9504 Waterville Swanton Rd · Waterville, OH 43566

$289,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,644 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1960 1.10 ac lot Est $363k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• Schools +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BEAUTIFUL HOME WITH COSMETIC UPDATES. COOL OFF THIS SUMMER IN YOUR OWN INGROUND 18'X36' POOL. TOTAL OF 2 ACRES (2 - 1 ACRE PARCELS) WATER SOFTENER OWNED. SHED FOR ALL YOUR GARDEN TOOLS. SHOWER STALL IN LAUNDRY ROOM OFF GARAGE.

Key facts

• 1.1 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Asphalt parking surfaces; 1 garage space (4 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); Multi/split levels; No shared/common walls; Entry level/main floor living areas
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Wood fencing; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Upper-level bedroom (14 x 10); Upper-level Bedroom 2 (12 x 10); Upper-level Bedroom 3 (12 x 9); Lower-level Bedroom 4 (14 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Boiler heating
• Interior features: Cove ceilings; Gas fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer; Laundry on the main level; Utility room on the main level (15 x 8)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $604 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $286k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.5% in Waterville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#185 in OH, #2,867 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Anthony Wayne Local (suburban): math 77% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #49 of 656 in OH (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Waterville Primary School (math 85% / reading 83%, grade A+, #90 of 1,584 statewide, top 6%, 517 students, 10% FRL); Fallen Timbers Middle School (math 82% / reading 84%, grade A+, #29 of 654 statewide, top 5%, 647 students, 11% FRL); Anthony Wayne High School (math 56% / reading 79%, grade B, #136 of 781 statewide, top 17%, 1,324 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools at 11% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 81% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $290k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $285,551 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.92%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $363,324
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6438 Stockton Blvd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,767 (+8%)	9mo	$389,900	$221	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-8,485
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $42,313
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 43566

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,348/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $604

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,536

Max offer price $289,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $804	-5% $704	+0% $604	+5% $503	+10% $403
Rent	-10% $343	-5% $473	+0% $604	+5% $734	+10% $864
Rate	-1.0pp $750	-0.5pp $677	base $604	+0.5pp $528	+1.0pp $452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9425 Newbury Ln Whitehouse, OH	4.0	2.5	2221	$3,300	$1.49	13d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Coming Soon 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Coming Soon 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Coming Soon 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Coming Soon 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,900 Coming Soon 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,900 Coming Soon 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Coming Soon 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,900 Coming Soon 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,900 Coming Soon 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    remarks 215-char remark
11. 2026-06-05
    listed $289,900 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$4,348
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable income: $2,794
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$670
• After-tax cash flow: $6,572/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anthony Wayne Local
• NCES district ID: 3904820
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 81% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $77,345
• Composite: 69.43/100
• National rank: #311
• State rank: #49 of 656 in OH

Livability — Waterville

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #185
• US rank: #2867

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lucas · 437,818 people
• Metro: Toledo, OH
• Population (ZIP): 8,350
• Household income: $108,497
• Rent vs Own: 18.8% rent · 81.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 3.6

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,751 people
• By 2030: 410,187 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 384,019 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 355,125 · -15.6%
• By 2075: 291,683 · -30.7%
• By 2100: 233,670 · -44.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: D (+12.6) · D 55.8% · R 43.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: 31.4pp · 2024: 12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.6 2020: D+16.8 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+30.4 2008: D+31.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.89%
• Current HPI: 214.264
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+70.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $289,900 NORIS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $160,000 NORIS
• 2017-10-05 Sold (MLS) $160,000 NORIS
• 2017-09-27 Price Changed $160,000 NORIS
• 2017-05-30 Listed $159,999 NORIS
• 2000-08-07 Sold (MLS) $160,000 NORIS
• 2000-02-07 Listed $169,900 NORIS