19314 Tinway Ct · Houston, TX 77073

$155,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2016 Est $247k · 37% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2062 square foot single family home has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. This home is located at 19314 Tinway Ct, Houston, TX 77073.

Key facts

• Built 2016

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Spring ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #730 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 159 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.36%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,440
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19229 Gunther Springs Ct	0.07mi	3/2.5	2,062 (0%)	3mo	$219,999	$107	94
930 Belshear Ct	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,980 (-4%)	2mo	$229,999	$116	84
802 Remington Walk Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5	2,052 (-0%)	4mo	$239,900	$117	81
802 NW Bandon Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,915 (-7%)	2mo	$229,900	$120	73
1619 Evermore Manor Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,867 (-10%)	1mo	$239,000	$128	66
19835 Bettencourt Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,231 (+8%)	1mo	$254,600	$114	65
1431 Joy Oaks Ln	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,838 (-11%)	0mo	$240,000	$131	65
1407 Rising Springs Ln	0.19mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,798 (-13%)	1mo	$199,990	$111	64
19514 Fletcher Way Dr	0.39mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,200 (+7%)	3mo	$240,000	$109	63
611 Remwick Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5	1,832 (-11%)	1mo	$249,900	$136	61
19410 Green Chase Ln	0.30mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,772 (-14%)	1mo	$222,899	$126	57
943 Steel Blue Dr	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,282 (+11%)	3mo	$279,900	$123	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.68% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-8,046
• Equity at exit: $39,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-959
• Equity at exit: $43,908

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77073

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$540 /mo · $6,486/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,795

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1418 Spencer Glen Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,900	$1.23	16d	1	0.25mi
19959 Oland Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2005	$1,800	$0.90	24d	1	0.43mi
1514 Glasholm Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	21d	1	0.51mi
920 Century Plaza Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1298	$1,199	$0.92	1d	1	0.83mi
815 Richcrest Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1766	$1,921	$1.09	24d	1	1.30mi
18011 Kinsale Valley Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$1,750	$0.96	7d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $155,000 Active
2. 2026-02-23
   historical
3. 2026-02-09
   price $155,000
4. 2026-01-09
   price $164,000
5. 2025-12-01
   listed $174,000 Active
6. 2025-09-05
   status Pending
7. 2025-09-02
   historical
8. 2025-08-25
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,486 · $540/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,486 · $540/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$6,486
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$1,270
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$305
• After-tax cash flow: $1,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841220
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,584
• Composite: 20.12/100
• National rank: #8643
• State rank: #730 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,084
• Household income: $78,592
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 27% Two or more races 24% White 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Current HPI: 215.8688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $155,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $164,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $174,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $175,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+43.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,486 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.