518 Elizabeth Ln · Lakeland, FL 33809

$29,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1971 4,748 sqft lot $292/mo HOA · 19% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fresh paint and newer carpet make this spotless home absolutely move-in ready! Super location, view of lake from front yard, just 4 houses up from lake.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Hoa community
• City water

Tags

• HOA COMMUNITY
• CITY WATER
• CITY SEWER
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• GYM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential mobile home (single wide); Zoned MH
• Financial info: Total annual fees reported $3,504
• HOA & community: Homeowners association required; Monthly association fee $292; Association fees cover cable TV, internet, grounds maintenance, sewer and water; Community amenities include fitness center and pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached garage (1 space)
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.11 acres (about 441 m²)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups or room listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $29k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $29k).
• Recommended offer: $28k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $200 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $870 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (41%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 92.37%
• DSCR: 5.11
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.92×
• Total profit: $31,857
• Equity at exit: $4,324

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.17×
• Total profit: $66,306
• Equity at exit: $2,507

Cash invested: $8,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,517 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$152
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,403/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$292
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $725

Max offer price $29,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,250
• Closing costs: $870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5233 US Highway 98 N Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,505	$1.89	3d	15	0.39mi
4645 N Socrum Loop Rd Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	412	$1,400	$3.39	23d	1	1.03mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	3d	24	1.06mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	23d	1	1.08mi
308 W Crescent Dr Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,150	$1.64	23d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $292 · $3,504/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-25
   price $29,000
3. 2026-04-16
   price $37,000
4. 2026-04-13
   price $44,000
5. 2026-03-31
   listed $49,000 Active
6. 2010-09-17
   historical
7. 2009-12-14
   listed $34,900
8. 2007-03-13
   soldstatus $41,000
9. 2007-03-06
   soldstatus $41,000 152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   Fresh paint and newer carpet make this spotless home absolutely move-in ready! Super location, view of lake from front yard, just 4 houses up from lake.

10. 2006-10-27
    listed $46,900 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    Fresh paint and newer carpet make this spotless home absolutely move-in ready! Super location, view of lake from front yard, just 4 houses up from lake.

11. 2005-05-18
    soldstatus $27,000
12. 2005-03-28
    listed $29,900
13. 1999-04-16
    soldstatus $22,000
14. 1990-01-01
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,624
• − Property taxes: −$1,403
• − Insurance: −$145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,456
• − Management: −$1,456
• − HOA: −$3,504
• − Depreciation: −$844
• Taxable income: $7,767
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,864
• After-tax cash flow: $5,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+11.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $29,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $37,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $44,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $49,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-14 Listed $34,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 2007-03-06 Sold (MLS) $41,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-27 Listed $46,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-18 Sold (MLS) $27,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-03-28 Listed $29,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1990-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,403 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.