103 Hinton Cir · Tupelo, MS 38801

$229,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,955 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 1983 7,152 sqft lot $117/sqft · at area comps Est $255k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet Circle. Great Neighborhood. Check out this beautiful 3BR/2BA with sitting room, office, or playroom. Located in Hillsplace subdivision, this totally remodeled home is one you do not want to miss! Tiled bathrooms, carpeted bedrooms and new paint throughout with new kitchen appliances (except refrigerator) are just a few eye catching details. Enjoy your afternoons in your spacious den with gorgeous hardwood flooring and shiplap accents. * Structural report on file. Seller is related to agent. All info subject to verification.

Key facts

• Culdesac for privacy
• Concrete patio
• 7,152 sq ft lot

Tags

• CULDESAC FOR PRIVACY
• NEWLY FENCED IN BACKYARD
• CONCRETE PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $147k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#26 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Tupelo Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 130 in MS (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parkway Elementary School (452 students, 99% FRL); Tupelo Middle School (math 51% / reading 40%, grade D+, #41 of 179 statewide, top 23%, 1,080 students, 100% FRL); Tupelo High School (math 32% / reading 41%, grade F, #63 of 197 statewide, top 32%, 2,001 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.3%/yr); 236 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $168k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,617 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.24%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,882
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -10.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1244 Winwood Cv	0.48mi	3/2.5	2,100 (+7%)	20mo	$225,000	$107	42
1930 Mitchell Rd	0.66mi	3/2.0	2,203 (+13%)	23mo	$265,000	$120	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-48,394
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,700
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38801

• Home prices YoY: -20.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.3%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,466 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,704/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,821

Max offer price $179,526

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-150	-5% $-215	+0% $-280	+5% $-345	+10% $-410
Rent	-10% $-396	-5% $-338	+0% $-280	+5% $-222	+10% $-164
Rate	-1.0pp $-165	-0.5pp $-222	base $-280	+0.5pp $-339	+1.0pp $-400

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $229,000 Pending 152 DOM
2. 2026-03-30
   status Active
3. 2026-03-30
   price $229,000
4. 2025-10-24
   price $235,000
5. 2025-09-30
   listed $240,000 Active
6. 2021-03-16
   soldstatus 536-char remark

   Show marketing remark (536 chars)

   Quiet Circle. Great Neighborhood. Check out this beautiful 3BR/2BA with sitting room, office, or playroom. Located in Hillsplace subdivision, this totally remodeled home is one you do not want to miss! Tiled bathrooms, carpeted bedrooms and new paint throughout with new kitchen appliances (except refrigerator) are just a few eye catching details. Enjoy your afternoons in your spacious den with gorgeous hardwood flooring and shiplap accents. * Structural report on file. Seller is related to agent. All info subject to verification.

7. 2021-03-10
   soldstatus $167,500
8. 2021-02-01
   listed $167,500 536-char remark

   Show marketing remark (536 chars)

   Quiet Circle. Great Neighborhood. Check out this beautiful 3BR/2BA with sitting room, office, or playroom. Located in Hillsplace subdivision, this totally remodeled home is one you do not want to miss! Tiled bathrooms, carpeted bedrooms and new paint throughout with new kitchen appliances (except refrigerator) are just a few eye catching details. Enjoy your afternoons in your spacious den with gorgeous hardwood flooring and shiplap accents. * Structural report on file. Seller is related to agent. All info subject to verification.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,704 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,809 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$105/yr (+$9/mo · 6.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,594
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,704
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$7,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,814
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tupelo Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2804320
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $44,002
• Composite: 37.26/100
• National rank: #4456
• State rank: #28 of 130 in MS

Livability — Tupelo

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #6369

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tupelo, MS
• County: Lee County · 52,445 people
• City population: 46,551
• Metro: Tupelo, MS
• Population (ZIP): 29,858
• Household income: $62,946
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 890.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,253 people
• By 2030: 92,125 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 94,914 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 95,841 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 94,189 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 83,736 · -7.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 44% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.5pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+30.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.12%
• Current HPI: 173.1355
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.30%
• Metro: Tupelo, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+36.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Relisted — NEMSBD
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $229,000 NEMSBD
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $235,000 NEMSBD
• 2025-09-30 Listed $240,000 NEMSBD
• 2021-03-16 Sold (MLS) — NEMSBD
• 2021-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $167,500 Public Records
• 2021-02-01 Listed $167,500 NEMSBD

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,704 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.