17229 Treat Ave · Happy Valley, CA 96007

$166,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,612 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 1980 4.95 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Bring your contractor and your vision - this property offers the rare chance to finish a custom build or create your dream estate from the ground up!

Key facts

• 4.95 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total units: 1; Living area source: Assessor's data; Lot size source: Assessor's data; Parcel number on record
• Financial info: Assessments: Unknown
• HOA & community: Foothills community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces; 2 parking spaces total
• Utilities: Well water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Attached property; 2 total stories
• Construction: Year built per assessor; 2+ common walls
• Exterior features: House; No pool; Lot described as 2–5 units per acre; Has a view; Access road frontage

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Multi-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Two main-level bathrooms
• Interior features: Two levels; East-facing entry; Entry on level 1
• Laundry & utility: No laundry room (none listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $553 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $166k).
• Recommended offer: $156k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.4% in Happy Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Happy Valley Union Elementary (rural): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #414 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 224 active listings in the ZIP; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($156k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,040 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.28%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $353,028
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17096 Flowers Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+0%)	10mo	$325,000	$201	72
6275 Horseshoe Ln	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,637 (+2%)	4mo	$405,000	$247	60
17145 Flowers Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+7%)	22mo	$378,000	$219	55
17111 Fuzzy Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-11%)	11mo	$160,000	$111	46
17456 Flowers Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,410 (-12%)	15mo	$345,000	$245	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,287
• Equity at exit: $24,751

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $52,390
• Equity at exit: $14,353

Cash invested: $46,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96007

• Active inventory: 224
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$871
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $553

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,290

Max offer price $166,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,500
• Closing costs: $4,980
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $166,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $166,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $166,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $166,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $166,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $166,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $166,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $166,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $166,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $166,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $166,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-05-16
    status Pending Sale
13. 2026-03-18
    price $166,000
14. 2026-03-06
    listed $216,000 Active
15. 2026-03-01
    historical $216,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,262 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$310/yr (+$26/mo · 32.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,299
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$830
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − Depreciation: −$4,829
• Taxable income: $4,151
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$996
• After-tax cash flow: $5,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Happy Valley Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0616570
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,093
• Composite: 21.32/100
• National rank: #8375
• State rank: #414 of 517 in CA

Livability — Happy Valley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Happy Valley, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 24,768
• Household income: $61,357
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 758.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.70%
• Current HPI: 179.6613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — CRMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $166,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $216,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-01 Coming Soon $216,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.