24742 Zinnia Blossom Dr · Montgomery, TX 77316

$352,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,075 sqft · Land · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 9,297 sqft lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

With over 3,000 square feet, the Sinclair boasts abundant space for private living and entertaining. This plan welcomes you with a charming columned front porch, leading you into a welcoming foyer. Directly off the foyer, a secluded study boasts a walk-in closet. Beyond the foyer, you'll love an open-concept living area that features an inviting kitchen—boasting a center island and corner pantry—an elegant dining area and a spacious great room. Anchoring the home, a convenient downstairs primary suite features its own attached bath and an expansive walk-in closet. Additional main-floor highlights include a valet entry off the 2-bay garage and a patio off the dining area. On the

Key facts

• Secluded study
• Corner pantry
• Columned front porch

Tags

• COLUMNED FRONT PORCH
• SECLUDED STUDY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• CENTER ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• ELEGANT DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association managed by Inframark; Annual association fee of $550; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Microwave; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Additional bedrooms on second floor (3); Office on first floor; Total rooms: 6; Game room on second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bathroom; Pantry; Quartz counters; Tub/shower combination; Ceiling fans; Loft; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $352,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $422,211.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $353k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (31.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (31.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.3% vs local median 2.0% in Montgomery — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lone Star El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 23% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2304 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,940 (31.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.76%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $422,211
• List price: $352,900
• Delta: -16.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-142,031
• Equity at exit: $62,953

10-year hold

• IRR: -79.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.98×
• Total profit: $-234,310
• Equity at exit: $36,505

Cash invested: $118,219 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2304
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,214
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$528 /mo · $6,333/yr
• Insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $-1,060

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,752

Max offer price $268,772

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-769	-5% $-914	+0% $-1,060	+5% $-1,206	+10% $-1,352
Rent	-10% $-1,251	-5% $-1,156	+0% $-1,060	+5% $-965	+10% $-870
Rate	-1.0pp $-848	-0.5pp $-953	base $-1,060	+0.5pp $-1,170	+1.0pp $-1,281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,553
• Closing costs: $12,666
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $352,900 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $352,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $352,900 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $352,900 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $352,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $352,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $352,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $352,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $352,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $352,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $352,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $352,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $352,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $352,900 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $352,900 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $352,900 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $352,900 Active 835-char remark
18. 2026-04-29
    listed $352,900 Active 793-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,913
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,650
• − Property taxes: −$6,333
• − Insurance: −$2,111
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$12,282
• Taxable loss: −$20,642
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,954
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $352,900 HARMLS