16527 Ithaca Pheasant Dr · Patton Village, TX 77357

$226,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $192/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Timbers Edge Community Association; Annual association fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Living area approximately 1,720
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms/other rooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $226,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $333,002.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $227k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-643 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $227k).
• Recommended offer: $224k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 5.2% in Patton Village — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#977 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Timber Lakes El (math 23% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 860 students, 63% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 979 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($224k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $223,585 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.28%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,002
• List price: $226,990
• Delta: -29.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16507 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$271,990	$158	89
16514 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$270,990	$158	89
16502 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+2%)	1mo	$273,990	$156	84
16515 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,776 (+3%)	1mo	$272,990	$154	83
16210 Bergara Bend Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-4%)	1mo	$256,990	$155	82
16225 Bergara Bend Dr	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-4%)	1mo	$260,990	$158	82
16895 Buckwood Trl	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+4%)	0mo	$314,990	$176	77
15552 Mallow Ct	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,870 (+9%)	3mo	$289,900	$155	66
20938 Canary Wood Ln	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,740 (+1%)	1mo	$219,900	$126	65
21307 Pine Mill Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,591 (-8%)	2mo	$225,000	$141	62
16511 Ithaca Pheasant Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+14%)	1mo	$288,990	$147	61
21430 Sacred Grove St	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,956 (+14%)	1mo	$240,000	$123	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-101,156
• Equity at exit: $49,652

10-year hold

• IRR: -67.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-165,017
• Equity at exit: $28,792

Cash invested: $93,241 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 979
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,746
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$416 /mo · $4,995/yr
• Insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-643

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,156

Max offer price $239,962

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,251
• Closing costs: $9,990
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15019 Ashton Meadows Dr New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,790	$1.19	24d	1	0.61mi
14255 Timber Fields Way New Caney, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$2,095	$1.17	5d	57	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $226,990 Active 15 DOM

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $226,990 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,690 Active 13 DOM

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 633-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,690 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,690 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,690 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,690 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,690 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,690 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    remarks 594-char remark
12. 2026-06-04
    days on marketlisting id $235,690 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on marketlisting id $235,690 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,690 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,690 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,690 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $235,690 Active 525-char remark
18. 2026-05-12
    listed $235,690 Active 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner's suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,106
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,653
• − Property taxes: −$4,995
• − Insurance: −$1,665
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,248
• − Management: −$2,248
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$9,687
• Taxable loss: −$13,696
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,287
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It has a good potential for value increase with minor updates to the interior and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Installing new flooring in the bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Installing new flooring in the bathrooms — New flooring can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve the home's curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Patton Village

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #977
• US rank: #17313

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 487.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $226,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $226,990 HARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $225,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-03 Listed $235,690 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $235,690 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $235,690 Zillow