859 Fayette St · Gary, IN 46403

$179,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1939 8,538 sqft lot Est $182k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

859 Fayette Street, is a 4 bedroom 2 bath. Within walking-distance to the South Shore Train station. Very close to the downtown Miller section. AS IS WHERE IS

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Off-street parking
• 8,538 sq ft lot

Tags

• COMPLETE GUT RENOVATION
• LARGE BACKYARD
• OFF-STREET PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (5.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (5.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $179k implies a 795% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,076 (5.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.88%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $182,104
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
859 Elkhart St	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,768 (0%)	9mo	$183,000	$104	90
836 Fayette St	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (-4%)	1mo	$165,000	$97	86
5544 E 10th Ave	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,700 (-4%)	1mo	$263,000	$155	85
1157 S Hamilton St	0.35mi	4/1.5	1,608 (-9%)	2mo	$118,700	$74	65
1037 E 11th Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,844 (+4%)	9mo	$185,000	$100	57
1100 S Lake St	0.36mi	4/1.5	2,016 (+14%)	3mo	$106,000	$53	55
4725 E 13th Pl	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,872 (+6%)	12mo	$234,000	$125	51
646 N New Hampshire St	0.73mi	4/2.5	1,880 (+6%)	3mo	$151,000	$80	51
4501 E 13th Pl	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,534 (-13%)	11mo	$225,000	$147	39
4440 E 13th Pl	0.64mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,016 (+14%)	3mo	$208,000	$103	37
4308 E 5th Pl	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,998 (+13%)	2mo	$125,000	$63	35
357 S Huntington St	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,997 (+13%)	11mo	$244,900	$123	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,797
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $13,793
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46403

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $421/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,327

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $389	-5% $338	+0% $287	+5% $237	+10% $186
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $221	+0% $287	+5% $354	+10% $421
Rate	-1.0pp $377	-0.5pp $333	base $287	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $194

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1226 Cass St Gary, IN	4.0	2.0	1832	$1,650	$0.90	44d	1	0.45mi
4408 E 7th Ave Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1920	$1,200	$0.62	0d	1	0.54mi
7009 E 1st Ave Gary, IN	3.0	1.5	1680	$2,575	$1.53	18d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   listed $179,000 Active
3. 2026-01-27
   historical
4. 2025-11-13
   price $199,000
5. 2025-08-05
   listed $224,900 Active
6. 2024-04-15
   soldstatus $20,000 Closed 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   859 Fayette Street, is a 4 bedroom 2 bath. Within walking-distance to the South Shore Train station. Very close to the downtown Miller section. AS IS WHERE IS

7. 2024-04-04
   status Pending 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   859 Fayette Street, is a 4 bedroom 2 bath. Within walking-distance to the South Shore Train station. Very close to the downtown Miller section. AS IS WHERE IS

8. 2024-03-13
   price $29,000 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   859 Fayette Street, is a 4 bedroom 2 bath. Within walking-distance to the South Shore Train station. Very close to the downtown Miller section. AS IS WHERE IS

9. 2024-01-18
   listed $30,000 Active 158-char remark

   Show marketing remark (158 chars)

   859 Fayette Street, is a 4 bedroom 2 bath. Within walking-distance to the South Shore Train station. Very close to the downtown Miller section. AS IS WHERE IS

10. 2024-01-13
    historical
11. 2023-11-09
    status Active
12. 2023-10-21
    historical Active Under Contract
13. 2023-10-09
    listed $30,000 Active
14. 2023-10-09
    historical
15. 2023-07-25
    status Active
16. 2023-07-25
    price $33,000
17. 2023-04-20
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2023-03-15
    listed $30,000 Active
19. 2009-05-13
    historical
20. 2009-02-12
    listed $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $421 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $971 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$550/yr (+$46/mo · 130.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$421
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $492
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$118
• After-tax cash flow: $3,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 10,929
• Household income: $45,991
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 656.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 18% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.41%
• Current HPI: 294.0935
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+752.4% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $179,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $199,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-05 Listed $224,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-15 Sold (MLS) $20,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-04 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $29,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-18 Listed $30,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-13 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-09 Relisted — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-21 Contingent — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-09 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-09 Listed $30,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-25 Relisted — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-25 Price Changed $33,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-20 Contingent — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-15 Listed $30,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-13 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-02-12 Listed $21,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-15.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $421 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.