613 Charing Cross Ct · Lake Mary, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 1 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Cash flow +11.1/30.0
- Schools +5.1/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- 1% rule +3.5/10.0
- DSCR +3.2/10.0
- Rent growth +2.8/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$305,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Under contract-accepting backup offers. Needs TLC. House was cleaned out. Property is being sold as is. Age of big ticket items unknown. * * * This is a limited-service listing - Please see realtor remarks for showing instructions. * * *
Key facts
- 7,278 sq ft lot
- 2 garage spots
- Built 1987
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Lot about 0.17 acres (approximately 0.17 acre / 676 sq meters)
- HOA & community: Wynnwood and The Crossings Master HOA; Monthly HOA fee of $39 (required); Total annual fees $468; Pets not allowed
Exterior
- Parking: Attached 2-car garage
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Other utilities
- Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition; Two-story home; Faces west; Part of a planned unit development
- Construction: Other construction materials; Other roof; Other foundation details; Building area reported as 2,254 total square feet
- Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access
Interior
- Kitchen: Other appliances
- Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
- Flooring: Other flooring
- Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling: Other heating; Other cooling
- Interior features: Other interior features
- Laundry & utility: Other laundry features
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (7.1% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (14.9% below list).
- Recommended offer: $259k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Lake Mary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 80/100 on livability (#128 in FL, #1,923 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living D-.
- Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($300k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- Current owner paid $60k; list at $305k implies a 408% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.85% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.81%
- Cash-on-cash
- -1.72%
- DSCR
- 0.92
- GRM
- 9.8
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $424,316
- Comps found
- 12
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 526 Whittingham Pl | 0.22mi | 3/2.5 | 1,772 (+2%) | 2mo | $425,000 | $240 | 83 |
| 499 Wexdon Ct | 0.32mi | 3/2.5 | 1,772 (+2%) | 1mo | $426,000 | $240 | 79 |
| 866 E Charing Cross Cir | 0.03mi | 3/2.0 | 1,506 (-13%) | 1mo | $405,000 | $269 | 75 |
| 515 Huxford Ct | 0.36mi | 4/2.5 (+1) | 1,757 (+1%) | 1mo | $525,000 | $299 | 74 |
| 464 Harvest Oak Ct | 0.46mi | 3/2.5 | 1,796 (+3%) | 1mo | $475,000 | $264 | 70 |
| 541 Starstone Dr | 0.42mi | 3/2.0 | 1,860 (+7%) | 0mo | $430,000 | $231 | 68 |
| 608 Birgham Pl | 0.29mi | 3/2.0 | 1,556 (-10%) | 1mo | $385,000 | $247 | 68 |
| 562 Hassocks Loop | 0.41mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,858 (+7%) | 1mo | $395,000 | $213 | 63 |
| 637 Starstone Dr | 0.44mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,850 (+6%) | 1mo | $475,000 | $257 | 63 |
| 705 Silversmith Cir | 0.47mi | 3/2.0 | 1,890 (+9%) | 1mo | $412,000 | $218 | 62 |
| 563 W Springtree Way | 0.67mi | 3/2.0 | 1,991 (+14%) | 2mo | $485,000 | $244 | 42 |
| 533 Remington Oak Dr | 0.62mi | 2/2.0 (-1) | 1,494 (-14%) | 2mo | $335,000 | $224 | 41 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -21.4%
- Equity multiple
- 0.27×
- Total profit
- $-62,247
- Equity at exit
- $45,476
- IRR
- -20.7%
- Equity multiple
- 0.02×
- Total profit
- $-84,088
- Equity at exit
- $26,371
Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 32746
- Home prices YoY
- -21.9%
- Rents YoY
- 1.0%
- Active inventory
- 317
- Price-to-rent
- 9.8×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,595 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,599
- Tax from tax record
- −$407 /mo · $4,880/yr
- Insurance
- −$127
- HOA
- −$39
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$545
- Net cashflow
- $-122
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $76,250
- Closing costs
- $9,150
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 31 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 650 Whittingham Pl Lake Mary, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1640 | $3,100 | $1.89 | 11d | 1 | 0.05mi |
| 901 Beresford Way Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1389 | $2,495 | $1.80 | 12d | 1 | 0.14mi |
| 542 Queensbridge Dr Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1408 | $2,395 | $1.70 | 24d | 1 | 0.22mi |
| 726 Birgham Pl Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1518 | $1,995 | $1.31 | 14d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 797 Minerva Ln Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1518 | $2,345 | $1.54 | 3d | 1 | 0.28mi |
| 745 Silverwood Dr Lake Mary, FL | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2112 | $3,650 | $1.73 | 24d | 1 | 0.29mi |
| 600 Birgham Pl Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1544 | $2,490 | $1.61 | 5d | 1 | 0.32mi |
| 2520 Grassy Point Dr Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1103 | $1,800 | $1.63 | 24d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 601 Tomlinson Ter Lake Mary, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2164 | $2,700 | $1.25 | 24d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 787 Tomlinson Ter Lake Mary, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1878 | $2,699 | $1.44 | 17d | 1 | 0.44mi |
| 420 Sun Lake Cir Lake Mary, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 949 | $2,290 | $2.41 | 2d | 17 | 0.62mi |
| 240 Donegal Ave Lake Mary, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1778 | $2,661 | $1.50 | 3d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 2233 Grand Tree Ct Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1781 | $2,595 | $1.46 | 2d | 1 | 0.71mi |
| 625 Remington Oak Dr Lake Mary, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1108 | $2,167 | $1.96 | 2d | 1 | 0.75mi |
| 356 Amethyst Ct Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1666 | $1,200 | $0.72 | 12d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 3521 Moss Pointe Pl Lake Mary, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1956 | $2,800 | $1.43 | 5d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 296 Morning Glory Dr Lake Mary, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1553 | $2,445 | $1.57 | 2d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 780 Creekwater Ter Lake Mary, FL | 1.0–3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 957 | $1,930 | $2.02 | 24d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 3537 Moss Pointe Pl Lake Mary, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2142 | $3,070 | $1.43 | 24d | 1 | 1.01mi |
| 1651 Smokey Oak Way Longwood, FL | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1293 | $1,950 | $1.51 | 24d | 1 | 1.06mi |
| 1000 Regal Pointe Ter Lake Mary, FL | 1.0–4.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1002 | $2,190 | $2.18 | 2d | 21 | 1.18mi |
| 937 Birmingham Ct Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1178 | $2,050 | $1.74 | 24d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 1321 Myrtle Dr Longwood, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2054 | $2,695 | $1.31 | 24d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 1640 Overlook Rd Longwood, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1750 | $2,475 | $1.41 | 24d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 1713 Pine Bay Dr Lake Mary, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2142 | $2,850 | $1.33 | 24d | 1 | 1.33mi |
| 1709 Pine Bay Dr Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1413 | $2,300 | $1.63 | 21d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 474 Wishbone Ln Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1733 | $2,750 | $1.59 | 24d | 1 | 1.43mi |
| 1011 Lychee Ct Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1612 | $2,800 | $1.74 | 5d | 1 | 1.44mi |
| 191 Villa Di Este Ter #213 Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1731 | $2,450 | $1.42 | 21d | 1 | 1.48mi |
| 828 Shell Ln Longwood, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1412 | $2,275 | $1.61 | 24d | 1 | 1.49mi |
| 252 Wheelhouse Ln Lake Mary, FL | 3.0 | 1.0–2.0 | 1043 | $3,237 | $3.10 | 1d | 12 | 1.49mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $39 · $468/yr
Listing history 8 events
-
2026-06-02remarks 241-char remark
-
2026-06-02status $305,000 Pending 18 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $305,000 Active 18 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $305,000 Active 17 DOM
-
2026-05-14$305,000 Active
-
2025-11-04soldstatus $60,000
-
1990-02-01soldstatus $46,500
-
1987-06-01soldstatus $84,700
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $4,880 · $407/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $4,880 · $407/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $31,139
- − Mortgage interest
- −$17,085
- − Property taxes
- −$4,880
- − Insurance
- −$1,525
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,491
- − Management
- −$2,491
- − HOA
- −$468
- − Depreciation
- −$8,873
- Taxable loss
- −$6,673
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,602
- After-tax cash flow
- $135/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Seminole
- NCES district ID
- 1201710
- Math proficiency
- 57% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 61% ▼ -1.00%
- Median HH income
- $58,478
- Composite
- 51.05/100
- National rank
- #1769
- State rank
- #13 of 73 in FL
Livability — Lake Mary
- Score
- 80/100
- State rank
- #128
- US rank
- #1923
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Seminole County · 436,154 people
- City population
- 46,684
- Metro
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 46,684
- Household income
- $104,775
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1929.0
Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 515,494 people
- By 2030
- 545,713 · +5.9%
- By 2040
- 598,068 · +16.0%
- By 2050
- 640,663 · +24.3%
- By 2075
- 724,461 · +40.5%
- By 2100
- 755,530 · +46.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 64% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 7%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
- Languages at home
- 77% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Seminole
- 2024 margin
- Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -77.09%
- Current HPI
- 274.7765
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.00%
- Metro
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
+260.1% since first listed4 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-14 Listed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2025-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
- 1990-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
- 1987-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $84,700 Public Records
Property tax history
+11.2%/yrLatest (2025): $4,880 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…