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401 American Elm Dr
D Composite 44.62
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +11.9/15.0
  • Appreciation +10.0/10.0
  • Cash flow +6.8/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +3.3/10.0
  • Livability +3.2/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.0/10.0
  • DSCR +1.0/10.0

$265,990

401 American Elm Dr · Nevada, TX 75173
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,399 sqft · SingleFamily · 214 Days on market
Built 2026 Good condition 7,405 sqft lot Garage $190/sqft · 10% below area Est $295k · 10% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

New! Super cute single story floor plan! Three bedrooms, two full baths, open floor plan with covered patio. Home includes, island kitchen, granite counters throughout, LED lighting, full sprinkler system, professionally engineered post tension foundation, and much more! Waverly Estates is a new D. R. Horton community in Josephine. The community is conveniently located just minutes from Interstate 30, providing easy access to Rockwall and the DFW Metroplex. Waverly Estates offers a variety of single-family homes to choose from. If you're looking for a new home in the Josephine area, Waverly Estates is the perfect community for you.

Key facts

  • 7,405 sq ft lot
  • 3 garage spots
  • Built 2026

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $266k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-415 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (22.6% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (30.1% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $186k (30.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 63/100 on livability (#881 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: 621 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 77d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
  • Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $185,918 (30.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.70% ✗
Cap rate
4.42%
Cash-on-cash
-6.69%
DSCR
0.70
GRM
11.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$294,777
List price
$265,990
Delta
-9.77%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
508 American Elm Dr 0.04mi 3/2.0 1,399 (0%) 5mo $248,490 $178 94
406 Saddle Blanket Dr 0.30mi 3/2.0 1,404 (+0%) 5mo $251,010 $179 82
410 Saddle Blanket Dr 0.30mi 3/2.0 1,253 (-10%) 4mo $247,990 $198 65
403 Saddle Blanket Dr 0.33mi 3/2.0 1,253 (-10%) 4mo $227,990 $182 64
1201 Bristlecone Dr 0.37mi 3/2.0 1,253 (-10%) 2mo $285,990 $228 64
501 Saddle Blanket Dr 0.34mi 3/2.0 1,253 (-10%) 4mo $231,940 $185 64
503 Plum Dr 0.14mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,587 (+13%) 5mo $225,000 $142 62
220 Weatherboard Dr 0.44mi 3/2.0 1,255 (-10%) 3mo $217,500 $173 60
1217 Bristlecone Dr 0.47mi 3/2.0 1,253 (-10%) 2mo $230,990 $184 59
1302 Breezy Oak Dr 0.50mi 3/2.0 1,253 (-10%) 1mo $232,990 $186 58
802 Rustic Way 0.57mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,577 (+13%) 3mo $232,500 $147 44
308 Saw Mill Rd 0.64mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,577 (+13%) 2mo $239,999 $152 42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
19.6%
Equity multiple
2.59×
Total profit
$118,462
Equity at exit
$239,625
10-year hold
IRR
18.0%
Equity multiple
5.96×
Total profit
$369,770
Equity at exit
$516,760

Cash invested: $74,477 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
53 active · 22 under contract
Months of supply
15.9 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$255,015 ($172/sqft)
Median days on market
125 d
This list price
62% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+22.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75173

Home prices YoY
3.1%
Active inventory
621
Price-to-rent
11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,859 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,395
Tax est. 1.5%
−$332 /mo · $3,990/yr
Insurance
−$111
HOA
−$46
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$390
Net cashflow
$-415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,385
Max offer price $205,874
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-232 -5% $-324 +0% $-415 +5% $-507 +10% $-599
Rent -10% $-562 -5% $-489 +0% $-415 +5% $-342 +10% $-269
Rate -1.0pp $-281 -0.5pp $-348 base $-415 +0.5pp $-484 +1.0pp $-554

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$66,498
Closing costs
$7,980
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
410 White WIllow Dr Royse City, TX 4.0 2.0 1872 $1,895 $1.01 16d 1 0.09mi
319 Plum Dr Nevada, TX 4.0 2.0 1587 $1,800 $1.13 85d 1 0.14mi
313 Plum Dr Josephine, TX 3.0 2.0 1820 $1,581 $0.87 7d 1 0.15mi
305 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX 4.0 2.5 1700 $1,410 $0.83 3d 1 0.25mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Nevada, TX 4.0 2.0 1824 $2,095 $1.15 113d 1 0.26mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX 4.0 2.0 1824 $2,095 $1.15 49d 1 0.26mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX 4.0 2.0 1824 $1,750 $0.96 10d 1 0.26mi
503 Hawthorn Dr Josephine, TX 4.0 2.0 1824 $1,750 $0.96 31d 1 0.26mi
400 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX 4.0 2.0 1655 $1,775 $1.07 3d 1 0.28mi
400 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX 4.0 2.0 1655 $1,795 $1.08 23d 1 0.28mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX 4.0 2.0 1649 $1,799 $1.09 101d 1 0.30mi
504 Saddle Blanket Dr Nevada, TX 4.0 2.0 1649 $1,949 $1.18 156d 1 0.30mi
214 Crooked Field Dr Royse City, TX 3.0 2.0 1398 $1,900 $1.36 165d 1 0.36mi
403 Silver Birch Dr Nevada, TX 4.0 2.0 1629 $2,000 $1.23 13d 1 0.42mi
211 Wrought Iron Dr Nevada, TX 3.0 2.0 1398 $1,900 $1.36 23d 1 0.51mi
819 Rustic Way Royse City, TX 4.0 2.0 1796 $2,000 $1.11 124d 1 0.53mi
602 East St Josephine, TX 3.0 2.0 1841 $1,950 $1.06 65d 1 0.59mi
902 Lexington Ln Josephine, TX 3.0 2.0 1636 $1,700 $1.04 9d 1 0.59mi
833 Lexington Ln Josephine, TX 3.0 2.0 1468 $1,700 $1.16 9d 1 0.60mi
802 Turnbuckle Ct Royse City, TX 4.0 2.0 1577 $1,849 $1.17 184d 1 0.62mi
304 Patina St Josephine, TX 3.0 2.0 1533 $2,150 $1.40 10d 1 0.66mi
401 Silo Cir Royse City, TX 4.0 2.0 1568 $1,900 $1.21 10d 1 0.67mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX 4.0 2.0 1708 $2,050 $1.20 10d 1 0.75mi
801 Meadow Creek Ln Josephine, TX 4.0 2.0 1757 $2,500 $1.42 145d 1 0.75mi
722 Windmill St Josephine, TX 4.0 2.0 1568 $1,750 $1.12 77d 1 0.75mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX 4.0 2.0 1843 $2,000 $1.09 109d 1 0.77mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX 4.0 2.0 1843 $2,100 $1.14 140d 1 0.77mi
800 Windmill St Josephine, TX 4.0 2.0 1843 $2,100 $1.14 148d 1 0.77mi
306 E Cook St Josephine, TX 3.0 2.0 1817 $2,100 $1.16 134d 1 0.79mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX 4.0 2.0 1843 $1,895 $1.03 53d 1 0.80mi
1304 Lowhill Dr Royse City, TX 4.0 2.0 1843 $1,895 $1.03 10d 1 0.80mi
414 Main St Josephine, TX 3.0 2.0 1720 $1,500 $0.87 83d 1 0.83mi
1004 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX 4.0 2.0 1875 $1,850 $0.99 153d 1 0.83mi
209 N Greenville St Josephine, TX 3.0 1.5 1196 $1,600 $1.34 130d 1 0.83mi
406 Knapsack Ln Royse City, TX 4.0 2.0 1870 $1,856 $0.99 104d 1 0.83mi
1007 Cotton Gin Ct Royse City, TX 3.0 2.0 1611 $2,050 $1.27 184d 1 0.85mi
511 Pine Hollow Way Josephine, TX 3.0 2.0 1448 $2,100 $1.45 0d 1 0.86mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX 4.0 2.0 1870 $1,995 $1.07 48d 1 0.94mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX 4.0 2.0 1870 $1,995 $1.07 99d 1 0.94mi
904 Saddle Horn Way Royse City, TX 4.0 2.0 1870 $1,995 $1.07 104d 1 0.94mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Builder special listing conditionsPossession at closing/funding or upon completion
Financial info
Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA and VA financing
HOA & community
Mandatory associationSemi-annual HOA feeHOA fee includes full use of facilities

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage3 covered/garage parking spaces
Security
Smoke detectorsCarbon monoxide detectors
Utilities
City waterCity sewerProperty in a municipal utility districtEnergy-efficient features including upgraded attic insulation, insulation, efficient HVAC, efficient lighting, thermostat, and efficient windows
Home design
Single family residenceOne storyNew construction completed in 2026Not attached to another propertySubdivision: Waverly Estates
Construction
Composition roofSlab foundationNew construction
Exterior features
Wood fencingLot less than 0.5 acre

Interior

Kitchen
Granite countersKitchen islandBreakfast barBuilt-in cabinetsEat-in kitchenPantryWater line to refrigeratorDishwasherDisposalElectric rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms
Primary bedroom with ensuite bath and walk-in closet (Level 1)Two additional bedrooms (Level 1) with split-bedroom layout
Flooring
CarpetLaminate
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (natural gas)Central air (electric)
Interior features
Open floorplanDecorative lightingEat-in kitchenKitchen islandPantryGranite countersHigh speed internet availableCable TV available
Laundry & utility
Washer/dryer hookups (utility details not specified)

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-11-08
    days on market $265,990 Active 214 DOM
  2. 2026-11-07
    days on market $265,990 Active 213 DOM
  3. 2026-11-06
    days on market $265,990 Active 212 DOM
  4. 2026-11-05
    days on market $265,990 Active 211 DOM
  5. 2026-11-04
    days on market $265,990 Active 210 DOM
  6. 2026-11-02
    days on market $265,990 Active 208 DOM
  7. 2026-11-01
    days on market $265,990 Active 207 DOM
  8. 2026-10-31
    days on market $265,990 Active 206 DOM
  9. 2026-10-30
    days on market $265,990 Active 205 DOM
  10. 2026-10-29
    pricedays on market $265,990 Active 204 DOM
  11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $270,990 Active 203 DOM
  12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $270,990 Active 202 DOM
  13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $270,990 Active 201 DOM
  14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $270,990 Active 200 DOM
  15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $270,990 Active 199 DOM
  16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $270,990 Active 198 DOM
  17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $270,990 Active 197 DOM
  18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $270,990 Active 196 DOM
  19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $270,990 Active 195 DOM
  20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $270,990 Active 194 DOM
  21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $270,990 Active 193 DOM
  22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $270,990 Active 192 DOM
  23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $270,990 Active 191 DOM
  24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $270,990 Active 190 DOM
  25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $270,990 Active 189 DOM
  26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $270,990 Active 188 DOM
  27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $270,990 Active 187 DOM
  28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $270,990 Active 186 DOM
  29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $270,990 Active 185 DOM
  30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $270,990 Active 184 DOM
  31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $270,990 Active 183 DOM
  32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $270,990 Active 182 DOM
  33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $270,990 Active 181 DOM
  34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $270,990 Active 180 DOM
  35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $270,990 Active 179 DOM
  36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $270,990 Active 178 DOM
  37. 2026-10-03
    price $270,990 Active 177 DOM
  38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $270,490 Active 177 DOM
  39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $270,490 Active 176 DOM
  40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $270,490 Active 175 DOM
  41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $270,490 Active 174 DOM
  42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $270,490 Active 173 DOM
  43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $270,490 Active 172 DOM
  44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $270,490 Active 171 DOM
  45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $270,490 Active 170 DOM
  46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $270,490 Active 169 DOM
  47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $270,490 Active 168 DOM
  48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $270,490 Active 167 DOM
  49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $270,490 Active 166 DOM
  50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $270,490 Active 165 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
  • 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$22,310
− Mortgage interest
−$14,900
− Property taxes
−$3,990
− Insurance
−$1,330
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,785
− Management
−$1,785
− HOA
−$552
− Depreciation
−$7,738
Taxable loss
−$9,769
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,344
After-tax cash flow
$-2,641/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Waverly Estates is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and modern amenities.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
  • Both Add a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities ↑
F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Leland E Edge Middle F TX #1,056/1,662 Nat'l #8,861/14,009 High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Community ISD
NCES district ID
4814850
Math proficiency
30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency
38% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income
$71,841
Composite
31.58/100
National rank
#5951
State rank
#479 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 63/100

Livability — Nevada

Score
63/100
State rank
#881
US rank
#15880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Collin · 1,210,074 people
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP)
9,284
Household income
$100,373
Rent vs Own
6.7% rent · 93.3% own
Severe rent burden
7% of renters

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,210,074 people
By 2030
1,358,201 · +12.2%
By 2040
1,654,061 · +36.7%
By 2050
1,937,359 · +60.1%
By 2075
2,567,039 · +112.1%
By 2100
2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Majority White (65%)
Race & ethnicity
White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 26%
Languages at home
74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

2024 margin
R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

-3.6% since first listed
4 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-30 Price Changed $268,490 NTREIS
  • 2026-06-09 Price Changed $265,490 NTREIS
  • 2026-04-22 Price Changed $268,490 NTREIS
  • 2026-04-08 Listed $278,490 NTREIS

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…