4222 Darby Dr · Falls, PA 19067

$169,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market

Built 2025 5,500 sqft lot $183/sqft · 32% above area Est $128k · 32% over ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful Pine Grove home is upgraded throughout. It has custom cabinets, counters and doors with high end hardware. All of the kitchen appliances are upgraded stainless steel with a French door fridge. The living room has a gorgeous electric fireplace with shiplap and a custom mantel and is all wired and ready for that flat screen TV. There is custom crown molding and lighting throughout the home. The front porch is Trex so it durable and will last. The home also comes with a modern custom built shed that matches the home. Set up a showing on this home today.

Key facts

• Custom cabinets
• Custom crown molding
• Electric fireplace

Tags

• CUSTOM CABINETS
• ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• CUSTOM CROWN MOLDING
• TREX FRONT PORCH
• MODERN CUSTOM BUILT SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $484 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $169k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pennsbury SD (suburban): math 46% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #67 of 539 in PA (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 168 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 663 units permitted in Bucks County in 2024 (106 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bucks County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,860 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.28%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $128,169
• List price: $169,000
• Delta: 31.86%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1047 Aldrich Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (0%)	4mo	$130,000	$141	84
1445 Old Bristol Pike #71	0.30mi	2/1.0	900 (-3%)	7mo	$59,900	$67	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $3,737
• Equity at exit: $25,198

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $44,131
• Equity at exit: $14,612

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19067

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,091 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $484

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,478

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    remarks 580-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $169,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $179,000 Active 571-char remark

    Show marketing remark (571 chars)

    This beautiful Pine Grove home is upgraded throughout. It has custom cabinets, counters and doors with high end hardware. All of the kitchen appliances are upgraded stainless steel with a French door fridge. The living room has a gorgeous electric fireplace with shiplap and a custom mantel and is all wired and ready for that flat screen TV. There is custom crown molding and lighting throughout the home. The front porch is Trex so it durable and will last. The home also comes with a modern custom built shed that matches the home. Set up a showing on this home today.

17. 2026-01-21
    historical
18. 2025-12-08
    price $179,000
19. 2025-10-21
    listed $185,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,008
• − Management: −$2,008
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $3,317
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$796
• After-tax cash flow: $5,014/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pennsbury SD
• NCES district ID: 4218840
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,495
• Composite: 52.3/100
• National rank: #1594
• State rank: #67 of 539 in PA

Livability — Falls

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Bucks County · 506,477 people
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 53,885
• Household income: $133,630
• Rent vs Own: 22.2% rent · 77.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1036.0

Population outlook (Bucks County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 630,973 people
• By 2030: 627,093 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 609,680 · -3.4%
• By 2050: 584,225 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 539,840 · -14.4%
• By 2100: 483,970 · -23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bucks

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -0.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.1 2020: D+4.4 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+1.2 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -435.62%
• Current HPI: 281.8167
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $179,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $179,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-21 Listed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2014): $267 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.