USS 3625 Lot 5 Portion Chilkat Lk · Covenant Life, AK 99827

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily · 319 Days on market

Built 2000 Poor condition 1.77 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOTIVATED SELLER — Alaskan Waterfront Retreat on Chilkat Lake (1.77 Acres) Discover your own Alaskan getaway with this 1.77-acre waterfront property on stunning Chilkat Lake, just outside Haines, Alaska. Bordered by the Haines State Forest and surrounded by breathtaking mountains, this off-grid property offers unmatched peace, privacy, and endless outdoor adventure. Property Overview True Alaskan Wilderness: Accessible only by jet boat or floatplane, this property is ideal for those seeking a private retreat or outdoor basecamp far from the crowds. Scenic & Usable Land: Features a mix of flat and gently sloped terrain perfect for exploring, relaxing, or planning future improvements. Two Rustic Cabins (Sold As-Is): Main Cabin (1977): ~896 sq ft interior, plus a 416 sq ft enclosed porch overlooking the lake and a 336 sq ft basement. Perched right at the water's edge for unbeatable views. With some cleanup and updates, it could become a one-of-a-kind lakeside retreat. Guest Cabin (2000): ~660 sq ft, built with cordwood and masonry for natural charm. Elevated location provides dramatic mountain vistas an inspiring fixer-upper with great potential. Endless Possibilities Whether you dream of a quiet nature escape, a recreational getaway, or an investment in Alaska's unmatched natural beauty, this property delivers. The as-is sale allows you to shape it to your own vision build, restore, or simply enjoy life off the grid.

Key facts

• Haines state forest
• Varied terrain
• Off-grid getaway

Tags

• WATERFRONT PROPERTY
• CHILKAT LAKE
• HAINES STATE FOREST
• OFF-GRID GETAWAY
• VARIED TERRAIN
• TWO RUSTIC CABINS

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#292 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Haines Borough School District (rural): math 40% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #5 of 53 in AK (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Haines Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Haines County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.45%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $27,086
• Equity at exit: $49,461

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $77,103
• Equity at exit: $76,225

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99827

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$138 /mo · $1,650/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $962

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 319 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 318 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 317 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 316 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 315 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 313 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 312 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 309 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 308 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 307 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 306 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 303 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 302 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 301 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 300 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 299 DOM
17. 2025-11-19
    price $110,000 1458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1458 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER — Alaskan Waterfront Retreat on Chilkat Lake (1.77 Acres) Discover your own Alaskan getaway with this 1.77-acre waterfront property on stunning Chilkat Lake, just outside Haines, Alaska. Bordered by the Haines State Forest and surrounded by breathtaking mountains, this off-grid property offers unmatched peace, privacy, and endless outdoor adventure. Property Overview True Alaskan Wilderness: Accessible only by jet boat or floatplane, this property is ideal for those seeking a private retreat or outdoor basecamp far from the crowds. Scenic & Usable Land: Features a mix of flat and gently sloped terrain perfect for exploring, relaxing, or planning future improvements. Two Rustic Cabins (Sold As-Is): Main Cabin (1977): ~896 sq ft interior, plus a 416 sq ft enclosed porch overlooking the lake and a 336 sq ft basement. Perched right at the water's edge for unbeatable views. With some cleanup and updates, it could become a one-of-a-kind lakeside retreat. Guest Cabin (2000): ~660 sq ft, built with cordwood and masonry for natural charm. Elevated location provides dramatic mountain vistas an inspiring fixer-upper with great potential. Endless Possibilities Whether you dream of a quiet nature escape, a recreational getaway, or an investment in Alaska's unmatched natural beauty, this property delivers. The as-is sale allows you to shape it to your own vision build, restore, or simply enjoy life off the grid.

18. 2025-07-25
    listed $120,000 Active 1458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1458 chars)

    MOTIVATED SELLER — Alaskan Waterfront Retreat on Chilkat Lake (1.77 Acres) Discover your own Alaskan getaway with this 1.77-acre waterfront property on stunning Chilkat Lake, just outside Haines, Alaska. Bordered by the Haines State Forest and surrounded by breathtaking mountains, this off-grid property offers unmatched peace, privacy, and endless outdoor adventure. Property Overview True Alaskan Wilderness: Accessible only by jet boat or floatplane, this property is ideal for those seeking a private retreat or outdoor basecamp far from the crowds. Scenic & Usable Land: Features a mix of flat and gently sloped terrain perfect for exploring, relaxing, or planning future improvements. Two Rustic Cabins (Sold As-Is): Main Cabin (1977): ~896 sq ft interior, plus a 416 sq ft enclosed porch overlooking the lake and a 336 sq ft basement. Perched right at the water's edge for unbeatable views. With some cleanup and updates, it could become a one-of-a-kind lakeside retreat. Guest Cabin (2000): ~660 sq ft, built with cordwood and masonry for natural charm. Elevated location provides dramatic mountain vistas an inspiring fixer-upper with great potential. Endless Possibilities Whether you dream of a quiet nature escape, a recreational getaway, or an investment in Alaska's unmatched natural beauty, this property delivers. The as-is sale allows you to shape it to your own vision build, restore, or simply enjoy life off the grid.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,650
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $906
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$217
• After-tax cash flow: $2,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovation and modernization to improve its condition and increase its value for resale and rental.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely worn and outdated
• Major bathroom fixtures — outdated and non-functional
• Major exterior siding — dilapidated and in need of replacement
• Major flooring — worn and outdated
• Major paint — peeling and outdated
• Major roof — visible damage and potential leaks
• Major windows — old and single-pane
• Major HVAC systems — outdated and inefficient
• Major landscaping — overgrown and lack of maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Both extensive renovation and modernization — modernizing the interior and exterior to attract buyers and renters
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improving the property's appearance to attract buyers and renters
• Both HVAC systems — upgrading the HVAC systems to improve comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · outdated and non-functional	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · dilapidated and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · peeling and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · visible damage and potential leaks	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · old and single-pane	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC systems · outdated and inefficient	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · overgrown and lack of maintenance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 9 items		$135,000–450,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both extensive renovation and modernization — modernizing the interior and exterior to attract buyers and renters ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — improving the property's appearance to attract buyers and renters ↑
• Both HVAC systems — upgrading the HVAC systems to improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Haines Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200270
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $53,101
• Composite: 47.02/100
• National rank: #5131
• State rank: #5 of 53 in AK

Livability — Covenant Life

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #26724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,166

Population outlook (Haines County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,529 people
• By 2030: 2,540 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 2,587 · +2.3%
• By 2050: 2,754 · +8.9%
• By 2075: 3,480 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 4,279 · +69.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Native American 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Haines

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $110,000 AKMLS
• 2025-07-25 Listed $120,000 AKMLS