Princeton Plan · Magnolia, TX 77354

$504,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 110 Days on market

↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4-5 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | Approx. 3,000 Sq. Ft. The Princeton offers flexible living space that blends modern design with everyday functionality-perfect for families of all sizes. With open gathering areas and private retreats throughout, this thoughtfully designed two-story home is as practical as it is beautiful. Step through the welcoming foyer, and you'll immediately feel the home's open flow. The chef-inspired kitchen features an oversized island, walk-in pantry, and the option for an enlarged chef's island. It connects effortlessly to the casual dining area and great room, creating a bright, open space ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The flex room near the entry adds versatility, serving as a study, formal dining room, or additional bedroom depending on your needs. Outdoor living is effortless with a covered patio that can be extended for gatherings or quiet evenings outside. The primary suite, conveniently located on the main floor, serves as a peaceful retreat with a luxurious bath, dual vanities, a soaking tub, spacious shower with a seat, and an oversized walk-in closet. Buyers can personalize the suite by adding a door directly from the closet to the laundry room for added convenience. Upstairs, two secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, and a full bathroom provide privacy for guests or children. Buyers may also choose an alternative layout with one secondary bedroom and a spacious game room, providing the perfect setting for family fun, study time,

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Luxurious bath
• Covered patio

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• WALK IN PANTRY
• COVERED PATIO
• PRIMARY SUITE
• LUXURIOUS BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $504,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $617,085.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $505k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $249k (50.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (56.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (56.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $66k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $62k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$106k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($460k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,614 (56.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 57% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.35% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.68%
• DSCR: 0.21
• GRM: 23.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $617,085
• List price: $504,990
• Delta: -18.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12603 Damuth Ct	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,909 (-3%)	5mo	$634,000	$218	86
40323 Community Rd	0.16mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,105 (+4%)	1mo	$920,000	$296	81
12413 S Hill Ct	0.12mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,860 (-5%)	4mo	$339,000	$119	79
40393 Mostyn Dr	0.23mi	4/3.5	3,172 (+6%)	6mo	$549,900	$173	73
40931 Westley Ln	0.45mi	4/3.5	3,053 (+2%)	3mo	$724,900	$237	71
2 Heritage Ln	0.55mi	4/2.5	3,069 (+2%)	1mo	$4,200,000	$1,369	68
40110 Mostyn Dr	0.63mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,067 (+2%)	3mo	$775,951	$253	57
12747 Dina Springs Ln	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,760 (-8%)	4mo	$332,990	$121	55
12650 Luger Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	3,131 (+4%)	6mo	$685,000	$219	54
40748 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.74mi	4/3.5	2,689 (-10%)	1mo	$319,990	$119	45
13074 Sarah Springs Way	0.69mi	4/3.5	2,695 (-10%)	6mo	$319,990	$119	44
40704 Mostyn Lake Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	2,663 (-11%)	6mo	$318,990	$120	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $168,282
• Equity at exit: $555,919

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $612,741
• Equity at exit: $1,198,860

Cash invested: $172,784 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 19.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$771 /mo · $9,256/yr
• Insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-2,545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,398

Max offer price $248,764

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,119	-5% $-2,332	+0% $-2,545	+5% $-2,759	+10% $-2,972
Rent	-10% $-2,717	-5% $-2,631	+0% $-2,545	+5% $-2,459	+10% $-2,373
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,235	-0.5pp $-2,388	base $-2,545	+0.5pp $-2,705	+1.0pp $-2,868

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $154,271
• Closing costs: $18,513
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13423 Maltessa Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2285	$1,300	$0.57	3d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $504,990 Active 110 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $504,990 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $504,990 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $504,990 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $504,990 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $504,990 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $504,990 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $504,990 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $504,990 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $504,990 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $504,990 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $494,990 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $494,990 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $494,990 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    4-5 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | Approx. 3,000 Sq. Ft. The Princeton offers flexible living space that blends modern design with everyday functionality-perfect for families of all sizes. With open gathering areas and private retreats throughout, this thoughtfully designed two-story home is as practical as it is beautiful. Step through the welcoming foyer, and you'll immediately feel the home's open flow. The chef-inspired kitchen features an oversized island, walk-in pantry, and the option for an enlarged chef's island. It connects effortlessly to the casual dining area and great room, creating a bright, open space ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The flex room near the entry adds versatility, serving as a study, formal dining room, or additional bedroom depending on your needs. Outdoor living is effortless with a covered patio that can be extended for gatherings or quiet evenings outside. The primary suite, conveniently located on the main floor, serves as a peaceful retreat with a luxurious bath, dual vanities, a soaking tub, spacious shower with a seat, and an oversized walk-in closet. Buyers can personalize the suite by adding a door directly from the closet to the laundry room for added convenience. Upstairs, two secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, and a full bathroom provide privacy for guests or children. Buyers may also choose an alternative layout with one secondary bedroom and a spacious game room, providing the perfect setting for family fun, study time,

15. 2026-02-28
    listed $535,990 Active 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    4-5 Bedrooms | 3 Bathrooms | Approx. 3,000 Sq. Ft. The Princeton offers flexible living space that blends modern design with everyday functionality-perfect for families of all sizes. With open gathering areas and private retreats throughout, this thoughtfully designed two-story home is as practical as it is beautiful. Step through the welcoming foyer, and you'll immediately feel the home's open flow. The chef-inspired kitchen features an oversized island, walk-in pantry, and the option for an enlarged chef's island. It connects effortlessly to the casual dining area and great room, creating a bright, open space ideal for entertaining or relaxing. The flex room near the entry adds versatility, serving as a study, formal dining room, or additional bedroom depending on your needs. Outdoor living is effortless with a covered patio that can be extended for gatherings or quiet evenings outside. The primary suite, conveniently located on the main floor, serves as a peaceful retreat with a luxurious bath, dual vanities, a soaking tub, spacious shower with a seat, and an oversized walk-in closet. Buyers can personalize the suite by adding a door directly from the closet to the laundry room for added convenience. Upstairs, two secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, and a full bathroom provide privacy for guests or children. Buyers may also choose an alternative layout with one secondary bedroom and a spacious game room, providing the perfect setting for family fun, study time,

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,114
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,566
• − Property taxes: −$9,256
• − Insurance: −$3,085
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,089
• − Management: −$2,089
• − Depreciation: −$17,952
• Taxable loss: −$42,924
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,302
• After-tax cash flow: $-20,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $494,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-28 Listed $535,990 Zillow