722 Mill Spring Ct · Rosenberg, TX 77469

$315,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,053 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 2015 $153/sqft · 8% below area Est $331k · at est. $69/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A spacious one story brick home. Open and spacious. Split bedrooms. Granite kitchen countertop. Tile in living areas. carpet in 4 bdrm. 2''blinds. Lead glass front door. Garage door opener. Gas range. large back yard.

Key facts

• Tile in living areas
• Large back yard
• Gas range

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOP
• TILE IN LIVING AREAS
• LEAD GLASS FRONT DOOR
• GAS RANGE
• LARGE BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $315k).
• Recommended offer: $287k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1332 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $286,650 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.02%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,551
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -4.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9202 Sorrell Hollow Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,216 (+8%)	8mo	$330,000	$149	66
9210 Hemlock Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,140 (+4%)	2mo	$369,999	$173	64
107 Angel Hollow Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,050 (-0%)	3mo	$345,000	$168	61
831 Shenandoah Falls Ln	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,113 (+3%)	3mo	$320,000	$151	59
1203 Fill House Ct	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,840 (-10%)	4mo	$364,000	$198	59
523 Bonbrook Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,131 (+4%)	8mo	$329,990	$155	56
8710 Snyder Farm Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,131 (+4%)	6mo	$349,000	$164	55
8707 Rocky Knoll Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,280 (+11%)	2mo	$335,000	$147	48
8715 Gladiolus Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	2,210 (+8%)	6mo	$369,900	$167	47
410 N Iris Rose Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (-12%)	3mo	$325,000	$180	46
9207 Gilbert Hollow Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (-11%)	2mo	$330,000	$181	46
9007 Hemlock Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (-10%)	6mo	$315,000	$171	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-51,075
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-68,897
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1332
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,313 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$616 /mo · $7,398/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$696
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,125

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
615 Arbor Green Ln Rosenberg, TX	4.0	3.0	2564	$3,800	$1.48	44d	1	0.45mi
2302 Grande Laurel Ct Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2832	$2,975	$1.05	19d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $315,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-03-10
    listed $315,000 Active 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    A spacious one story brick home. Open and spacious. Split bedrooms. Granite kitchen countertop. Tile in living areas. carpet in 4 bdrm. 2''blinds. Lead glass front door. Garage door opener. Gas range. large back yard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,398 · $616/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,398 · $616/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$7,398
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,180
• − Management: −$3,180
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$3,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$772
• After-tax cash flow: $2,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $315,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+48.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,398 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.