4933 E Johnson Rd · Norwich, MI 49651

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 1970 9.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

HUD owned home situated on 9.36 wooded acres in Northeast Missaukee County, an outdoor enthusiast's paradise! Surrounded by abundant state land and recreational trails, this area is ideal for ORV riding, hunting, hiking, and year round adventure. This property directly adjoins state land, providing even more room to explore right from your backyard. The 2 bedroom, 1 bath home needs some repairs and updates but offers tremendous potential as an up-north getaway, hunting cabin, or weekend retreat. A spacious 26' x 36' pole barn provides ample storage for vehicles, ATVs, equipment, and recreational toys, and extra wood shed. If you're looking for privacy, seclusion, and a property that's truly

Key facts

• Recreational trails
• Storage for vehicles
• Privacy

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• RECREATIONAL TRAILS
• BACKYARD ACCESS
• POLE BARN
• STORAGE FOR VEHICLES
• PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property acreage: 9.36

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system
• Home design: Residential single-story home; Built in 1970
• Construction: Wood exterior; Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Shed on the property; Gravel, seasonal road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (12 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (approximately 12 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; LP/Propane gas fuel
• Interior features: Living room (approximately 12 x 12); Kitchen (approximately 12 x 12); Main-level laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (0.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake City Area School District (rural): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #282 of 540 in MI (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 35 units permitted in Missaukee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Missaukee County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $84,959

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.40%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-3,202
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $10,718
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49651

• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $281/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $191	+0% $167	+5% $143	+10% $118
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $133	+0% $167	+5% $200	+10% $234
Rate	-1.0pp $209	-0.5pp $188	base $167	+0.5pp $145	+1.0pp $122

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on marketlisting id $85,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $85,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $281 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $795 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$514/yr (+$43/mo · 182.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$281
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$816
• − Management: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $624
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$150
• After-tax cash flow: $1,849/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake City Area School District
• NCES district ID: 2620610
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,910
• Composite: 30.1/100
• National rank: #6338
• State rank: #282 of 540 in MI

Livability — Norwich

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,540

Population outlook (Missaukee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,724 people
• By 2030: 14,434 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 13,734 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 12,958 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 11,184 · -24.0%
• By 2100: 8,613 · -41.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Missaukee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.0) · D 21.2% · R 77.2% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.0pp · 2024: -56.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.0 2020: R+53.5 2016: R+52.3 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+21.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -156.77%
• Current HPI: 172.1519
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $85,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $281 · -60.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.