8503 Berndale St · Houston, TX 77029

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 177 Days on market

Built 1952 6,446 sqft lot $66/sqft · 51% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 6,446 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 177 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $464 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.39%
• DSCR: 2.04
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $173,434
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -50.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1427 Teanaway Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,232 (-4%)	11mo	$239,750	$195	67
8606 Guinevere St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,238 (-4%)	2mo	$225,000	$182	63
8734 Josie St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,150 (-10%)	1mo	$159,000	$138	54
8519 Fillmore St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,278 (-0%)	22mo	$210,000	$164	51
8639 Tilgham St	0.24mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,150 (-10%)	23mo	$165,000	$143	47
8711 Othello St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,180 (-8%)	8mo	$215,000	$182	47
1718 Normandale St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (-11%)	9mo	$229,000	$200	44
8766 Flossie Mae St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,412 (+10%)	12mo	$194,750	$138	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $75,888
• Equity at exit: $76,575

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 9.42×
• Total profit: $200,354
• Equity at exit: $165,136

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77029

• Home prices YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,918/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $464

Break-even live

Break-even rent $811

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8735 Cowart St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,000	$0.88	43d	1	0.42mi
8726 Josie St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	43d	1	0.49mi
8534 Fillmore St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	965	$1,600	$1.66	43d	1	0.58mi
2203 Pearl St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,570	$1.21	14d	1	0.98mi
9701 Market St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	798	$1,309	$1.64	7d	1	1.09mi
9709 Cargill St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$2,300	$1.94	43d	1	1.23mi
9710 Tuffly St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,795	$1.41	24d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 177 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 176 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 175 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 174 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 166 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 163 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 159 DOM
12. 2025-12-23
    listed $85,000 Active
13. 2025-09-21
    historical
14. 2025-09-03
    price $80,000
15. 2025-05-21
    listed $95,000 Active
16. 2019-08-12
    soldstatus
17. 2019-08-02
    soldstatus
18. 2019-02-13
    soldstatus
19. 2019-02-08
    soldstatus
20. 2019-01-08
    historical
21. 2018-10-29
    soldstatus
22. 2018-10-10
    soldstatus
23. 2018-09-24
    listed $57,000 Active
24. 1984-05-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,918 · $160/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,918
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,343
• − Management: −$1,343
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,520
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,085
• After-tax cash flow: $4,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,154
• Household income: $48,279
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 457.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 32% Black 22% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 66%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 61%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.53%
• Current HPI: 276.1811
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+49.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-23 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Listed $95,000 HARMLS
• 2019-08-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-01-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-09-24 Listed $57,000 HARMLS
• 1984-05-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,918 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.