1546 Jessica Blvd · Winter Haven, FL 33884

$268,490

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,880 sqft · Land · 72 Days on market

Built 2025 6,534 sqft lot $14/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 48% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This expansive two-story Columbus has a well-designed layout, featuring a first floor dedicated to shared living and entertaining. The open concept design seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining room and family room, with a patio extending the interior space outdoors. Upstairs, a spacious loft separates the three secondary bedrooms from the serene owner's suite. Completing the home is a convenient two-car garage. Peace Creek Reserve is a masterplan community of new single-family homes with a beautiful natural creek. Winter Haven is the chain of lakes city, with over 26 linked together by canal. There are lots of shops, restaurants, bike paths. Peace Creek Reserve is what you have been looki

Key facts

• Open concept design
• Natural creek
• Bike paths

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• PATIO
• SPACIOUS LOFT
• NATURAL CREEK
• BIKE PATHS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present; Pets allowed
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,670; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by ACCESS MGMT – Christie Prince; Monthly HOA fee $14 (includes escrow reserves fund and private road); Association amenities: Playground, Pool; Association approval required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 19) with garage door opener; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Cable available and connected; Fiber optics; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single family residence; New construction (completed); Two levels; East-facing entry
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Lennar Homes (Builder model: Columbus)
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Sliding doors; Paved private lot; Street lights in community; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: In-wall pest control system; Kitchen open to family room; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Thermal windows; Family room; Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $268k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-53 ($-636/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wahneta Elementary School (math 38% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,787 of 2,144 statewide, top 84%, 507 students, 69% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 680 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,719 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-49,332
• Equity at exit: $40,033

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-57,133
• Equity at exit: $23,214

Cash invested: $75,177 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33884

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 680
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,257 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,408
• Tax from tax record: −$302 /mo · $3,628/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$14
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,324

Max offer price $259,126

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $23	+0% $-53	+5% $-129	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-231	-5% $-142	+0% $-53	+5% $36	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $82	-0.5pp $15	base $-53	+0.5pp $-123	+1.0pp $-193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,122
• Closing costs: $8,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,030	$1.11	24d	1	0.08mi
2122 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1801	$2,030	$1.13	4d	1	0.08mi
2102 Chris Dr Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1824	$2,100	$1.15	15d	1	0.11mi
1993 Sarah St Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1838	$1,998	$1.09	24d	1	0.20mi
1708 Teagan Ln Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,250	$1.45	24d	1	0.21mi
4019 Penelope Ave Lake Wales, FL	4.0	2.0	1812	$1,950	$1.08	15d	1	0.23mi
368 Kayden Cv Winter Haven, FL	5.0	2.5	2112	$2,290	$1.08	24d	1	0.35mi
521 Reggie Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2093	$2,450	$1.17	4d	1	0.38mi
1116 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2174	$1,975	$0.91	20d	1	0.53mi
1116 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	3.0	2174	$1,975	$0.91	24d	1	0.53mi
693 Reggie Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1933	$2,300	$1.19	24d	1	0.55mi
1417 Austin St Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.5	1879	$2,290	$1.22	13d	1	0.59mi
748 Reggie Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1933	$2,600	$1.35	24d	1	0.62mi
1172 Tyler Rd Winter Haven, FL	4.0	2.0	1509	$2,200	$1.46	11d	1	0.64mi
1498 Austin St Bartow, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,000	$1.03	24d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $14 · $168/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-22
   soldstatus $254,999 Closed
2. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-29
   price $268,490
4. 2026-04-26
   price $273,490
5. 2026-04-24
   price $295,490
6. 2026-04-03
   status Active
7. 2026-04-03
   price $275,490
8. 2026-03-27
   historical
9. 2026-03-26
   status Active
10. 2026-03-26
    price $308,490
11. 2025-11-17
    status Pending
12. 2025-10-28
    price $303,990
13. 2025-10-16
    listed $302,990 Active
14. 2025-09-15
    soldstatus $494,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,628 · $302/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,628 · $302/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,086
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,040
• − Property taxes: −$3,628
• − Insurance: −$1,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,167
• − Management: −$2,167
• − HOA: −$168
• − Depreciation: −$7,811
• Taxable loss: −$5,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Winter Haven

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #4898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winter Haven, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 121,740
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,561
• Household income: $70,443
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 949.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.69%
• Current HPI: 260.1421
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-48.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) $254,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $268,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $273,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $295,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $275,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $308,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $303,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Listed $302,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $494,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,628 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.