1593W Plan · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$344,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,593 sqft · SingleFamily · 216 Days on market

$217/sqft · at area comps Est $344k · at est. ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Abundant natural light throughout. Kitchen features center island and corner walk-in pantry. Family room features wall of windows. Primary suite includes primary bath with dual vanities, separate glass-enclosed shower and large walk-in closet. Generous closet space adds to this three-bedroom home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

Key facts

• Dining area
• Family room
• Wall of windows

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• DINING AREA
• FAMILY ROOM
• CENTER ISLAND
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• WALL OF WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-515 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (21.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (31.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $236,481 (31.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,531
• List price: $344,900
• Delta: 0.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30314 Ruby Forest Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+4%)	5mo	$324,900	$197	81
29961 Stony Forest Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,722 (+8%)	1mo	$349,900	$203	78
29929 Stony Forest Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,743 (+9%)	6mo	$413,900	$237	76
30401 Creek Valley Ct	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,722 (+8%)	6mo	$362,900	$211	74
30410 Creek Valley Ct	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,722 (+8%)	6mo	$349,900	$203	73
30414 Creek Valley Ct	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+9%)	4mo	$339,900	$195	72
29930 Stony Forest Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,736 (+9%)	3mo	$359,900	$207	71
29977 Stony Forest Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+9%)	6mo	$349,900	$201	70
30322 Ruby Forest Ct	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,743 (+9%)	6mo	$380,900	$219	68
29934 Stony Forest Dr	0.06mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,785 (+12%)	1mo	$314,900	$176	68
29973 Stony Forest Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,736 (+9%)	6mo	$349,900	$202	64
30027 Black Cherry St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,550 (-3%)	4mo	$239,900	$155	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $148,845
• Equity at exit: $310,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $452,934
• Equity at exit: $670,065

Cash invested: $96,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,365 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$431 /mo · $5,174/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,017

Max offer price $270,331

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,225
• Closing costs: $10,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30314 Ruby Forest Ct Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,595	$1.57	43d	1	0.17mi
12035 Noble Wood Village DR Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1979	$2,150	$1.09	43d	1	0.92mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $344,900 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $344,900 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $332,900 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $332,900 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $332,900 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $332,900 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $332,900 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $332,900 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $332,900 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $327,900 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $327,900 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $327,900 Active 199 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $327,900 Active 198 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $327,900 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Abundant natural light throughout. Kitchen features center island and corner walk-in pantry. Family room features wall of windows. Primary suite includes primary bath with dual vanities, separate glass-enclosed shower and large walk-in closet. Generous closet space adds to this three-bedroom home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

15. 2026-01-17
    price $324,900 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Abundant natural light throughout. Kitchen features center island and corner walk-in pantry. Family room features wall of windows. Primary suite includes primary bath with dual vanities, separate glass-enclosed shower and large walk-in closet. Generous closet space adds to this three-bedroom home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

16. 2025-11-14
    listed $341,900 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Entry leads to open kitchen, dining area and family room. Abundant natural light throughout. Kitchen features center island and corner walk-in pantry. Family room features wall of windows. Primary suite includes primary bath with dual vanities, separate glass-enclosed shower and large walk-in closet. Generous closet space adds to this three-bedroom home. Covered backyard patio. Mud room off two-car garage. Representative Images. Features and specifications may vary by community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,378
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,320
• − Property taxes: −$5,174
• − Insurance: −$1,724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,270
• − Management: −$2,270
• − Depreciation: −$10,033
• Taxable loss: −$12,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,979
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $327,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $324,900 Zillow
• 2025-11-14 Listed $341,900 Zillow