312 Townbridge Dr · Lake Alfred, FL 33844

$195,999

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · Manufactured public records · 527 Days on market

Built 1989 4,874 sqft lot $387/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Own your own land! This 2/2 spacious home has extra rooms such as a family room, outdoor deck, and Florida Room. The rooms are all large, with the kitchen open to the family room and a dinette area. Split bedroom floor plan. Updated kitchen! Inside Laundry and NO Grey Pipe! A Community where you enjoy $3.00 Green Fees as part of your HOA dues! In this very friendly, resident-owned community, you can be as active or inactive as you choose! Gatherings at the private Pub or the Community Room, fishing on Lake Henry, gardening, tennis, golf, shuffle board, horseshoes, swimming in the heated pool, enjoy the hot tub or the workout room! Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws. HOA INCLUDES 3 HD CABLE BOXES AND INTERNET!

Key facts

• New ss appliances
• A/c florida room
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• A/C FLORIDA ROOM
• NEW SS APPLIANCES
• BREAKFAST BAR
• TILT-IN DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• LUXURY LAMINATE FLOORS
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Boat slips are a monthly rental and include trailer storage
• Financial info: Total annual association fees approximately $4,644; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (monthly fee required, association approval required); Monthly HOA fee approximately $387 (includes cable TV, internet, pool, sewer, trash, water, private road, common area taxes, recreational facilities, security, escrow reserves); Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, golf course access, gated entry, storage, recreation facilities; Community features: deed restrictions, buyer approval required, golf carts allowed, wheelchair access, street lights, association recreation owned

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; Off-street parking; 2-car carport
• Security: Located in a gated community
• Utilities: Private water source; Private sewer; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Underground utilities; Water connected; Fire hydrant nearby; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home (Home of Merit model GLEN); One story; Facing southeast; Crawlspace foundation; Completed condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built on crawlspace
• Exterior features: Deck; Rear porch; Side porch; Landscaped lot; Level lot; Near golf course; Near public transit; Paved and privately maintained road (road maintenance agreement); Private property; Boat access to Lake Henry; Assigned boat slip availability; Private boat ramp and fishing pier access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Heat recovery unit; Central air conditioning; Humidity control
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen and family room combined; Living and dining room combined; Open floor plan; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Window treatments; Skylights; Blinds; Double-pane/insulated ENERGY STAR windows; Storm windows; Water filtration system; Exhaust fan
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Inside utility; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($228/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $196k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horizons Elementary School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,468 students, 42% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Haines City Senior High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #544 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 2,700 students, 58% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1344 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 527 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $144k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,479 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 527 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.41%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-33,978
• Equity at exit: $29,224

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-41,564
• Equity at exit: $16,946

Cash invested: $54,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1344
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,960 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $393/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$387
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,936

Max offer price $195,999

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $130	-5% $74	+0% $19	+5% $-261	+10% $-329
Rent	-10% $-136	-5% $-58	+0% $19	+5% $96	+10% $174
Rate	-1.0pp $118	-0.5pp $69	base $19	+0.5pp $-32	+1.0pp $-83

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,000
• Closing costs: $5,880
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3329 Aruba Way Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,200	$1.32	25d	1	0.95mi
6004 Bimini Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,750	$1.18	25d	1	1.15mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,900	$1.74	16d	1	1.22mi
3000 US Highway 17 92 W Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1248	$1,800	$1.44	5d	1	1.24mi
4955 Old Lucerne Park Rd Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$2,050	$1.27	25d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $387 · $4,644/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepool

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $195,999 Active 527 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,999 Active 524 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $195,999 Active 523 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 523 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 522 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 521 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 519 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 516 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 515 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 514 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 513 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 510 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 508 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 507 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 506 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $199,900
17. 2026-04-02
    price $199,899
18. 2025-11-01
    price $199,900
19. 2025-05-18
    price $208,000
20. 2025-01-10
    listed $215,000 Active
21. 2020-12-14
    soldstatus $144,500
22. 2020-12-09
    soldstatus $144,500 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Own your own land! This 2/2 spacious home has extra rooms such as a family room, outdoor deck, and Florida Room. The rooms are all large, with the kitchen open to the family room and a dinette area. Split bedroom floor plan. Updated kitchen! Inside Laundry and NO Grey Pipe! A Community where you enjoy $3.00 Green Fees as part of your HOA dues! In this very friendly, resident-owned community, you can be as active or inactive as you choose! Gatherings at the private Pub or the Community Room, fishing on Lake Henry, gardening, tennis, golf, shuffle board, horseshoes, swimming in the heated pool, enjoy the hot tub or the workout room! Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws. HOA INCLUDES 3 HD CABLE BOXES AND INTERNET!

23. 2020-12-09
    listed $144,500 811-char remark

    Show marketing remark (811 chars)

    Own your own land! This 2/2 spacious home has extra rooms such as a family room, outdoor deck, and Florida Room. The rooms are all large, with the kitchen open to the family room and a dinette area. Split bedroom floor plan. Updated kitchen! Inside Laundry and NO Grey Pipe! A Community where you enjoy $3.00 Green Fees as part of your HOA dues! In this very friendly, resident-owned community, you can be as active or inactive as you choose! Gatherings at the private Pub or the Community Room, fishing on Lake Henry, gardening, tennis, golf, shuffle board, horseshoes, swimming in the heated pool, enjoy the hot tub or the workout room! Contact agent for this community's website address and documents, including Rules/Regs, Application, Financial, and Bylaws. HOA INCLUDES 3 HD CABLE BOXES AND INTERNET!

24. 2016-01-08
    soldstatus $117,600
25. 2007-03-19
    soldstatus $110,000
26. 2007-02-12
    historical
27. 2007-01-08
    listed $129,900
28. 2006-03-17
    soldstatus $100,000
29. 2005-11-21
    soldstatus $105,500
30. 2000-03-21
    soldstatus $55,000
31. 1992-12-11
    soldstatus $61,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $393 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,627 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,234/yr (+$103/mo · 313.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,979
• − Property taxes: −$393
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,881
• − Management: −$1,881
• − HOA: −$4,644
• − Depreciation: −$5,702
• Taxable loss: −$2,943
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$706
• After-tax cash flow: $934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 1,109
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+225.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $199,899 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-01 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-18 Price Changed $208,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-10 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $144,500 Public Records
• 2020-12-09 Listed $144,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-09 Sold (MLS) $144,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $117,600 Public Records
• 2007-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2007-02-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-08 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2005-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $105,500 Public Records
• 2000-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1992-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $393 · +39.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.