854 Route 31 · Macedon, NY 14502

$299,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,289 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1960 0.75 ac lot Est $287k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• ARV discount +5.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Same owner since 1971! Now it's time for someone new to enjoy this home! Deep back yard that backs up to a residential neighborhood. Inside you will see a spacious updated kitchen with island and quartz countertops and appliances included. Large Living Room with new wall to wall carpeting with hardwood under. The bedrooms are all good size. One with hardwood floors and two with wall to wall carpeting with hardwood under. There is a finished basement with Rec Room and another room. Great for crafts or office. There is an egress door so it could serve as a 4th bedroom. Laundry set up with washer and dryer included. Walk out to a rear patio area. Large two car garage garage with overhead door opener. 200 amp electric wired for generator bypass. A great opportunity awaits! Boiler gas heat and a central a/c system. * * Delayed negotiation. Offers to be reviewed by seller Monday, 6/30/25.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• New egress window
• Walkout to patio

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• NEW EGRESS WINDOW
• WALKOUT TO PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; Driveway parking; Additional storage in garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected with circuit breakers; Public water connected; Septic tank sewer; Cable availability
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Vinyl siding exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding construction; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation; Existing (previously built) structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Patio; Shed(s) and additional storage; Irregular-shaped lot; Main thoroughfare frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Kitchen island; Pantry; Eat-in space; Solid surface countertops
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Additional bedroom in basement (convertible)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood; Resilient flooring; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating with forced air and baseboard options; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Kitchen island; Pantry; Solid surface counters; Window treatments; Drapes; Thermal windows; Convertible bedroom; Workshop
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer setup in basement; Gas water heater; Sump pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($388/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (9.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#377 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Palmyra-Macedon Central School District (town): math 41% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #443 of 590 in NY (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palmyra-Macedon Primary School (440 students, 37% FRL); Palmyra-Macedon Middle School (math 27% / reading 41%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 367 students, 46% FRL); Palmyra-Macedon Senior High School (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #19 of 1,100 statewide, top 4%, 605 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palmyra-Macedon Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $273,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.46%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,447
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
854 State Route 31	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,289 (0%)	10mo	$287,000	$223	91
1344 Willowdale Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,324 (+3%)	12mo	$278,000	$210	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-46,464
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-37,512
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14502

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,730 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$427 /mo · $5,120/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,689

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $202	-5% $117	+0% $32	+5% $-53	+10% $-137
Rent	-10% $-183	-5% $-76	+0% $32	+5% $140	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $109	base $32	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1155 Marina Pkwy Macedon, NY	2.0	2.0	1136	$2,730	$2.40	13d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $299,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,120 · $427/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,120 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$5,120
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,621
• − Management: −$2,621
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$4,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $1,498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmyra-Macedon Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622380
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,190
• Composite: 39.65/100
• National rank: #3915
• State rank: #443 of 590 in NY

Livability — Macedon

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #377
• US rank: #6461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,515

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.25%
• Current HPI: 242.5682
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $299,900 UNYREIS
• 2025-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $287,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-13 Sold (MLS) $287,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-06-30 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $200,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,120 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.