Four Seasons 188 Northtowne Meadows Plan · Toledo, OH 48133

$59,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 70 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy life to the fullest at Northtowne Meadows. Make this quaint and scenic manufactured community the place you call home. Our 2 and 3 bedroom homes are fully customizable and come with core features like wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliances packages, kitchen islands, entertainment centers, primaryr suites, and more. At Northtowne Meadows, we make high-quality luxury living a reality at an affordable price! Northtowne Meadows is located in Erie, Michigan, near the Michigan/Ohio border, with Toledo just five miles away. Our community is also close to the Great Lake Erie, making beautiful and scenic lakeside parks and beaches a quick drive away. Northtowne Meadows offers residen

Key facts

• Community center
• Kitchen islands
• Primary suites

Tags

• MANUFACTURED COMMUNITY
• WOOD KITCHEN CABINETS
• KITCHEN ISLANDS
• ENTERTAINMENT CENTERS
• PRIMARY SUITES
• COMMUNITY CENTER

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $603 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.4% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Bedford Public Schools (suburban): math 33% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #150 of 540 in MI (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $56,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.16%
• DSCR: 2.92
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $28,729
• Equity at exit: $8,931

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.45×
• Total profit: $74,563
• Equity at exit: $5,179

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $603

Break-even live

Break-even rent $524

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6255 S Telegraph Erie, MI	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,288	$1.09	14d	3	0.10mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $59,900 Active 70 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,450
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,236
• − Management: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $6,682
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,604
• After-tax cash flow: $5,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bedford Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2604470
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $63,784
• Composite: 38.22/100
• National rank: #4252
• State rank: #150 of 540 in MI

Livability — Toledo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #645
• US rank: #11442

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe · 13,010 people
• City population: 280,811
• Metro: Monroe, MI
• Population (ZIP): 6,711
• Household income: $65,867
• Rent vs Own: 8.5% rent · 91.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 33.5

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,439 people
• By 2030: 140,033 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 128,408 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 115,024 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 87,273 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 63,110 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.7% · R 62.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.1 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.33%
• Current HPI: 152.4502
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B