499 Stonytown Rd · Flower Hill, NY 11030

$1,480,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,586 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1957 0.96 ac lot $572/sqft · 29% below area Est $2070k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Opportunity in Flower Hill, Manhasset! This spacious builder’s acre is the perfect place to create your dream home. The existing structure is ready for demolition, offering a fresh start. Located in the Port Washington School District, this property offers the potential for a legal home office (subject to permits). A fantastic chance to build a luxurious home in a prime location! Only Outside Sell for Land Value.

Key facts

• Builder's acre
• Legal home office
• Prime location

Tags

• BUILDER'S ACRE
• LEGAL HOME OFFICE
• PRIME LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1.48M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.27M (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.16M (21.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.16M (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#212 in NY, #3,270 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living F.
• Port Washington Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #69 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $90k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $80k appreciation (5.4% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$144k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.39M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,163,181 (21.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.41%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,070,304
• List price: $1,480,000
• Delta: -28.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31 Knolls Ln	0.20mi	4/3.0	2,631 (+2%)	6mo	$1,930,000	$734	83
47 Homewood Pl	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,560 (-1%)	8mo	$1,765,000	$689	72
162 Reni Rd	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,540 (-2%)	14mo	$1,799,200	$708	66
45 Crabapple Rd	0.29mi	4/3.0	2,400 (-7%)	10mo	$1,800,000	$750	66
126 Northwoods Rd	0.52mi	4/3.0	2,761 (+7%)	3mo	$2,750,000	$996	62
60 Wakefield Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,460 (-5%)	2mo	$1,425,000	$579	58
448 Abbey Rd N	0.69mi	4/3.5	2,763 (+7%)	2mo	$2,228,000	$806	53
109 Country Club Dr	0.65mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,756 (+7%)	0mo	$2,770,000	$1,005	51
22 Sunnyvale Rd	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,391 (-8%)	10mo	$1,635,000	$684	46
35 Wood Valley Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,422 (-6%)	13mo	$1,637,000	$676	45
135 Northwoods Rd	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,255 (-13%)	11mo	$2,575,135	$1,142	40
5 Tulip Ln	0.65mi	4/4.0	2,847 (+10%)	13mo	$1,515,000	$532	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $298,812
• Equity at exit: $873,172

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $954,443
• Equity at exit: $1,536,282

Cash invested: $414,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11030

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $11,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,761
• Tax from tax record: −$1,988 /mo · $23,860/yr
• Insurance: −$617
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,443
• Net cashflow: $-1,177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,122

Max offer price $1,272,049

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-339	-5% $-758	+0% $-1,177	+5% $-1,596	+10% $-2,015
Rent	-10% $-2,096	-5% $-1,637	+0% $-1,177	+5% $-718	+10% $-258
Rate	-1.0pp $-432	-0.5pp $-801	base $-1,177	+0.5pp $-1,561	+1.0pp $-1,951

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $370,000
• Closing costs: $44,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Mackey Ave Port Washington, NY	4.0	2.5	2580	$7,500	$2.91	2d	1	0.94mi
27 Pine St Port Washington, NY	4.0	4.5	3570	$14,200	$3.98	2d	1	0.98mi
106 Thayer Rd Manhasset, NY	5.0	3.0	2793	$12,000	$4.30	3d	1	1.09mi
79 Reid Ave Port Washington, NY	5.0	3.5	3092	$15,000	$4.85	11d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 428-char remark

   Show marketing remark (428 chars)

   Great Opportunity in Flower Hill, Manhasset! This spacious builder’s acre is the perfect place to create your dream home. The existing structure is ready for demolition, offering a fresh start. Located in the Port Washington School District, this property offers the potential for a legal home office (subject to permits). A fantastic chance to build a luxurious home in a prime location! Only Outside Sell for Land Value.

2. 2026-02-13
   listed $1,480,000 Active 428-char remark

   Show marketing remark (428 chars)

   Great Opportunity in Flower Hill, Manhasset! This spacious builder’s acre is the perfect place to create your dream home. The existing structure is ready for demolition, offering a fresh start. Located in the Port Washington School District, this property offers the potential for a legal home office (subject to permits). A fantastic chance to build a luxurious home in a prime location! Only Outside Sell for Land Value.

3. 2025-11-03
   soldstatus $1,350,000 Closed 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Great Opportunity in Flower Hill, Manhasset! His spacious builder’s acre is the perfect place to create your dream home. The existing structure is ready for demolition, offering a fresh start. Located in the Port Washington School District, this property offers the potential for a legal home office (subject to permits). A fantastic chance to build a luxurious home in a prime location! Only Outside Sell for Land Value.

4. 2025-11-03
   soldstatus $1,350,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Great Opportunity in Flower Hill, Manhasset! His spacious builder’s acre is the perfect place to create your dream home. The existing structure is ready for demolition, offering a fresh start. Located in the Port Washington School District, this property offers the potential for a legal home office (subject to permits). A fantastic chance to build a luxurious home in a prime location! Only Outside Sell for Land Value.

5. 2025-07-07
   soldstatus $1,350,000
6. 2025-05-06
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Great Opportunity in Flower Hill, Manhasset! His spacious builder’s acre is the perfect place to create your dream home. The existing structure is ready for demolition, offering a fresh start. Located in the Port Washington School District, this property offers the potential for a legal home office (subject to permits). A fantastic chance to build a luxurious home in a prime location! Only Outside Sell for Land Value.

7. 2025-05-06
   status Pending 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Great Opportunity in Flower Hill, Manhasset! His spacious builder’s acre is the perfect place to create your dream home. The existing structure is ready for demolition, offering a fresh start. Located in the Port Washington School District, this property offers the potential for a legal home office (subject to permits). A fantastic chance to build a luxurious home in a prime location! Only Outside Sell for Land Value.

8. 2025-03-13
   listed $1,390,000 Active 427-char remark

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Great Opportunity in Flower Hill, Manhasset! His spacious builder’s acre is the perfect place to create your dream home. The existing structure is ready for demolition, offering a fresh start. Located in the Port Washington School District, this property offers the potential for a legal home office (subject to permits). A fantastic chance to build a luxurious home in a prime location! Only Outside Sell for Land Value.

9. 2025-03-13
   listed $1,390,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (427 chars)

   Great Opportunity in Flower Hill, Manhasset! His spacious builder’s acre is the perfect place to create your dream home. The existing structure is ready for demolition, offering a fresh start. Located in the Port Washington School District, this property offers the potential for a legal home office (subject to permits). A fantastic chance to build a luxurious home in a prime location! Only Outside Sell for Land Value.

10. 2025-01-12
    historical
11. 2024-09-16
    price $1,200,000
12. 2024-07-11
    listed $1,370,000 Active
13. 2001-07-20
    soldstatus $710,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $23,860 · $1,988/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $24,436 · $2,036/mo
• Expected delta: +$576/yr (+$48/mo · 2.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $139,582
• − Mortgage interest: −$82,903
• − Property taxes: −$23,860
• − Insurance: −$7,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$11,167
• − Management: −$11,167
• − Depreciation: −$43,055
• Taxable loss: −$39,969
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9,593
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Washington Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3623580
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $108,016
• Composite: 67.83/100
• National rank: #362
• State rank: #69 of 590 in NY

Livability — Flower Hill

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #3270

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flower Hill, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,703

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,409,302 people
• By 2030: 1,431,482 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 1,471,607 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 1,502,845 · +6.6%
• By 2075: 1,575,403 · +11.8%
• By 2100: 1,554,356 · +10.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Asian 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Chinese 9% Other Indo-European 8% Korean 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: D+9.5 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.38%
• Current HPI: 288.8947
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+108.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Listed $1,480,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Sold (MLS) $1,350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Sold (MLS) $1,350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,350,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-13 Listed $1,390,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-13 Listed $1,390,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-12 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-16 Price Changed $1,200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-11 Listed $1,370,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $710,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $23,860 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.