5233 Bryant St · Erie, PA 16509

$186,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 2021 5,602 sqft lot $164/sqft · 18% below area Est $229k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this 76 x 15 Millcreek mobile home on ITS OWN LOT! The large master suite offers a walk-in closet and a private 14x7 bath. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath provide plenty of space for family or guests. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar peninsula and comes equipped with a Whirlpool gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher, all opening to the comfortable living area. Enjoy the relaxing backyard with a mature maple tree providing shade. A seven-year manufacturer’s warranty began in December 2021, offering added peace of mind.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Private bath
• Own lot

Tags

• MILLCREEK MOBILE HOME
• OWN LOT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• BREAKFAST BAR PENINSULA
• WHIRLPOOL GAS RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-680/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $177k (5.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Millcreek Township SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #105 of 539 in PA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 116 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $187k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $149,315 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.30%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,319
• List price: $186,900
• Delta: -18.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1425 Nicholson St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+5%)	4mo	$171,000	$143	63
1335 Nicholson St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,172 (+3%)	7mo	$145,000	$124	61
2018 Zimmerly Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,176 (+3%)	1mo	$255,000	$217	60
4903 Perkins St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,248 (+10%)	1mo	$270,000	$216	59
1510 High St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (+4%)	6mo	$144,900	$122	58
1429 Nicholson St	0.48mi	3/3.0	1,220 (+7%)	4mo	$281,100	$230	58
1546 W 43rd St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,184 (+4%)	0mo	$228,500	$193	55
1517 W 44th St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,211 (+6%)	1mo	$256,000	$211	53
4518 Harding Dr	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,215 (+7%)	6mo	$163,000	$134	46
4918 Dorchester Dr	0.66mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,264 (+11%)	5mo	$215,000	$170	40
1530 W 43rd St	0.74mi	3/2.0	984 (-14%)	7mo	$176,500	$179	37
919 W Gore Rd	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (+14%)	6mo	$203,000	$156	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-33,904
• Equity at exit: $27,867

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-34,214
• Equity at exit: $16,160

Cash invested: $52,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16509

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 116
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$980
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,139/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,565

Max offer price $176,896

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $49	-5% $-4	+0% $-57	+5% $-110	+10% $-162
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-116	+0% $-57	+5% $2	+10% $61
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $-9	base $-57	+0.5pp $-105	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,725
• Closing costs: $5,607
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1540 W 54th St Unit 156104 Erie, PA	2.0	1.0	952	$1,425	$1.50	44d	1	0.06mi
1717 Kuntz Rd Erie, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	687	$1,025	$1.49	44d	12	0.67mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $186,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $186,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $186,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $186,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $186,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $186,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $186,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $186,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $186,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $186,900 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $186,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $186,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $186,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $186,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $186,900 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $186,900 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $186,900 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Welcome home to this 76 x 15 Millcreek mobile home on ITS OWN LOT! The large master suite offers a walk-in closet and a private 14x7 bath. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath provide plenty of space for family or guests. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar peninsula and comes equipped with a Whirlpool gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher, all opening to the comfortable living area. Enjoy the relaxing backyard with a mature maple tree providing shade. A seven-year manufacturer’s warranty began in December 2021, offering added peace of mind.

18. 2026-04-17
    listed $189,900 Active 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Welcome home to this 76 x 15 Millcreek mobile home on ITS OWN LOT! The large master suite offers a walk-in closet and a private 14x7 bath. Two additional bedrooms and a full bath provide plenty of space for family or guests. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar peninsula and comes equipped with a Whirlpool gas range, refrigerator, and dishwasher, all opening to the comfortable living area. Enjoy the relaxing backyard with a mature maple tree providing shade. A seven-year manufacturer’s warranty began in December 2021, offering added peace of mind.

19. 2022-12-29
    soldstatus $105,000
20. 2022-12-23
    soldstatus $105,000 Closed
21. 2022-12-09
    soldstatus $105,000 Closed
22. 2022-11-28
    status Pending
23. 2022-11-28
    status Pending
24. 2022-11-04
    listed $129,000 Active
25. 2022-11-04
    listed $129,000 Active
26. 2022-03-01
    listed $129,000 Active
27. 2018-04-06
    listed $19,500
28. 2017-06-06
    listed $19,500
29. 2014-09-30
    listed $19,900
30. 2013-10-01
    listed $24,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,139 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,546 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$407/yr (+$34/mo · 19.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,918
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,469
• − Property taxes: −$2,139
• − Insurance: −$934
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$5,437
• Taxable loss: −$3,929
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$943
• After-tax cash flow: $263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millcreek Township SD
• NCES district ID: 4215330
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $55,734
• Composite: 47.82/100
• National rank: #2224
• State rank: #105 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 28,595
• Household income: $68,846
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 870.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.54%
• Current HPI: 240.361
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+650.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $186,900 GEBOR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $189,900 GEBOR
• 2022-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $105,000 Public Records
• 2022-12-23 Sold (MLS) $105,000 GEBOR
• 2022-12-09 Sold (MLS) $105,000 West Penn MLS
• 2022-11-28 Pending — GEBOR
• 2022-11-28 Pending — West Penn MLS
• 2022-11-04 Listed $129,000 West Penn MLS
• 2022-11-04 Listed $129,000 GEBOR
• 2022-03-01 Listed $129,000 GEBOR
• 2018-04-06 Listed $19,500 GEBOR
• 2017-06-06 Listed $19,500 GEBOR
• 2014-09-30 Listed $19,900 GEBOR
• 2013-10-01 Listed $24,900 GEBOR

Property tax history

+17.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,139 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.