2445 Irwinton Rd · Hardwick, GA 31061

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 301 Days on market

Built 1959 0.86 ac lot $95/sqft · 24% above area Est $233k · 32% under ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

There are 2 homes here. The sqft advertised is the total of both. The brick home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1672 sqft. The 2-story is a 1-bedroom, 1.5 bath, and 1360 sqft. These are fixer-uppers and would make great rentals or, of course, your own home with a mother-in-law home as well. Many options here.

Key facts

• 0.86 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $13 ($157/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#102 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (town): math 13% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #152 of 174 in GA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 375 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 202 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,401
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: -31.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
138 Deacon J Simmons Rd SW	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,548 (-7%)	3mo	$31,000	$20	45
144 Thomas St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,462 (-13%)	8mo	$150,000	$103	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-23,418
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,974
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31061

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,402 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,329/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,385

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
399 Allen Memorial Dr SW Milledgeville, GA	2.0	1.0	1209	$1,300	$1.08	43d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,000 Active 301 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 299 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 298 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 297 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,000 Active 294 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 284 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 283 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 282 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,000 Active 281 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $159,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    There are 2 homes here. The sqft advertised is the total of both. The brick home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1672 sqft. The 2-story is a 1-bedroom, 1.5 bath, and 1360 sqft. These are fixer-uppers and would make great rentals or, of course, your own home with a mother-in-law home as well. Many options here.

18. 2026-05-18
    price $159,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    There are 2 homes here. The sqft advertised is the total of both. The brick home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1672 sqft. The 2-story is a 1-bedroom, 1.5 bath, and 1360 sqft. These are fixer-uppers and would make great rentals or, of course, your own home with a mother-in-law home as well. Many options here.

19. 2026-02-10
    price $199,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    There are 2 homes here. The sqft advertised is the total of both. The brick home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1672 sqft. The 2-story is a 1-bedroom, 1.5 bath, and 1360 sqft. These are fixer-uppers and would make great rentals or, of course, your own home with a mother-in-law home as well. Many options here.

20. 2026-02-10
    price $199,000 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    There are 2 homes here. The sqft advertised is the total of both. The brick home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1672 sqft. The 2-story is a 1-bedroom, 1.5 bath, and 1360 sqft. These are fixer-uppers and would make great rentals or, of course, your own home with a mother-in-law home as well. Many options here.

21. 2025-11-17
    status Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    There are 2 homes here. The sqft advertised is the total of both. The brick home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1672 sqft. The 2-story is a 1-bedroom, 1.5 bath, and 1360 sqft. These are fixer-uppers and would make great rentals or, of course, your own home with a mother-in-law home as well. Many options here.

22. 2025-11-17
    status Back On Market 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    There are 2 homes here. The sqft advertised is the total of both. The brick home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1672 sqft. The 2-story is a 1-bedroom, 1.5 bath, and 1360 sqft. These are fixer-uppers and would make great rentals or, of course, your own home with a mother-in-law home as well. Many options here.

23. 2025-11-10
    historical Active Under Contract 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    There are 2 homes here. The sqft advertised is the total of both. The brick home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1672 sqft. The 2-story is a 1-bedroom, 1.5 bath, and 1360 sqft. These are fixer-uppers and would make great rentals or, of course, your own home with a mother-in-law home as well. Many options here.

24. 2025-11-10
    status Under Contract 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    There are 2 homes here. The sqft advertised is the total of both. The brick home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1672 sqft. The 2-story is a 1-bedroom, 1.5 bath, and 1360 sqft. These are fixer-uppers and would make great rentals or, of course, your own home with a mother-in-law home as well. Many options here.

25. 2025-08-14
    listed $229,000 New 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    There are 2 homes here. The sqft advertised is the total of both. The brick home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1672 sqft. The 2-story is a 1-bedroom, 1.5 bath, and 1360 sqft. These are fixer-uppers and would make great rentals or, of course, your own home with a mother-in-law home as well. Many options here.

26. 2025-08-14
    listed $229,000 Active 308-char remark

    Show marketing remark (308 chars)

    There are 2 homes here. The sqft advertised is the total of both. The brick home has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and 1672 sqft. The 2-story is a 1-bedroom, 1.5 bath, and 1360 sqft. These are fixer-uppers and would make great rentals or, of course, your own home with a mother-in-law home as well. Many options here.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,329 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,329 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$2,329
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,345
• − Management: −$1,345
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$2,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$607
• After-tax cash flow: $764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 1300210
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,615
• Composite: 13.61/100
• National rank: #9508
• State rank: #152 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hardwick

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #8062

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hardwick, GA
• County: Baldwin County · 41,764 people
• City population: 41,764
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,764
• Household income: $54,263
• Rent vs Own: 40.6% rent · 59.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1630.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,602 people
• By 2030: 45,481 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 44,310 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 42,129 · -7.6%
• By 2075: 36,819 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 29,320 · -35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 43% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.8pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.2 2020: D+1.3 2016: D+1.7 2012: D+5.5 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.16%
• Current HPI: 241.3758
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Milledgeville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-30.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $159,000 MGMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $159,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $199,000 MGMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2025-11-17 Relisted — MGMLS
• 2025-11-17 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-11-10 Contingent — MGMLS
• 2025-11-10 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $229,000 MGMLS
• 2025-08-14 Listed $229,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,329 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.