5161 Collins Ave #310 · Miami Beach, FL 33140

$499,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 930 sqft · Condo public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1966 $887/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Exceptional investment opportunity on prestigious Millionaire’s Row in Miami Beach. This spacious 1-bedroom, 1.5-bath residence offers flexible rental options, allowing short-term rentals up to 12 times per year. Enjoy resort-style living with a heated oceanfront pool, hot tub, fitness center, tiki bar, convenience store, hair salon, and direct beach access with chairs and umbrellas. Whether you're seeking a vacation retreat, primary residence, or income-producing asset, this property delivers the perfect blend of lifestyle, flexibility, and investment potential. SPECIAL assesment $948 until 01/2027.

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Hot tub
• Tiki bar

Tags

• HEATED OCEANFRONT POOL
• HOT TUB
• FITNESS CENTER
• TIKI BAR
• DIRECT BEACH ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets are allowed
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association fee covers amenities, cable TV, HVAC, hot water, parking, and pool(s); Association amenities include marina, business center, cabana, fitness center, laundry, pool, tennis courts, trash service, and elevators

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered garage space
• Security: Secured elevator; Intercom; Secured lobby; Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Has cooling (central air)
• Home design: Condominium in a 17-story building; Entry on level 3; Property is attached
• Construction: Block construction
• Exterior features: Tennis court(s); Waterfront: Bay front with ocean access and ocean front

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Icemaker; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast area; Elevator access; Living/dining room layout; Main level primary; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $499k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-639 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $386k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $466k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $386k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 1.5% in Miami Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in FL, #1,672 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 670 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,663/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($107k/yr) (locally 870% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $342k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $386,086 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.92%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.96% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-29,174
• Equity at exit: $169,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $27,468
• Equity at exit: $224,469

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33140

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 670
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,663 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax from tax record: −$545 /mo · $6,537/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$887
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$979
• Net cashflow: $-639

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,472

Max offer price $386,086

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-357	-5% $-498	+0% $-639	+5% $-780	+10% $-922
Rent	-10% $-1,008	-5% $-823	+0% $-639	+5% $-455	+10% $-271
Rate	-1.0pp $-388	-0.5pp $-512	base $-639	+0.5pp $-768	+1.0pp $-900

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $887 · $10,644/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 607-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $499,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,537 · $545/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,537 · $545/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 81% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$6,537
• − Insurance: −$3,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,476
• − Management: −$4,476
• − HOA: −$10,644
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$15,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,825
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,845/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Miami Beach

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #1672

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment B Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Miami Beach, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 90,533
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,342
• Household income: $107,063
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 870.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 23% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 19% Salvadoran 6%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 44% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.96%
• Current HPI: 302.8514
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+326.5% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $499,000 MARMLS
• 2023-12-31 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2023-07-30 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2023-03-15 Price Changed $605,000 MARMLS
• 2023-03-09 Price Changed $586,000 MARMLS
• 2023-03-03 Price Changed $585,000 MARMLS
• 2023-03-01 Price Changed $587,000 MARMLS
• 2023-02-23 Price Changed $589,000 MARMLS
• 2023-02-16 Price Changed $590,000 MARMLS
• 2023-02-12 Price Changed $614,000 MARMLS
• 2023-02-10 Listed $615,000 MARMLS
• 2022-08-01 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2022-08-01 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2022-04-04 Price Changed $575,000 MARMLS
• 2022-02-24 Price Changed $495,000 MARMLS
• 2022-01-10 Listed $440,000 MARMLS
• 2021-12-28 Sold (Public Records) $342,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-15 Sold (MLS) $342,000 MARMLS
• 2021-11-01 Pending — MARMLS
• 2021-10-17 Listed $360,000 MARMLS
• 2021-03-08 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2020-09-09 Listed $330,000 MARMLS
• 2020-06-13 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2020-01-13 Listed $368,000 MARMLS
• 2013-12-05 Sold (MLS) $320,000 MARMLS
• 2013-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-10 Pending — MARMLS
• 2013-07-30 Listed $339,900 MARMLS
• 2001-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 1998-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,537 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.