nestled in a charming neighborhood, this property boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining. The open-concept living area features a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and easy access to nearby parks and schools. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home!

3. 2025-12-17
   listed $250 Active 370-char remark

   Show marketing remark (370 chars)

   Nestled in a charming neighborhood, this property boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a spacious backyard perfect for entertaining. The open-concept living area features a modern kitchen with stainless steel appliances. Enjoy the convenience of a two-car garage and easy access to nearby parks and schools. Don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home!

4. 2010-12-10
   soldstatus 196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (196 chars)

   UPGRADED PAINT! 9 FOOT CEILINGS IN MASTER AND FAMILY ROOM. CEILING FANS IN MASTER AND FAMILY ROOM. VINYL WOOD FLOORING, CERAMIC TILE, MASTER HAS A TUB WITH A SEPERATE SHOWER. THIS HOME HAS IT ALL!

5. 2010-10-29
   historical 196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (196 chars)

   UPGRADED PAINT! 9 FOOT CEILINGS IN MASTER AND FAMILY ROOM. CEILING FANS IN MASTER AND FAMILY ROOM. VINYL WOOD FLOORING, CERAMIC TILE, MASTER HAS A TUB WITH A SEPERATE SHOWER. THIS HOME HAS IT ALL!

6. 2009-12-01
   listed $120,000 196-char remark

   Show marketing remark (196 chars)

   UPGRADED PAINT! 9 FOOT CEILINGS IN MASTER AND FAMILY ROOM. CEILING FANS IN MASTER AND FAMILY ROOM. VINYL WOOD FLOORING, CERAMIC TILE, MASTER HAS A TUB WITH A SEPERATE SHOWER. THIS HOME HAS IT ALL!

7. 2007-03-13
   soldstatus
8. 1999-11-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,927 · $411/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,927 · $411/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$4,927
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,244
• − Management: −$2,244
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$826
• After-tax cash flow: $1,414/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 19,795
• Household income: $37,415
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1446.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.02%
• Current HPI: 180.4283
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+104.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $250 HARMLS
• 2010-12-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-10-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-12-01 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2007-03-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-11-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+22.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,927 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.