3517 Wagon Train Rd · Middle River, MD 21220

$49,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 1982 Excellent condition $59/sqft · 18% above area Est $42k · 18% over ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nicely Renovated 2 Bedroom, 2 Full Bath Singlewide in Sought After Williams Estates! Updates Include Beautiful New Kitchen with White Shaker Cabinets, Quartz Countertops, New Stainless Steel Appliances and an Island. Inside Features a Large Living Room and 2 Nice Sized Bedrooms, Each with an Updated Private Bathroom, New Six Panel Doors, Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring and New Paint Throughout. Outside this home sits on a Big Corner Lot with New Windows, a Custom Front Sundeck and a Secure Storage Shed. Community Perks Include 2 Tot Lots, Walking Trails, Dog Park, Fitness Center and a Clubhouse. Close to Schools, Shopping, Restaurants and Commuter Rail Station. Don't Delay, this one won't Last!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New kitchen
• Large living room

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• UPDATED PRIVATE BATHROOM
• NEW SIX PANEL DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed with breed and size/weight restrictions; Located in Williams Estates (use GPS for directions); Outside city limits
• HOA & community: Land lease: $1,133 monthly; 100 years remaining

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking (2 spaces); Total of 2 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric-powered systems
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single wide (14' x 60'); Skyline make; Metal roof; Above grade structure; Estimated year of major remodel 2026; Land lease ownership (land lease monthly)
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Replacement double-pane vinyl-clad windows; No basement reported
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Patio(s); Secure storage; Sidewalks; Corner lot; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Electric oven/range; Dishwasher; Built-in microwave; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Stall shower and tub/shower combination; Traditional floor plan; Eat-in kitchen with island; Master bath; Recessed lighting; Upgraded countertops; Six-panel interior doors

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.8% vs local median 4.1% in Middle River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#76 in MD, #2,777 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Chase Elementary (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #477 of 860 statewide, top 59%, 358 students, 60% FRL); Middle River Middle (math 5% / reading 32%, grade F, #159 of 225 statewide, top 73%, 978 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 39% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 251 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.8% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.36%
• DSCR: 6.00
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $42,363
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: 17.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.07×
• Total profit: $70,795
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.84×
• Total profit: $151,496
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21220

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 251
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,092 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $1,308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3736 White Pine Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	741	$1,310	$1.77	2d	21	0.91mi
11550 Crossroads Cir Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,849	$3.19	2d	15	1.04mi
37 Alberge Ln Middle River, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$1,215	$1.31	2d	8	1.16mi
6221 Greenleigh Ave Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$2,957	$2.79	2d	16	1.28mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $49,900 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    listed $52,900 Active 699-char remark
15. 2024-05-10
    status Pending
16. 2024-05-10
    historical
17. 2024-03-14
    price $65,000
18. 2023-12-03
    listed $75,000 Active
19. 2023-12-03
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,110
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,009
• − Management: −$2,009
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $15,848
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,803
• After-tax cash flow: $11,895/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This singlewide home is in excellent condition with recent renovations, including a new kitchen, bathrooms, and flooring. It is move-in ready and has a big corner lot with a custom front sun deck and a secure storage shed.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting to potential buyers.
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and make the home look more inviting to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Middle River

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #2777

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middle River, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 42,824
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 42,824
• Household income: $81,817
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1921.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 27% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Ukrainian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.31%
• Current HPI: 254.5597
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

-33.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $52,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-03-14 Price Changed $65,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-03 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-03 Coming Soon — BRIGHT MLS