202 Garden Arbor Ct · Lexington, SC 29072

$247,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,295 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2003 3,484 sqft lot $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ready to downsize and live a low maintenance lifestyle? This Parkside Patio Home delivers! The front yard mowing, landscaping and even power washing is taken care of. You have easy access to the heart of Lexington and Lake Murray. How nice to have the 3rd bedroom or office to suit your needs! LVP has been added to the living area and upstairs room. Don't forget the transferable termite bond! Virtual Staging used in select photos. Hurry Home, your easy care living is waiting! Disclaimer: CMLS has not reviewed and, therefore, does not endorse vendors who may appear in listings.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Landscaping
• 3rd bedroom

Tags

• PARKSIDE PATIO HOME
• FRONT YARD MOWING
• LANDSCAPING
• POWER WASHING
• EASY ACCESS
• 3RD BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present; Association maintains common areas, exterior, front yard, landscaping, and green areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car) with a total of 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Thermopane windows
• Home design: Vinyl exterior
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Sprinkler system; Full gutters; Rear wood privacy fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Wood (natural) cabinets; Galley-style kitchen; Laminate floors in kitchen; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave above stove; Free-standing self-cleaning smooth-surface range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on main level with walk-in closet, vaulted ceilings, tub/shower, ceiling fan, private closet, and carpeted floors
• Flooring: Carpet in primary bedroom; Luxury vinyl plank in living area; Laminate flooring in kitchen
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic storage with attic access; Ceiling fans; Garage opener; Smoke detector
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in closet with electric hookup; Washer and dryer included; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-801/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#8 in SC, #1,502 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A; Watch: commute F.
• Lexington 01 (suburban): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #11 of 80 in SC (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Murray Elementary (math 73% / reading 70%, grade A-, #32 of 597 statewide, top 5%, 901 students, 12% FRL); Lexington High (math 69% / reading 92%, grade A, #23 of 196 statewide, top 11%, 2,410 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools average 15% FRL vs 30% district-wide (15 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+28 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lexington 01 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 694 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,712 units permitted in Lexington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lexington County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,811 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,026
• Equity at exit: $36,903

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-42,446
• Equity at exit: $21,399

Cash invested: $69,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29072

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 694
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,828 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,298
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $923/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,913

Max offer price $235,714

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $73	-5% $3	+0% $-67	+5% $-137	+10% $-207
Rent	-10% $-211	-5% $-139	+0% $-67	+5% $5	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $-4	base $-67	+0.5pp $-131	+1.0pp $-196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,875
• Closing costs: $7,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
855 Park Rd Lexington, SC	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	24d	1	0.54mi
510 Conway Dr Lexington, SC	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	3d	1	0.70mi
333 Canary Grass Ct Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1672	$1,950	$1.17	14d	1	1.32mi
121 Park Ridge Way Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,100	$1.25	24d	1	1.32mi
759 Dawsons Park Way Lexington, SC	3.0	2.5	1468	$1,869	$1.27	21d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,500 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $247,500 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 583-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $249,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $923 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,411 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$488/yr (+$41/mo · 52.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,864
• − Property taxes: −$923
• − Insurance: −$1,238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,755
• − Management: −$1,755
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,200
• Taxable loss: −$5,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,246
• After-tax cash flow: $446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 01
• NCES district ID: 4502700
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,298
• Composite: 41.75/100
• National rank: #3399
• State rank: #11 of 80 in SC

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #1502

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington, SC
• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• City population: 122,563
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 69,407
• Household income: $106,382
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 858.0

Population outlook (Lexington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 322,999 people
• By 2030: 342,356 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 377,715 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 406,984 · +26.0%
• By 2075: 465,447 · +44.1%
• By 2100: 485,674 · +50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Serbian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lexington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.5) · D 32.5% · R 66.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -33.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.5 2020: R+30.1 2016: R+36.7 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -197.53%
• Current HPI: 212.3235
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.23%
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $249,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2024-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2024-09-03 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2024-08-19 Contingent — Consolidated MLS
• 2024-08-16 Listed $230,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2017-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $125,900 Public Records
• 2017-03-01 Price Changed $129,500 Consolidated MLS

Property tax history

-8.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $923 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.