16634 Meadowcroft St · Conroe, TX 77316

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 151 Days on market

Built 2015 2,100 sqft lot $216/sqft · 38% above area Est $69k · 38% over $24/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to create their dream home. Ideal fixer-upper or potential rental property with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Partially constructed residence allows for customization. Not in a flood zone, Property being sold As-Is.

Key facts

• Not in a flood zone
• Sold as-is
• 2,100 sq ft lot

Tags

• POTENTIAL RENTAL PROPERTY
• NOT IN A FLOOD ZONE
• SOLD AS-IS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.20%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,000
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 37.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.51×
• Total profit: $13,492
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $38,853
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,539 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,677/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $888

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $568	-5% $541	+0% $514	+5% $487	+10% $461
Rent	-10% $393	-5% $454	+0% $514	+5% $575	+10% $636
Rate	-1.0pp $562	-0.5pp $539	base $514	+0.5pp $490	+1.0pp $465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 137 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    price $95,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to create their dream home. Ideal fixer-upper or potential rental property with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Partially constructed residence allows for customization. Not in a flood zone, Property being sold As-Is.

17. 2026-01-29
    price $123,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to create their dream home. Ideal fixer-upper or potential rental property with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Partially constructed residence allows for customization. Not in a flood zone, Property being sold As-Is.

18. 2026-01-20
    listed $130,000 Active 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to create their dream home. Ideal fixer-upper or potential rental property with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Partially constructed residence allows for customization. Not in a flood zone, Property being sold As-Is.

19. 2023-03-14
    soldstatus Sold 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Own your own home across from Lake Conroe at an affordable price! It's located in the wonderful Historic Montgomery and near shopping and restaurants. The neighborhood has new construction homes going up all over increasing property values! INVESTORS: There are 4 additional properties in the neighborhood that can also be purchased individually or as a bundle.

20. 2023-03-14
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Own your own home across from Lake Conroe at an affordable price! It's located in the wonderful Historic Montgomery and near shopping and restaurants. The neighborhood has new construction homes going up all over increasing property values! INVESTORS: There are 4 additional properties in the neighborhood that can also be purchased individually or as a bundle.

21. 2023-03-06
    status Pending 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Own your own home across from Lake Conroe at an affordable price! It's located in the wonderful Historic Montgomery and near shopping and restaurants. The neighborhood has new construction homes going up all over increasing property values! INVESTORS: There are 4 additional properties in the neighborhood that can also be purchased individually or as a bundle.

22. 2022-11-18
    listed $54,000 Active 361-char remark

    Show marketing remark (361 chars)

    Own your own home across from Lake Conroe at an affordable price! It's located in the wonderful Historic Montgomery and near shopping and restaurants. The neighborhood has new construction homes going up all over increasing property values! INVESTORS: There are 4 additional properties in the neighborhood that can also be purchased individually or as a bundle.

23. 2022-11-04
    historical
24. 2022-11-04
    listed $54,000 Active
25. 2021-04-13
    historical
26. 2021-04-12
    listed $65,000 Active
27. 2019-08-20
    listed $50,000 Active
28. 2019-08-20
    historical
29. 1995-10-01
    soldstatus
30. 1988-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,677 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,738 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$62/yr (+$5/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,469
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,677
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,478
• − Management: −$1,478
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $4,989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,197
• After-tax cash flow: $4,975/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+90.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $123,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-14 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-03-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-11-18 Listed $54,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-04 Listed $54,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-04-12 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-08-20 Listed $50,000 HARMLS
• 1995-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,677 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.