719 Connelly St · Paris, IL 61944

$124,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,346 sqft · SingleFamily · 153 Days on market

Built 1935 10,199 sqft lot Est $114k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• ARV discount +3.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Call today. Come inside and see this nice ranch home, with some hard wood floors, 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, a very large yard, with a one car garage. Tons of character, waiting for your finishing touches.

Key facts

• Hard wood floors
• Tons of character
• Very large yard

Tags

• HARD WOOD FLOORS
• VERY LARGE YARD
• TONS OF CHARACTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($657/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#342 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris-Union SD 95 (town): math 25% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #227 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Memorial Elementary School (286 students, 0% FRL); Mayo Middle School (math 30% / reading 54%, grade D-, #116 of 665 statewide, top 19%, 250 students, 0% FRL); Paris Cooperative High School 95 (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #473 of 693 statewide, top 69%, 367 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Edgar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $861 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Edgar County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.88%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,410
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
719 Connelly St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,346 (0%)	1mo	$115,000	$85	99
702 N Main St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,406 (+4%)	8mo	$94,500	$67	82
704 N Main St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,288 (-4%)	12mo	$82,000	$64	74
228 Ann St	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (-5%)	8mo	$125,000	$98	70
602 Sunrise Ct	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,320 (-2%)	14mo	$125,000	$95	62
711 Vance St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,237 (-8%)	14mo	$50,000	$40	58
414 N Central Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,438 (+7%)	11mo	$70,000	$49	57
503 Walcott St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,153 (-14%)	4mo	$65,000	$56	50
702 E Blackburn St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,248 (-7%)	9mo	$130,900	$105	48
502 E Wood St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,450 (+8%)	14mo	$68,000	$47	41
7 Woodhall Pl	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,164 (-14%)	8mo	$136,000	$117	40
710 E Blackburn St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,180 (-12%)	10mo	$135,000	$114	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-16,670
• Equity at exit: $18,563

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-9,954
• Equity at exit: $10,764

Cash invested: $34,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61944

• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,158 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$653
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,868/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$243
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,089

Max offer price $124,500

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $98	+0% $55	+5% $12	+10% $-31
Rent	-10% $-37	-5% $9	+0% $55	+5% $101	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $86	base $55	+0.5pp $22	+1.0pp $-10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,125
• Closing costs: $3,735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-29
   status Active
3. 2026-01-29
   price $124,500
4. 2025-10-01
   listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,974
• − Property taxes: −$1,868
• − Insurance: −$622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,112
• − Management: −$1,112
• − Depreciation: −$3,622
• Taxable loss: −$1,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$338
• After-tax cash flow: $995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris-Union SD 95
• NCES district ID: 1730750
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,294
• Composite: 27.73/100
• National rank: #6901
• State rank: #227 of 620 in IL

Livability — Paris

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #342
• US rank: #6933

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, IL
• City population: 11,426
• Population (ZIP): 11,426

Population outlook (Edgar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,960 people
• By 2030: 14,978 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 12,990 · -18.6%
• By 2050: 11,087 · -30.5%
• By 2075: 7,338 · -54.0%
• By 2100: 4,526 · -71.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Edgar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.4) · D 23.0% · R 75.3% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.4pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -52.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.4 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+32.8 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.48%
• Current HPI: 108.1718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+4.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Pending — CIBR
• 2026-01-29 Relisted — CIBR
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $124,500 CIBR
• 2025-10-01 Listed $119,000 CIBR

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.