1904 Cherryvale Ct · Toms River, NJ 08755

$344,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,305 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1988 5,662 sqft lot Est $436k · 21% under $248/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional Dover Model in Desirable Greenbriar Woodlands Community. PREMIUM LOT, that BACKS TO WOODS & PRIVACY for outdoor enjoyment on NEWER BELGIAN BLOCK Patio. 2024 NEW Gas Furnace & Air Conditioning. NEW insulation in Attic with Zippered Concealment to ensure TOP EFFICIENCY for HVAC Systems. 2025 NEW Gutter Guards with Warranty for New Buyers. Added Feature is the 3 SEASON RM. Open Front Porch. Beautiful Leaded Glass Side Light on Front Door. Large Entry Foyer with Laminate Floor into the EAT-IN-KITCHEN. SPACIOUS THROUGHOUT with many Large Closets. Utility Sink in Laundry Rm. YOU WILL BE PLEASED. MAINTAINED TO PERFECTION.MOVE IN READY HOME.

Key facts

• New air conditioning
• Backs to woods
• New gas furnace

Tags

• DOVER MODEL
• GREENBRIAR WOODLANDS COMMUNITY
• BACKS TO WOODS
• NEWER BELGIAN BLOCK PATIO
• NEW GAS FURNACE
• NEW AIR CONDITIONING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-481 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (24.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (22.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (24.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; list at $345k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,860 (24.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.98%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $435,654
• List price: $344,900
• Delta: -20.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1903 New Hampshire Ave	0.05mi	2/1.0	1,294 (-1%)	12mo	$610,000	$471	82
1480 Essex Ct	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,305 (0%)	12mo	$360,000	$276	74
1393 Gleniffer Hill Rd	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,415 (+8%)	9mo	$378,750	$268	70
1504 Alpen Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,415 (+8%)	22mo	$385,000	$272	58
2150 Beltane Rd	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,418 (+9%)	20mo	$425,000	$300	51
1668 Wisteria Ct	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,412 (+8%)	4mo	$321,750	$228	49
—	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,396 (+7%)	20mo	$250,990	$180	40
1535 Silverton Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,494 (+14%)	14mo	$610,000	$408	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-86,373
• Equity at exit: $51,426

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-113,978
• Equity at exit: $29,821

Cash invested: $96,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,686 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$403 /mo · $4,837/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$248
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,296

Max offer price $259,860

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-286	-5% $-384	+0% $-481	+5% $-579	+10% $-677
Rent	-10% $-694	-5% $-587	+0% $-481	+5% $-375	+10% $-269
Rate	-1.0pp $-308	-0.5pp $-394	base $-481	+0.5pp $-571	+1.0pp $-662

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,225
• Closing costs: $10,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
610 Sophee Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.5	1164	$2,000	$1.72	44d	1	1.09mi
1305 Marshall St Lakewood, NJ	3.0	1.0	1168	$2,900	$2.48	7d	1	1.29mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	19d	1	1.36mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	22d	1	1.44mi
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1502	$2,869	$1.91	1d	25	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $248 · $2,976/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $344,900 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $344,900 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $344,900 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $344,900 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $344,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $344,900 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $344,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $344,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $344,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $344,900 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,900 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,900 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $344,900 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $344,900 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-03-08
    listed $344,900 Active 661-char remark

    Show marketing remark (661 chars)

    Exceptional Dover Model in Desirable Greenbriar Woodlands Community. PREMIUM LOT, that BACKS TO WOODS & PRIVACY for outdoor enjoyment on NEWER BELGIAN BLOCK Patio. 2024 NEW Gas Furnace & Air Conditioning. NEW insulation in Attic with Zippered Concealment to ensure TOP EFFICIENCY for HVAC Systems. 2025 NEW Gutter Guards with Warranty for New Buyers. Added Feature is the 3 SEASON RM. Open Front Porch. Beautiful Leaded Glass Side Light on Front Door. Large Entry Foyer with Laminate Floor into the EAT-IN-KITCHEN. SPACIOUS THROUGHOUT with many Large Closets. Utility Sink in Laundry Rm. YOU WILL BE PLEASED. MAINTAINED TO PERFECTION.MOVE IN READY HOME.

16. 2016-02-05
    soldstatus $182,500
17. 2016-02-01
    soldstatus $182,000 Sold 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    This Fabulous Home Is Updated and Perfect For You! Come see this ideal home in an ideal location today! You are greeted by the beautiful foyer with upgraded laminate floors. The kitchen has some nice updates that you will love and provides an eat-in area for your dinette set. The living room is extra spacious with a vaulted ceiling. The Sunroom adds extra 3 season living with views of the beautiful yard area. The backyard is colorful and private, backing to a lovely wooded area! there is a nice space between homes. The furnace and AC are newer (7 years young) with an electronic air cleaner. The roof and skylight have been replaced also just 7 years ago! The washer and dryer are also newer, and the sturdy shelves in he garage provide extra easy storage for you! This 55+ active adult community is set in a convenient location of Ocean County with easy access to the Parkway, Atlantic City, Philadelphia and our beautiful beaches! Make an appointment to see it today!

18. 2015-12-19
    historical 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    This Fabulous Home Is Updated and Perfect For You! Come see this ideal home in an ideal location today! You are greeted by the beautiful foyer with upgraded laminate floors. The kitchen has some nice updates that you will love and provides an eat-in area for your dinette set. The living room is extra spacious with a vaulted ceiling. The Sunroom adds extra 3 season living with views of the beautiful yard area. The backyard is colorful and private, backing to a lovely wooded area! there is a nice space between homes. The furnace and AC are newer (7 years young) with an electronic air cleaner. The roof and skylight have been replaced also just 7 years ago! The washer and dryer are also newer, and the sturdy shelves in he garage provide extra easy storage for you! This 55+ active adult community is set in a convenient location of Ocean County with easy access to the Parkway, Atlantic City, Philadelphia and our beautiful beaches! Make an appointment to see it today!

19. 2015-11-04
    listed $184,000 Active 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    This Fabulous Home Is Updated and Perfect For You! Come see this ideal home in an ideal location today! You are greeted by the beautiful foyer with upgraded laminate floors. The kitchen has some nice updates that you will love and provides an eat-in area for your dinette set. The living room is extra spacious with a vaulted ceiling. The Sunroom adds extra 3 season living with views of the beautiful yard area. The backyard is colorful and private, backing to a lovely wooded area! there is a nice space between homes. The furnace and AC are newer (7 years young) with an electronic air cleaner. The roof and skylight have been replaced also just 7 years ago! The washer and dryer are also newer, and the sturdy shelves in he garage provide extra easy storage for you! This 55+ active adult community is set in a convenient location of Ocean County with easy access to the Parkway, Atlantic City, Philadelphia and our beautiful beaches! Make an appointment to see it today!

20. 2008-02-07
    soldstatus $220,000
21. 1992-05-21
    soldstatus $111,999
22. 1988-09-06
    soldstatus $138,751

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,837 · $403/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,712 · $559/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,876/yr (+$156/mo · 38.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,320
• − Property taxes: −$4,837
• − Insurance: −$1,724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,579
• − Management: −$2,579
• − HOA: −$2,976
• − Depreciation: −$10,033
• Taxable loss: −$11,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,835
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,941/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+148.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Listed $344,900 MOMLS
• 2016-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $182,500 Public Records
• 2016-02-01 Sold (MLS) $182,000 MOMLS
• 2015-12-19 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2015-11-04 Listed $184,000 MOMLS
• 2008-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 1992-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $111,999 Public Records
• 1988-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $138,751 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,837 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.