14317 Murray Rd · Houston, TX 77044

$98,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 644 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1980 10,001 sqft lot $153/sqft · 17% above area Est $148k · 34% under ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

House that needs work, can be for handyman that can fix to bring it back to life. No HOA, with low taxes

Key facts

• Low taxes
• No hoa
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• NO HOA
• LOW TAXES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms on the first floor); Built in 1980
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Block and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $597 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sheldon Lake El (math 30% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 665 students, 86% FRL); Michael R Null Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,164 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 72% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $681 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-1.6% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,022 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.85%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $148,271
• List price: $98,500
• Delta: -32.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $24,590
• Equity at exit: $21,036

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $62,330
• Equity at exit: $19,831

Cash invested: $27,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$517
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$123 /mo · $1,478/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $946

Max offer price $98,500

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $665	-5% $631	+0% $597	+5% $563	+10% $529
Rent	-10% $462	-5% $529	+0% $597	+5% $664	+10% $731
Rate	-1.0pp $646	-0.5pp $622	base $597	+0.5pp $571	+1.0pp $545

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,625
• Closing costs: $2,955
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 47 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $98,500 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $98,500 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $98,500 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $98,500 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $98,500 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $98,500 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $98,500 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $98,500 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on marketlisting id $98,500 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-05-14
    price $99,500 104-char remark
12. 2026-04-08
    price $99,995 104-char remark
13. 2026-03-28
    price $104,995 104-char remark
14. 2026-03-23
    price $109,995 104-char remark
15. 2026-02-02
    price $119,995 104-char remark
16. 2026-01-14
    listed $129,000 Active 104-char remark
17. 2025-12-31
    historical
18. 2025-07-30
    price $129,995
19. 2025-07-11
    listed $120,000 Active
20. 2025-07-02
    historical
21. 2025-05-08
    status Active
22. 2025-05-07
    historical
23. 2025-05-01
    listed $129,995 Active
24. 2025-04-17
    historical $600
25. 2025-04-17
    historical
26. 2025-02-28
    price $119,995
27. 2025-02-09
    price $129,995
28. 2025-01-17
    listed $600
29. 2025-01-16
    listed $149,995 Active
30. 2025-01-15
    historical
31. 2025-01-12
    listed $149,995 Active
32. 2024-12-19
    historical
33. 2024-10-02
    price $149,995
34. 2024-10-02
    status Active
35. 2024-09-01
    historical
36. 2024-08-16
    price $99,995
37. 2024-06-19
    listed $129,995 Active
38. 2024-06-10
    historical
39. 2024-05-16
    price $149,994
40. 2024-03-21
    price $149,995
41. 2024-02-09
    price $155,000
42. 2024-01-10
    listed $145,000 Active
43. 2023-12-26
    historical
44. 2023-11-07
    price $139,500
45. 2023-10-25
    price $149,500
46. 2023-09-14
    price $155,000
47. 2023-06-26
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,413
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,518
• − Property taxes: −$1,478
• − Insurance: −$1,290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − Depreciation: −$2,865
• Taxable income: $5,997
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,439
• After-tax cash flow: $5,721/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.3% since first listed

39 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $98,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $99,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $99,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Price Changed $104,995 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $109,995 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $119,995 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $129,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-07-30 Price Changed $129,995 HARMLS
• 2025-07-11 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Listed $129,995 HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Rental Removed $600 HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-28 Price Changed $119,995 HARMLS
• 2025-02-09 Price Changed $129,995 HARMLS
• 2025-01-17 Listed for Rent $600 HARMLS
• 2025-01-16 Listed $149,995 HARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-01-12 Listed $149,995 HARMLS
• 2024-12-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $149,995 HARMLS
• 2024-10-02 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-09-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $99,995 HARMLS
• 2024-06-19 Listed $129,995 HARMLS
• 2024-06-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-05-16 Price Changed $149,994 HARMLS
• 2024-03-21 Price Changed $149,995 HARMLS
• 2024-02-09 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-10 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-11-07 Price Changed $139,500 HARMLS
• 2023-10-25 Price Changed $149,500 HARMLS
• 2023-09-14 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-26 Listed $165,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $166 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.