6502 Oak Hammock Ln · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1998 6,003 sqft lot $65/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Best deal in Garden Grove Oaks! 55 plus manufactured home in Garden Grove Oaks! One of the best values in the community given the size, price and condition. Quietly tucked away in the peaceful 55+ community of Garden Grove Oaks, this home in excellent condition with lots of valuable updating and a spacious interior easy living. This move-in-ready 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers thoughtful updates designed for easy, low-maintenance living, including double-pane energy-efficient windows, luxury vinyl plank flooring, a brand-new water heater, extra wide driveway, covered carport, screened patio, and a workshop/storage space. Inside, the bright and

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Open layout
• Storage area

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• EXPANDED DRIVEWAY
• COVERED SCREENED PATIO
• COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE AREA
• OPEN LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption present
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $65; Total annual fees $780; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $65 (required) — association approval required; Association amenities: Clubhouse, Pool, Shuffleboard court; Buyer approval required; Deed restrictions; Golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed (max 30 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 1-car carport; Garage (12x21)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Single-story; North-facing; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal and shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Screened porch; Covered patio; Storage; Mature landscaping; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Outside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $403 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $149k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Garden Grove Elementary School (math 49% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 723 students, 46% FRL); Denison Middle School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 738 students, 69% FRL); Winter Haven Senior High School (math 26% / reading 38%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 2,467 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 689 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.21%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,837
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $21,243
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 689
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,088/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$65
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $403

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,408

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $498	-5% $451	+0% $403	+5% $355	+10% $307
Rent	-10% $251	-5% $327	+0% $403	+5% $479	+10% $554
Rate	-1.0pp $488	-0.5pp $446	base $403	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5608 Lake Fox Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,400	$1.61	25d	1	0.67mi
1019 Mockingbird Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	16d	1	0.72mi
612 Heather Glen Loop Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$2,000	$1.17	25d	1	0.91mi
1015 Lake Forest Blvd Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,840	$1.98	4d	24	1.04mi
728 Lake Ned Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$2,000	$1.20	25d	1	1.07mi
4025 Lake Ned Village Cir Winter Haven, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,530	$1.49	4d	8	1.07mi
36 Enclave Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,990	$1.30	25d	1	1.23mi
3904 Osprey Pointe Cir Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1709	$1,950	$1.14	25d	1	1.28mi
616 Crystals Blvd Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1575	$1,900	$1.21	25d	1	1.28mi
140 Poe Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1906	$2,250	$1.18	25d	1	1.32mi
408 Lake Ned Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,100	$1.43	25d	1	1.32mi
206 Kingshill Ct SE Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,800	$1.23	4d	1	1.42mi
3601 Cypress Gardens Rd Unit 6 Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	25d	1	1.43mi
3110 Gowan Dr Winter Haven, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,841	$1.83	16d	24	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $65 · $780/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $169,000 Pending 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,000 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,000 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,000 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-03-27
   status Active
6. 2026-03-06
   status Pending
7. 2026-01-03
   price $169,000
8. 2025-11-04
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,088 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$1,088
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − HOA: −$780
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $2,236
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$537
• After-tax cash flow: $4,297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Listed $175,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,088 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.