35616 Arrowhead Ln · Squaw Valley, CA 93675

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured public records · 484 Days on market

Built 1990 5.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A million-dollar view plus a serene getaway in the hills of Squaw Valley! The home is perfect for the individual who wants quiet space and loves the mountainous environment. There is a small city about 15-20 minutes from this property for food, gas, small town shopping. The owner has priced the property to sell as is with the new discounted price. The drive up is winding, and mountainous, to get to the property the road does have some potholes, so go slow, but just about any vehicle can get up the hill if you are careful. The home itself is spacious in size, and there is some floor work that needs to be done, but overall, it's in great shape. This home is not on a permanent foundation. This property would be perfect for anyone looking for a retreat getaway.

Key facts

• 5.72 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 484 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $692 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.7% in Squaw Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#583 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Kings Canyon Joint Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #288 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 484 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $21k; list at $170k implies a 710% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 484 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.43%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,088
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
36149 George Smith Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	21mo	$77,500	$58	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $16,440
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $70,793
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93675

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,299

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $788	-5% $740	+0% $692	+5% $643	+10% $595
Rent	-10% $520	-5% $606	+0% $692	+5% $777	+10% $863
Rate	-1.0pp $777	-0.5pp $735	base $692	+0.5pp $648	+1.0pp $603

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 484 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 483 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 482 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 481 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 479 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 478 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 476 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 475 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 474 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $170,000 Active 473 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 469 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 468 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 467 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 466 DOM
15. 2025-10-16
    price $179,000 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    A million-dollar view plus a serene getaway in the hills of Squaw Valley! The home is perfect for the individual who wants quiet space and loves the mountainous environment. There is a small city about 15-20 minutes from this property for food, gas, small town shopping. The owner has priced the property to sell as is with the new discounted price. The drive up is winding, and mountainous, to get to the property the road does have some potholes, so go slow, but just about any vehicle can get up the hill if you are careful. The home itself is spacious in size, and there is some floor work that needs to be done, but overall, it's in great shape. This home is not on a permanent foundation. This property would be perfect for anyone looking for a retreat getaway.

16. 2025-02-20
    listed $195,000 Active 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    A million-dollar view plus a serene getaway in the hills of Squaw Valley! The home is perfect for the individual who wants quiet space and loves the mountainous environment. There is a small city about 15-20 minutes from this property for food, gas, small town shopping. The owner has priced the property to sell as is with the new discounted price. The drive up is winding, and mountainous, to get to the property the road does have some potholes, so go slow, but just about any vehicle can get up the hill if you are careful. The home itself is spacious in size, and there is some floor work that needs to be done, but overall, it's in great shape. This home is not on a permanent foundation. This property would be perfect for anyone looking for a retreat getaway.

17. 2025-02-19
    historical $195,000 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    A million-dollar view plus a serene getaway in the hills of Squaw Valley! The home is perfect for the individual who wants quiet space and loves the mountainous environment. There is a small city about 15-20 minutes from this property for food, gas, small town shopping. The owner has priced the property to sell as is with the new discounted price. The drive up is winding, and mountainous, to get to the property the road does have some potholes, so go slow, but just about any vehicle can get up the hill if you are careful. The home itself is spacious in size, and there is some floor work that needs to be done, but overall, it's in great shape. This home is not on a permanent foundation. This property would be perfect for anyone looking for a retreat getaway.

18. 1982-03-18
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$528/yr (+$44/mo · 69.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 56 unhealthy d/yr today · 60 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,089
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,087
• − Management: −$2,087
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $5,833
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,400
• After-tax cash flow: $6,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kings Canyon Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0619700
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,406
• Composite: 29.14/100
• National rank: #6582
• State rank: #288 of 517 in CA

Livability — Squaw Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #18982

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Squaw Valley, CA
• City population: 3,739
• Population (ZIP): 3,739

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 39% Asian 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -7.56%
• Current HPI: 343.5472
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+752.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-20 Listed $195,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-19 Coming Soon $195,000 CRMLS
• 1982-03-18 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.