5909 Lawson Ln · Milton, FL 32570

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1987 0.33 ac lot Est $268k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Are you looking for an affordable home in a convenient location? This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious floor plan with a large living room, cozy fireplace, and a generously sized yard with plenty of room to relax, entertain, or create your ideal outdoor space. Features include three bedrooms, two full bathrooms, a welcoming living area, and a desirable location close to local amenities, shopping, dining, and schools. Being sold as-is (no known issues), this property presents a great opportunity for homeowners looking to add their personal touch or investors seeking their next project. With solid potential and plenty of charm, this home is ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• Desirable location
• Large living room
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GENEROUSLY SIZED YARD
• WELCOMING LIVING AREA
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on a county-maintained road
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with side entrance; Two covered parking spaces (total 2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: One-story single-family home; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Insulation indicated for energy efficiency
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Interior lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10.3' x 16.3'); Additional bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10' x 11')
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Tile and carpet flooring; Double-pane windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.6% in Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#166 in FL, #2,480 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. H. Rhodes Elementary School (math 55% / reading 47%, grade C-, #1,043 of 2,144 statewide, top 49%, 812 students, 79% FRL); Hobbs Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 700 students, 63% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 65% FRL vs 36% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 48% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $225k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,275 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.98%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,615
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6136 Arnies Way	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,673 (+7%)	2mo	$285,000	$170	82
5898 Cedar Tree Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	1mo	$265,000	$170	79
6028 Players Pl	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,730 (+10%)	1mo	$365,000	$211	69
5773 Hermitage Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,718 (+10%)	3mo	$250,000	$146	64
6008 Kingswood Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-4%)	5mo	$225,000	$149	62
6108 Arnies Way	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,762 (+13%)	10mo	$297,000	$169	60
5905 Castle Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,492 (-5%)	6mo	$255,000	$171	55
5899 Cedar Tree Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,425 (-9%)	13mo	$290,000	$204	54
5745 Hermitage Cir	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,748 (+12%)	7mo	$320,000	$183	52
5633 Lia Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+10%)	8mo	$295,000	$171	46
6028 Laurelwood Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,748 (+12%)	10mo	$309,000	$177	45
5887 Southern Bell Ct	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,747 (+12%)	8mo	$275,000	$157	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-27,159
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-13,486
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,013 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,922/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,815

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $220	+0% $156	+5% $93	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $-3	-5% $77	+0% $156	+5% $236	+10% $315
Rate	-1.0pp $270	-0.5pp $213	base $156	+0.5pp $98	+1.0pp $39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5723 Maggie Rose Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	15d	1	0.95mi
5723 Maggie Rose Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,000	$1.24	25d	1	0.95mi
5733 Orange St Milton, FL	3.0	1.5	1640	$1,500	$0.91	25d	1	1.03mi
5555 Hannah St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	2010	$1,900	$0.95	25d	1	1.06mi
5837 Berryhill Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1131	$1,950	$1.72	22d	1	1.18mi
6707 Cedar Ridge Cir Milton, FL	3.0	2.5	1669	$1,900	$1.14	15d	1	1.44mi
6716 Barnwood Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,850	$1.06	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 682-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 664-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $225,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,922 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,922
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$1,907
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$458
• After-tax cash flow: $2,333/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Milton

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #2480

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 69,025
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+276.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $225,000 PARMLS
• 2007-10-30 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2007-06-13 Listed $139,900 PARMLS
• 1998-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1989-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $59,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,922 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.